Bush, Clinton Attract Broad Base, Polls Find

In both presidential races, consistent demographic and economic patterns of support have emerged that favor Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton and President Bush, Los Angeles Times exit polls in Texas and Florida have found.

The results suggest that in both contests, the principal challengers to Clinton and Bush are confronting the same dilemma: Former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas and conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan each are attracting support from too narrow a base to overcome their rivals. Both face the prospect of running uphill against demography in the upcoming primaries if they cannot widen their appeal, the poll indicates.

In the Democratic race, demography may not be everything, but it appears to be the main thing. As in earlier contests, the results Tuesday broke sharply along class and racial lines, with Clinton rolling up insurmountable margins among traditional Democratic constituencies: minorities, working-class whites and senior citizens.

In both Texas and Florida, the base of well-educated, affluent whites that carried Tsongas to his early primary victories did not constitute a large enough share of the electorate to offset Clinton’s margins--and in Texas, at least, that base abandoned Tsongas.

Moreover, in Florida, the state where Tsongas had staked his hopes of avoiding a Southern sweep, the former senator found himself pinioned in a demographic squeeze. On one side, Clinton dominated downscale voters; on the other, Tsongas faced poaching from former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., who attracted a substantial minority of upscale voters, particularly those concerned about the environment.

At the same time, Clinton’s efforts to raise doubts about Tsongas’ positions on Israel and Social Security appeared to have paid off. In Florida, Clinton outpolled Tsongas among senior citizens and Jewish voters. Those who listed Social Security as a major factor in their decision--about 1 in every 4 voters--backed Clinton over Tsongas by 61% to 27%.

These commanding results frame the key question looming over the Democratic race after Clinton’s Super Tuesday sweep: Were his strong showings based more on regional or on demographic affinity? That should be answered next Tuesday, as the Democrats face off in the heavily unionized, blue-collar showdown states of Illinois and Michigan.

The Times exit poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 3,102 voters in Florida and 2,551 voters in Texas as they left their polling places; each primary sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In the Republican race, Buchanan also proved incapable of broadening his base of support--with probably fatal results to his candidacy. As in New Hampshire and Georgia, Buchanan’s support was limited to those voters dissatisfied with the country’s basic direction. Just as before, he received virtually no support among those who consider the country on the right track.

In Florida, that familiar equation produced familiar results: Buchanan came in with a little over one-third of the vote. But, in Texas, even those who considered the country off on the wrong track backed Bush by more than 5 to 3.

In some respects, Tuesday’s Democratic results illuminated the powerful pull of regional affinity that the architects of Super Tuesday envisioned when they packed so many Southern primaries into a single day. But the dimensions of Clinton’s victories have clear implications for the coming primaries in the North as well.

The power of Clinton’s regional identification was most starkly apparent in Texas--a state far more Southern in attitude than Florida. Tsongas’ support virtually collapsed in Texas, where even whites with a college education preferred Clinton by a margin of 2 to 1.

And deep doubts about Tsongas were evident when Texas Democratic primary voters were asked if they would back him against President Bush in the fall. Those voters preferred Tsongas over Bush by only 45% to 27%; they backed Clinton over the President by 64% to 21%. In Florida, by contrast, Tsongas and Clinton ran equally well among Democratic primary voters against Bush.

But if the dimensions of Clinton’s victory were greater in Texas, its components were the same as in Florida. In both cases, Clinton constructed his convincing victory out of electoral components that are just as present in Michigan, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania--the Rust Belt contests looming over the next six weeks of the Democratic calendar.

Clinton infused his speeches with populist themes and painted Tsongas as a favorite of Wall Street who would sacrifice economic equity to growth and endanger Social Security. Thus, he methodically crushed Tsongas under the weight of the traditional Democratic base:

* In Florida, Clinton carried voters earning $20,000 or less by more than 2 to 1. In Texas, his margin approached 4 to 1.

* Florida blue-collar voters backed Clinton by a 5-3 margin over Tsongas, with Brown siphoning off 1 in 7. In Texas, voters who work with their hands pulled the lever for Clinton at a rate of more than 4 to 1 over Tsongas; Brown won 1 in 10.

* Black voters overwhelmingly endorsed Clinton: He won 75% of blacks in Florida, compared to just 16% for Tsongas and 8% for Brown. In Texas, Clinton won 8 of every 10 black votes; Tsongas and Brown split the remainder. Black turnout was down only slightly in Florida and not at all in Texas.

* Latino voters in Texas--16% of the Democratic turnout--gave two-thirds of their vote to Clinton, just one-fourth to Tsongas, and a little less than one-tenth to Brown.

* Senior citizens--who constituted fully one-third of the electorate in Florida and nearly one-fifth in Texas--backed Clinton over Tsongas by 5 to 3 in Florida, and by more than 4 to 1 in Texas. Brown attracted just 10% of seniors in Florida and only 2% in Texas.

* Finally, union members, who made up one-fifth of the voters in Florida, endorsed Clinton by 2 to 1; in Texas, where almost 3 in 10 came from organized labor, Clinton’s margin approached 5 to 1. Brown won a respectable 16% of union members in Florida, but just half that in Texas.

Tsongas’ base simply was not broad enough to withstand these crushing margins. Tsongas has relied primarily on white, professional voters from the outset, attracting suburbanites with a blend of pro-business economics and cultural liberalism. That mixture has not proved nearly as alluring for blue-collar whites or minorities, who typically take more populist positions on both economic and social issues.

Even so, Tsongas’ message--centered on opposition to a tax cut for the middle class and in favor of a capital-gains reduction for investors--served him well in states like New Hampshire and Maryland, where voters with a college or advanced degree made up half the electorate. But its limitations were vividly demonstrated in Florida and Texas, where such well-educated voters represented about 40% of the total. Moreover, in these two pivotal Southern contests, Tsongas’ margins among college-educated voters eroded: He narrowly held onto the group in Florida, but lost it by more than 2 to 1 in Texas.

In Florida, Tsongas’ weakness was compounded by Brown’s strength. Brown ran better with upscale voters, suggesting that his showing hurt Tsongas more than Clinton. Brown carried just 14% of Florida blue-collar voters and only 9% of those with a high school education or less. But he took 18% of both white-collar voters and college graduates.

One uncertainty after Clinton’s Southern sweep is whether the allegations of marital infidelity and draft-dodging will carry more weight in the North than they did in the South. In both Texas and Florida, just 8% of voters cited either of these allegations as a major factor in their decision. These small groups gave Tsongas a strong majority in Florida, and a less decisive one in Texas. But there was no gender gap in Clinton’s support in either state, and he carried military veterans by decisive margins in both contests.

The Republican results underscored the limits of Buchanan’s ability to expand his base beyond an economic protest vote. As in the earlier contests, the strongest predictor of preferences in Texas and Florida was the voters’ view of their personal economic situation and the nation’s general direction.

Three in 10 Florida Republican voters said they were worse off than four years ago; they preferred Buchanan by a 5-4 margin. The one-quarter who said they were better off backed Bush, 73% to 27%. Those who considered their condition unchanged gave Bush essentially the same margin.

In Texas, only one-fourth of Republican primary voters said they were worse off, and even they stayed with the President, 46% to 35%. Just over one-third said their situation had improved: They lined up with Bush by more than 3 to 1. Four in 10 said their situation had not changed, and they gave Bush a margin of 4 to 1.

Buchanan’s gender gap diminished Tuesday, but for the wrong reason: His support among women did not rise; his backing among men fell. He carried just 19% of women’s votes in Texas and 32% in Florida; among men, he got 28% in Texas and 40% in Florida.

Once again, ideology was much less of a factor, particularly in Florida. There, Buchanan attracted virtually no more support from those who called themselves conservatives than he did from liberals or moderates. In Texas, Buchanan did somewhat better among conservatives, though that could not have been much comfort: He carried 3 in 10 of self-identified conservatives, almost twice his showing among moderates.

In recent weeks, he has sharply criticized federal funding of allegedly pornographic art, but only about 1 in 10 voters in either state said that issue was a major factor. And, in any case, they gave Bush substantial majorities, though Buchanan ran ahead of his statewide total in Texas with voters concerned about pornography.

Buchanan drew more blood on issues with clear racial overtones. About 1 in 10 voters in both states cited immigration as a major factor; Buchanan won 41% of their votes in Texas, 47% in Florida.

Similarly, about 1 in every 10 Republican voters in Florida, and 1 in 8 in Texas, cited racial hiring quotas as a major factor in their decision. In Florida, voters concerned about that issue preferred Bush by only 51% to 49%; in Texas, they backed the President by just 47% to 37%.

Assistant Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus contributed to this account.

TIMES POLL: The Message From Florida and Texas

To help understand voter choices, The Times questioned voters in Florida and Texas about their picks. The poll is based on interviews with 3,160 Democratic primary voters and 2,493 Republican primary voters at 50 polling places in Florida and at 71 polling places in Texas. The margin of error for the total samples is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The error margin for subgroups may be higher.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: FLORIDA

WHY DID YOU SUPPORT YOUR CANDIDATE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Like him and his policies 61 58 56 He is the best of a bad lot 33 36 24 To send a protest message 6 6 20

WHAT DID YOU LIKE MOST ABOUT YOUR CANDIDATE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Cares about people like me 25 13 17 Experience 15 8 23 He thinks like me on the issues 17 22 23 He has values like mine 6 14 15 No doubts over his ethics 5 19 10 Strong leadership qualities 19 8 9 Can win in November 13 5 1 Can bring needed change 25 20 20 Stands up for convictions 6 13 12 Trust him more than others 11 27 14 Understands this part of country 3 -- 1

WHAT ISSUES WERE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN DECIDING HOW TO VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Education 35 28 31 Jobs/The economy 69 71 57 The environment 6 10 21 Taxes 17 20 20 Foreign trade 3 2 2 Health care 37 35 32 Poverty 2 1 4 Death penalty 1 1 1 Crime/Drugs 3 3 3 Foreign affairs 1 1 2

WHAT’S A BIGGER PROBLEM RIGHT NOW?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Rich are not paying enough taxes 49 37 43 People getting welfare who don’t deserve it 13 16 12 Both equally 33 34 33 Neither is a problem 5 13 12

IF BUSH RUNS AGAINST CLINTON IN NOVEMBER, HOW WILL YOU VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Bush 6 27 26 Clinton 87 48 57 Not sure 6 20 13 Wouldn’t vote for President 1 5 4

IF BUSH RUNS AGAINST TSONGAS IN NOVEMBER, HOW WILL YOU VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Bush 16 12 24 Tsongas 57 84 56 Not sure 18 4 18 Wouldn’t vote for President 9 -- 2

WHICH THINGS INFLUENCED YOUR VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Candidate’s position on Social Security 28 18 16 His economic proposals 54 59 49 Questions on Clinton’s draft status 2 10 7 Charges that Clinton had an extramarital affair 2 9 10 Candidate’s position on immigration na na na Candidate’s position on pornography na na na Charges that Buchanan is an extremist na na na Bush’s leadership in Gulf War na na na Candidate’s position on hiring quotas na na na Bush’s flip-flop on taxes na na na

Percentages may not add up to 100% because results for some candidates and voter groups are not displayed. NA=not available.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll, March 10, 1992

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: TEXAS

WHY DID YOU SUPPORT YOUR CANDIDATE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Like him and his policies 64 54 52 He is the best of a bad lot 30 36 37 To send a protest message 6 10 11

WHAT DID YOU LIKE MOST ABOUT YOUR CANDIDATE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Cares about people like me 20 14 17 Experience 19 11 11 He thinks like me on the issues 13 17 26 He has values like mine 9 15 7 No doubts over his ethics 3 16 4 Strong leadership qualities 25 13 9 Can win in November 8 5 2 Can bring needed change 23 16 25 Stands up for convictions 6 16 16 Trust him more than others 9 23 23 Understands this part of country 7 1 8

WHAT ISSUES WERE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN DECIDING HOW TO VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Education 31 27 23 Jobs/The economy 70 71 68 The environment 5 6 23 Taxes 20 26 21 Foreign trade 4 4 3 Health care 22 19 19 Poverty 5 5 5 Death penalty 2 1 -- Crime/Drugs 8 7 7 Foreign affairs 2 5 2

WHAT’S A BIGGER PROBLEM RIGHT NOW?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Rich are not paying enough taxes 44 31 36 People getting welfare who don’t deserve it 18 13 20 Both equally 30 47 36 Neither is a problem 8 9 8

IF BUSH RUNS AGAINST CLINTON IN NOVEMBER, HOW WILL YOU VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Bush 9 28 16 Clinton 85 48 52 Not sure 6 19 23 Wouldn’t vote for President -- 5 9

IF BUSH RUNS AGAINST TSONGAS IN NOVEMBER, HOW WILL YOU VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Bush 23 20 15 Tsongas 45 68 50 Not sure 26 12 29 Wouldn’t vote for President 6 -- 6

WHICH THINGS INFLUENCED YOUR VOTE?

Clinton Tsongas Brown Voters Voters Voters Candidate’s position on Social Security 20 12 12 His economic proposals 49 56 42 Questions on Clinton’s draft status 3 9 6 Charges that Clinton had an extramarital affair 3 14 9 Candidate’s position on immigration na na na Candidate’s position on pornography na na na Charges that Buchanan is an extremist na na na Bush’s leadership in Gulf War na na na Candidate’s position on hiring quotas na na na Bush’s flip-flop on taxes na na na

Percentages may not add up to 100% because results for some candidates and voter groups are not displayed. NA=not available.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll, March 10, 1992

GOP PRIMARY

WHY DID YOU SUPPORT YOUR CANDIDATE?

FLORIDA TEXAS Bush Buchanan Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters Like him and his policies 68 24 73 47 He is the best of a bad lot 31 15 26 13 To send a protest message 1 61 1 40

WHAT DID YOU LIKE MOST ABOUT YOUR CANDIDATE?

FLORIDA TEXAS Bush Buchanan Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters Cares about people like me 7 8 7 13 Experience 61 5 55 4 He thinks like me on the issues 10 19 12 36 He has values like mine 13 15 15 29 No doubts over his ethics 13 7 14 7 Strong leadership qualities 22 8 25 8 Can win in November 11 1 10 1 Can bring needed change 3 22 2 20 Stands up for convictions 7 18 6 22 Trust him more than others 18 7 19 7 Understands this part of country 1 1 2 1

WHAT ISSUES WERE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN DECIDING HOW TO VOTE?

FLORIDA TEXAS Bush Buchanan Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters Education 25 19 25 14 Jobs/The economy 52 65 53 73 The environment 6 9 5 3 Taxes 25 26 21 43 Foreign trade 7 12 8 8 Health care 28 23 14 10 Poverty 1 1 1 1 Death penalty 2 1 1 1 Crime/Drugs 9 7 21 10 Foreign affairs 16 6 19 4

WHAT’S A BIGGER PROBLEM RIGHT NOW?

FLORIDA TEXAS Bush Buchanan Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters Rich are not paying enough taxes 19 25 14 19 People getting welfare who don’t deserve it 39 31 39 43 Both equally 34 35 38 27 Neither is a problem 8 9 9 11

IF BUSH RUNS AGAINST CLINTON IN NOVEMBER, HOW WILL YOU VOTE?

FLORIDA TEXAS Bush Buchanan Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters Bush 93 43 93 64 Clinton 3 32 1 13 Not sure 4 19 5 17 Wouldn’t vote for President -- 6 1 6

IF BUSH RUNS AGAINST TSONGAS IN NOVEMBER, HOW WILL YOU VOTE?

FLORIDA TEXAS Bush Buchanan Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters Bush 89 37 92 56 Tsongas 6 41 2 21 Not sure 5 16 6 19 Wouldn’t vote for President -- 6 -- 4

WHICH THINGS INFLUENCED YOUR VOTE?

FLORIDA TEXAS Bush Buchanan Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters Candidate’s position on Social Security 21 11 13 7 His economic proposals 38 41 36 55 Questions on Clinton’s draft status na na na na Charges that Clinton had an extramarital affair na na na na Candidate’s position on immigration 10 17 8 19 Candidate’s position on pornography 9 12 11 16 Charges that Buchanan is an extremist 16 3 15 2 Bush’s leadership in Gulf War 56 5 55 5 Candidate’s position on hiring quotas 7 12 9 19 Bush’s flip-flop on taxes 2 55 2 69

Percentages may not add up to 100% because results for some candidates and voter groups are not displayed. NA=not available.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll, March 10, 1992