THE NBA / MARK HEISLER : Lakers Can Win by Losing With Help in the Lottery

Rebuilding the Lakers: Of course, they could still make the NBA playoffs.

On the other hand, as someone once said, the race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong but that’s the way to bet.

Even if they make it, what then?

First-round knockout. You have a picture of this team beating the Portland Trail Blazers on their home court?

Then they would draft 15th, behind 11 lottery teams and three Eastern playoff teams with losing records.

No, the Lakers are far better off in the lottery.

They were thin before Magic Johnson went away. Whether or not he returns, they need players, and only the draft can provide them.

Trades?

Unless the team you’re dealing with gets brain lock--see the Seattle SuperSonics’ Sedale Threatt deal--you have to give something to get something. What good is it to acquire, say, Willie Burton, if it costs A.C. Green? The Lakers need depth.

Free agents?

Not only can’t you trade in this salary cap-dominated league any more, you can’t find a free agent. Two years ago, the Lakers pursued Hot Rod Williams and settled for Sam Perkins.

Here’s this summer’s selection:

CENTERS--Randy Breuer, Wayne Cooper, James Donaldson, Dave Feitl, Eric Leckner, Tree Rollins, James Edwards.

POWER FORWARDS--Mark Acres, Cadillac Anderson, Scott Hastings, Larry Smith, Herb Williams.

SMALL FORWARDS--Tony Brown, Rod Higgins, Brad Lohaus, Xavier McDaniel, Kiki Vandeweghe, Otis Smith, Paul Pressey.

SHOOTING GUARDS--Danny Ainge, Bob Hansen, Jon Sundvold, Mitchell Wiggins, David Wingate, Gerald Wilkins, Terry Teagle.

POINT GUARDS--John Bagley, Brad Davis, Winston Garland, Rickey Green, Nate McMillan, Rory Sparrow, Danny Young.

THE PING-PONG BALL, PLEASE

You Laker fans unfamiliar with the lottery rules can ask a Clipper fan, or read on.

The team with the worst record gets 11 balls in the hopper, the second-worst 10 and so on. The 11th team--the Lakers if they miss the playoffs--gets one.

Thus, the odds on them getting the first pick would be 65-1.

Their odds on getting the second would be 64-1.

Their odds on getting the third would be 63-1.

Their odds on getting any of the top three picks would be 22-1.

After three draws, teams draft by inverse order of finish.

Around the league, the nightmare scenario has the Lakers making the lottery, drawing the first pick and selecting Shaquille O’Neal, restoring them in a stroke to their former greatness and glamour.

Or as an East Coast reporter said last week: “The NBA office is probably beveling a Ping-Pong ball with the Lakers’ name on it right now.”

THE DRAFT

Another key is that this is expected to be a deep draft . . . with a drop-off in talent around the No. 11 choice.

Much depends on which undergraduates declare. The pros are, shall we say, intensely interested in O’Neal, Jim Jackson and Harold Miner.

Without denying anyone their days of innocence, let’s say the trio declares for the draft and the Lakers pick 11th.

Remember, the following will undergo several shake-ups after the NCAA tournament, predraft workouts and the lottery.

Here’s the way it looks now (heights are college listings; players usually turn out to be an inch smaller):

1. O’Neal, LSU. There’s still talk he won’t declare, but this 7-foot-1, 290-pounder looks like Gulliver posting up the Lilliputians. What he hasn’t learned by now, Dale Brown isn’t going to teach him.

2. Alonzo Mourning, Georgetown. He’s supposedly unpolished on offense--but so were Patrick Ewing and Dikembe Mutombo. Maybe it’s those collapsing zone defenses. Mourning is a legitimate 6-9 and takes no prisoners.

3. Jackson, Ohio State. Big, strong 6-6 guard, takeover guy.

4. Christian Laettner, Duke. People were off him early, remembering the Danny Ferry disaster. But he’s no Danny Ferry.

5. Malik Sealy, St. John’s. Silky 6-8 small forward.

6. Tom Gugliotta, North Carolina State. A guard who spurted to 6-9 and bulked up to 230. Still has backcourt skills and he’s not soft.

7. Adam Keefe, Stanford. Not explosive, but a 6-9 horse with fundamentals, good work habits, shooting and even ballhandling skills.

8. Miner, USC. Scouts project him as high as No. 5. The “Baby Jordan” stuff is overdone, but he can play.

9. Todd Day, Arkansas. A 6-7 swingman with a checkered off-court history, considered the best athlete in the draft.

10. Walt Williams, Maryland. A 6-8 guard with an all-around game.

That would leave the Lakers to choose from among:

--Don MacLean, UCLA, who helped himself with a businesslike senior season. Despite 6-10 size and unquestioned scoring ability, scouts wonder if he’s physical enough.

--Byron Houston, Oklahoma State, whom a scout calls “a poor man’s Larry Johnson.” A 6-6 240-pounder with a nasty disposition, he was ranked around No. 5, but scouts are diving off him.

--Anthony Peeler, Missouri, an explosive 6-4 shooting guard. Jerry West says he wants backcourt help.

--Laphonso Ellis, Notre Dame, an unpolished, explosive 6-9 forward.

--Bryant Stith, Virginia, a 6-5 all-around swingman.

LAND OF OPPORTUNITY

Alexander Gomelsky, who coached the Soviet Union in five Olympic Games, including the team that knocked off the U.S. in 1988, has forsworn Moscow and now lives in San Diego.

He serves as co-coach of High Five America, a team made up of Russian and American players including ’88 gold medalists Vladimir Tkatchenko, Sergei Tarakhanov and Igor Milieniks. High Five America puts on anti-drug and anti-alcohol-abuse programs and plays exhibitions.

Gomelsky has a grown son living in Chicago. He has a young son he hopes to educate in an American university.

He is also taken with his new selection of games.

“Every day I watch TV,” he says. “Very interesting competition. My wife is angry with me because all the time on TV, only basketball.”

FACES AND FIGURES

Bad karma: Seattle’s Benoit Benjamin broke a bone in his right hand and might miss the rest of the season. Nobody is sure how he suffered the injury, but it might have come from karate-chopping Golden State’s Sarunas Marciulionis at the basket, for which he was assessed a flagrant foul. Benjamin felled Marciulionis with a double chop in their previous meeting. After the most recent attack, Marciulionis arose and finished with 30 points in a Warrior victory at Seattle. . . . News from the Clip Joint, or the competition’s getting rough around here: The Sports Arena has installed a cappuccino machine. . . . Pop quiz: Of the top 31 assist men, 25 are point guards. Name the other six.

As expected, Michael Jordan’s agent, David Falk, surrendered in his squabble with the U.S. Olympic team as fast as his little legs could backpedal. Basically, the Olympic people told Falk to shove his merchandising conflicts. Falk went public, raising the possibility that Jordan might quit the team. But Falk knows Jordan can’t earn $17 million annually in endorsements and stiff the President and the Olympic team in the same year. . . . Lest we confuse him with an idealist or philanthropist, this from Jordan: “If anybody makes money, then everybody makes money. That’s what I’m all about.”

Olympic corner: Mark Aguirre, whose father is Mexican, is considering playing for Mexico in the Barcelona Games this summer. “The downside of this is I can’t compete for the U.S.,” Aguirre said. The way things are going, he barely competes for Detroit. Upset that the Pistons renegotiated Orlando Woolridge’s contract but not his, Aguirre missed a recent shoot-around. A Detroit TV station said he cleaned out his locker and left, but he was back for that night’s game. He said he had to stay with his wife and daughter, who were ill, and wasn’t able to call in. . . . Capitalism, it’s tricky: The Atlanta Hawks’ Alexander Volkov, an ’88 gold medalist, expects to play for the Commonwealth of Independent States, which was told that the NBA requires it to buy insurance: Said Volkov: “They say, ‘OK, but if Sasha not injured, can have money back?’ ”

Authoritarianism, it’s not what it used to be: New Jersey Coach Bill Fitch fined Derrick Coleman $1,000 for coming late to a Net practice. Coleman said he’d give him $5,000 to cover this one and the next four. . . . Cleveland center Brad Daugherty, after Cavalier Coach Lenny Wilkens won his 800th game: “Either he’s real old or he’s a great coach.” . . . Ejection of the week: Charles Barkley drew his second technical foul with 1:51 left and the Philadelphia 76ers down by five points at Detroit. . . . Quiz answer: Scottie Pippen (7.0 per game), Clyde Drexler (6.8), Larry Bird (6.4), Michael Jordan (6.2), Ron Harper (5.2) and Mitch Richmond (4.9).