Bush Loses His Majority in a Republican Bastion : Times O.C. Poll: Economy is dragging President down. Fewer than half of voters support his reelection.

President Bush’s inability to stabilize the nation’s struggling economy has cost him dearly among local voters, with fewer than half of those surveyed in a Times Orange County Poll saying they would support the President if an election were held today.

Just last September, almost two-thirds of the voters in this crucial Republican stronghold said they were inclined to vote for the President and even more said he was doing a fair or good job in handling the economy.

But in the past six months, Bush’s support in Orange County has taken a sharp dive. Today, the number of local voters who describe Bush’s handling of the economy as “poor” has more than doubled to 54% and the number who plan to support his reelection has dwindled to just 47%.

Even though Orange County’s economy is better than most of California’s, with an unemployment rate about half that of the state’s, county voters still said the issue is a major concern. Nearly nine in 10 voters who said they don’t plan to support the President’s reelection are also critical of his performance on the economy.

The Times Orange County Poll of 449 voters was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates from March 4 through Sunday. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 5%.

Baldassare said Orange County is a bellwether for testing voter support among California’s Republican faithful and its Democratic “swing” voters.

“So far, a sizable group of Republicans are abandoning ship, while a relatively small number of Democrats are leaning toward Bush,” he said.

The poll found the President’s failing support had reached record-low levels even among Orange County Republicans, a crucial voting bloc for any statewide GOP candidate.

In a margin similar to the protest vote being attributed to Republican challenger Patrick J. Buchanan in recent primaries, 27% of the local GOP voters said they were not inclined to support Bush’s reelection, compared to 62% who said they would.

On Super Tuesday this week, Buchanan received 27% of the vote in the eight states that held primaries, with Bush getting 69%.

Buchanan has vowed to continue his insurgent challenge of the President through California’s June 2 primary, promising that his campaign will create a divisive battle within the state’s Republican Party and will give a voice to conservative GOP members who do not feel represented by Bush or by Republican Gov. Pete Wilson.

But in a flash of good news for the President, The Times Orange County Poll found that Buchanan was highly unpopular among Republicans--even in the headquarters of California’s conservative wing. Barely one in five Republican voters had a favorable opinion of Buchanan, compared to 43% who had an unfavorable opinion.

Buchanan drew an unfavorable rating from nearly half of the county’s Democrats as well as from a sizable number of voters in all income, age and gender categories.

Bush’s favorable rating in Orange County also took a drastic dive in the last six months, slipping below 50% for the first time since he took office in January, 1989. Only 49% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Bush, compared to 76% last September.

Among Republicans, Bush’s favorable rating rose to 61%, but even in this group one in four were unfavorable.

Bush rated best among young and affluent voters, and he fared slightly better among men than women. Voters with annual incomes of more than $75,000 were Bush’s happiest constituents. That category was the most likely to vote for the President, the least critical of his performance on the economy and the most confident that he will be reelected.

The findings in Orange County are similar to those in recent national polls in which the President’s support has also been falling for the past year, with a sharp drop in the past few months.

A nationwide poll just two weeks ago conducted by the Times Mirror Center for the People and the Press found Bush’s approval rating at just 39%. The same poll also found Bush losing the election to an unnamed Democratic nominee.

Despite all of their complaints, The Times Orange County Poll found that most county voters still believe the President will be reelected.

Even 58% of the Democrats--perhaps reflecting a lack of confidence in their own presidential candidates--said Bush will be returned to the White House. More than 80% of Orange County Republicans expect the President to be reelected.

The poll also found a direct link between Bush’s declining popularity and increasing apprehension with the economy.

The President was given good or excellent marks on his handling of the economy by just 13% of voters overall and only 18% of Republicans. That compares to 37% in the September survey who said the President was doing at least a good job on the economy.

At the same time, 70% of those who said the President was doing poorly on the economy also said they were not inclined to vote for him.

During his first year in office, just 18% of Orange County voters said Bush was doing a poor job in handling the economy. Today, the survey found 54% rating Bush’s performance as poor.

The results were similar when voters were asked about the President’s handling of the federal budget and taxes. Just 16% said he was doing a good or excellent job on those issues, while 45% rated him as poor.

The disapproval of Bush’s performance on the economy also crosses all the categories of age, income, gender and party registration, with the most criticism coming from older voters and Democrats.

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Economic Barometer

The majority of county voters who rate President Bush’s handling of the economy as “poor” say they are not inclined to vote for him in November; among those who rate him at least “fair” on the economy, an even bigger majority say they probably will vote for him.

Give Bush Poor Rating on Economy Not inclined to vote for him: 70% Inclined to vote for him: 19% Don’t know: 11%

Give Bush at Least Fair Rating on Economy Inclined to vote for him: 80% Not inclined to vote for him: 12% Don’t know: 8% Source: Times Orange County Poll

Bush’s Popularity Plunges

Orange County voters have an increasingly unfavorable opinion of President Bush, but believe he will be reelected.

Reelection

“If the November presidential election were held today, would you be inclined, or not inclined, to vote for the re-election of George Bush?”

Sept. ’91 March ’92 Inclined 63% 47% Not inclined 24% 43% Don’t know 13% 10%

Percentage saying “inclined”

Sept. ’91 March ’92 Change Republicans 82% 62% -20 Democrats 35% 23% -12 Men 67% 51% -16 Women 58% 42% -16

Popularity

“Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of George Bush?”

Sept. ’91 March ’92 Change Republicans 86% 61% -25 Democrats 63% 27% -36 Men 77% 52% -25 Women 75% 46% -29

Jobs and the Economy

“How would you rate the performance of President George Bush in handling jobs and the economy?” Poor: 54% Fair: 32% Good: 11% Excellent: 2% Don’t know: 1%

Electability

“In your opinion, will George Bush be re-elected in November, or not?”

Yes No DK Republicans 81% 13% 6% Democrats 58% 31% 11% Men 77% 19% 4% Women 68% 20% 12%

Pat Buchanan

“Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Patrick Buchanan?”

Unfavorable: 44% Don’t know: 37% Favorable: 19%

Favorable Unfavorable DK Republicans 22% 43% 35% Democrats 13% 45% 42% Men 20% 51% 29% Women 18% 37% 45%

Source: Times Orange County Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, surveyed 449 registered voters over a five-day period ending Sunday. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 5%. For the subgroups of Democrats or Republicans, the margin of error is larger.