47% in Orange County Back Bush, Poll Says

The nation’s struggling economy has cost President Bush dearly among voters in the Republican stronghold of Orange County, with fewer than half of those surveyed in a Times Orange County Poll saying they would support him if an election were held today.

Just last September, almost two-thirds of the county’s voters said they were inclined to vote for Bush, and even more said he was doing a fair or good job in handling the economy.

But in the last six months, Bush’s support in Orange County has taken a sharp dive. Today, only 47% of local voters of all parties say they plan to support his reelection, and the number who describe Bush’s handling of the economy as “poor” has more than doubled to 54%.

Even though Orange County’s economy is better than that of most of California--with an unemployment rate about half that of the state’s 8.7% figure for February--county voters still said the issue is a major concern. And nearly 9 in 10 of the voters who said they don’t plan to support the President’s reelection are critical of his performance on the economy.

Bush’s favorable rating in Orange County also took a drastic dive in the last six months, slipping below 50% for the first time since he took office in January, 1989. Only 49% of all voters surveyed said they had a favorable opinion of Bush, compared to 76% in September.

Among those Republicans surveyed, Bush’s favorable rating was 61%, but even in this group slightly more than 1 in 4 were unfavorable.

A strong showing in Orange County likely will be crucial to Bush’s prospects of winning California and its 54 electoral votes in November’s general election. In the 1988 presidential race, he carried the county by a margin of more 300,000 votes over Democrat Michael S. Dukakis. His margin in carrying the state was about 350,000 votes.

Amid all the bad news for the President in the Orange County poll, the survey found that most county voters still believe Bush will be reelected.

Even 58% of the Democrats questioned--perhaps reflecting a lack of confidence in their own presidential candidates--said Bush will be returned to the White House. More than 80% of Orange County Republicans expect Bush to be reelected.

The poll’s findings are similar to recent national polls in which Bush’s support has also been falling for the past year, with a sharp drop in the last few months.

A nationwide poll just two weeks ago conducted by the Times Mirror Center for the People and the Press found Bush’s approval rating at just 39%.

The Times Orange County Poll of 449 voters was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates March 4-8. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 5%.