Buchanan’s Sunset Journey to California Seen as the Dawn of ’96 Presidential Bid : Republicans: The state could bring Bush’s challenger a wealth of grass-roots support and an early start on fund raising.

Patrick J. Buchanan arrives in California next week to run for President. And not necessarily for 1992. Here in the biggest and most delegate-heavy of all the states, his campaign is seen by political experts as an attempt to solidify both grass-roots support and a fund-raising base for a bid four years from now.

It is here, in California’s June 2 primary, that Buchanan wants to muster all the power left in his dwindling candidacy; here where he has promised to talk about issues and not rely on the vitriolic campaigning that marked his earlier forays against President Bush.

Burton Pines, senior vice president of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, describes California as “a big megaphone” for Buchanan with particular importance to his rumored interest in a 1996 presidential bid.

After California, Pines said, “Pat will end up with a huge list of names and also a good donor list.”

“If you’re taking a look at the starting lineup for 1996, at who’s going to have the funding bases and the grass-roots support, it’s only Buchanan and the vice president,” Pines said. “In effect, as of last week Buchanan was really no longer running against Bush but running against all the other contenders in 1996.”

The former television commentator has not formally announced his intentions for 1996. His campaign’s political director, Paul Erickson, said Buchanan will decide whether to run by the end of the year.

Bush campaign officials have largely dismissed Buchanan as a threat in California. Senior campaign adviser Charles Black said Buchanan will find the state too expensive a place to wage a full-blown campaign.

“To run the kind of campaign that Pat ran in New Hampshire and Georgia, ad-wise, would cost $5-$6 million in California.” Without that money, which Buchanan does not presently have on hand, the challenger would be “shouting in the forest,” Black added.

Despite Buchanan’s pledge to take the high road, however, there is considerable dispute among state Republicans as to the effect of his presence here. Some are concerned that he could reopen the wounds inflicted on Bush in the early primaries. While that is not likely to be crucial in June, any lingering concerns about Bush could carry over to harm the President in the general election.

“You run an aggressive, spirited, tough campaign against the incumbent only 5 1/2 months before the end of the campaign . . . ?” asked Sacramento-based conservative consultant Brian Lungren, with a shiver of concern. Lungren said that it is an open question whether that could cost Bush a second term.

“That possibility has to be very seriously considered,” said Lungren, adding: “Without California, George Bush cannot win the White House again.”

Others play down Buchanan’s effect, contending that he has mortally wounded himself during the hard-fought primaries, in which a host of his controversial statements have been publicized.

“There’s a positive side to the Buchanan message that goes to less government, less taxation, the traditional conservative themes,” said Steven A. Merksamer, a Sacramento attorney and political veteran with ties to the Bush campaign.

“But there’s a dark side to that message that has clouded and overwhelmed the positive side and made Buchanan an unacceptable vehicle for the expression of frustration. And that dark side relates to the nativism and isolationism and racism that is seemingly manifest in a lot of what Buchanan has had to say. Because of that, I don’t think he’s going to do well out here.”

The independent California Poll aptly illustrated this week that Bush has more to fear in the general election than in the primary. Registered Republicans favored Bush over Buchanan by a 75% to 16% margin, statistically unchanged since January. But against Democratic opponent Bill Clinton, Bush’s margin had shrunk to 6%, down from 15% two months ago. And against Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., the margin narrowed from 22% to 13%.

Buchanan will campaign in California next week for the first time since he essentially conceded the 1992 nomination to Bush. Campaign aides said he will speak to the California Republican Assembly convention in Newport Beach on Friday, and he will open his Orange County headquarters Saturday.

Buchanan plans to spend two to three days in California between April 13 and May 5. Then he will begin campaigning here full time, political director Erickson said.

That venue is likely to be the first test of Buchanan’s spoken desire to ratchet down his rhetoric. The conservative organization is not particularly fond of Bush nor of his California campaign chairman, Gov. Pete Wilson.

The men clashed earlier this month when Buchanan vowed to turn the California race into “the Antietam of the Republican Party,” a reference to the bloodiest battle of the Civil War. In return, Wilson, seen by the former commentator’s forces as a prime antagonist, accused Buchanan of waging a “downright racist and anti-Semitic” campaign.

Beyond the potential conflicts with Wilson, there is some question whether Buchanan’s definition of a positive campaign fits the expectations of the most optimistic Bush partisans.

The day after the New Hampshire primary, for example, Buchanan contended that he had run a positive campaign for the two weeks preceding that contest. In fact, blistering anti-Bush commercials had been broadcast virtually until Election Day.

Buchanan’s stated reason for staying in the 1992 race--to keep Bush on what Buchanan perceives as the right path--would seem to dictate discussion of some of the more contentious Republican issues, such as tax hikes and social policy.

Erickson indicated in an interview that while Buchanan may not take Bush on personally in California, he will focus attention on his own conservative agenda.

“Those ideals will be strongly offensive to people like Pete Wilson and the Bush campaign hierarchy,” Erickson said.

Republicans who are sympathetic to Bush have taken heart from the increasingly nasty tenor of the Democratic race, which holds the possibility of overshadowing any Buchanan criticisms of Bush.

“Frankly, the potential divisiveness on the other side of the fence looks like it will have a much larger impact on the general election,” said Dan Schnur, Wilson’s director of communications.

But, he added, “the one thing that we can’t afford is any distraction . . . there’s too much that Republicans in California need to accomplish this year.”