Study Cites Economic Harm if Initiative OKd : Santa Clarita: The slow-growth measure would cost jobs, taxes and other revenues, according to a report commissioned by opponents.

Opponents of a Santa Clarita slow-growth initiative released results Wednesday of a gloomy economic impact study that they plan to use in their campaign to defeat the measure.

The study, prepared by a USC research team for the Santa Clarita Valley Chamber of Commerce, predicts that the growth-control measure will cost the city 21,652 new jobs, $7.8 million in sales tax revenues and an unspecified percentage of $704 million in developer fees by 2002.

At a news conference, business leaders urged voters to consider the economic costs of Measure A when voting April 14. The measure would allow Santa Clarita to approve only 475 new housing units annually for the next 10 years.

“What USC found is alarming to us,” said John Bement, president of the chamber, which paid $20,000 for the study. “This is a harsh message at a time when our community and our nation are seeking ways out of a serious recession.”

But some academicians criticized the way USC researchers made their forecast, which relied on federal statistics and a computer-generated forecasting model.

“The results in studies like these are just estimates based on extrapolations of trends, and they’re highly speculative,” said John Landis, an assistant professor of regional and city planning at UC Berkeley.

Landis, who has done extensive research on growth controls, said: “You just cannot accurately predict the consequences of growth controls before the fact.”

None of the more than 70 cities and counties in California that have enacted growth-control measures have experienced dire economic consequences as a result, Landis said. Even the USC study does not predict losses of existing jobs. “It’s just saying you won’t gain as many jobs as you would,” he said.

But Landis said that if the USC study is correct and more housing units are built in the unincorporated portions of the surrounding Santa Clarita Valley as a result of Measure A, “that would be worrisome.”

This is because of the so-called displacement effect, in which areas surrounding a slow-growth city continue to grow, increasing the burden on the city’s roads and schools without providing additional revenues. The effect has been shown to hurt some cities in the Central Valley, he said.

The USC study does not estimate how many homes and apartments would be built outside the city during the 10-year life of the measure. But it predicts that if the measure passes, Santa Clarita’s population will grow about 28% to 146,175 residents, which would be 67,250 less than the city would have without growth controls. The study also estimates that under the cap, a maximum of 5,250 units would be built, about 23,378 less than if the measure fails.

Although the measure would only restrict residential construction, it would severely impede commercial and industrial development as well, the study said. Most of the projected job losses would be in retail and personal services.

Those losses would disproportionately affect low-income residents and could be construed as discriminatory, said Peter Gordon, head of the USC research team that conducted the study.

Gordon defended his study, saying: “There is no pretense that what we have is the final answer. . . . Knowing what the tab is will help voters make an informed decision.”

Proponents of Measure A criticized the study, calling it biased. Gordon has prepared other reports that reached similar conclusions, including one that predicted severe economic consequences from Pasadena’s 1989 growth-control measure, Measure A supporters said.

“All this report tells us is what we already know--that large, metropolitan cities produce jobs and income, and that smaller, suburban and rural communities like we want to preserve in Santa Clarita produce less,” said John Drew, co-author of the initiative and president of Citizens Assn. for a Responsible Residential Initiative on Growth.

But Measure A opponents said they will use the study results in campaign literature and make copies of it available to the public through the chamber.