Ross Perot as Nation’s Man on Horseback : Outsider: A self-made billionaire seems poised to launch an independent presidential campaign. And the public has been encouraging.

Businessman, buccaneer, self-made billionaire--but can H. Ross Perot make a serious run for the White House? In an ordinary election year, the question would be laughed off the table. Not so in 1992.

A grass-roots campaign is catching fire among people who see Perot as a knight in shining armor, come to rescue them from the scoundrels and scalawags ruining the country.

Perot could never live up to all their dreams, but if he does run--as now seems likely--he will shake up the dialogue of the campaign. He might change the dynamics of the race, which makes both parties skittish. And, who knows? Despite huge odds, he might just win.

The unofficial kickoff came five weeks ago, when Perot appeared on “Larry King Live.” Pressed on a presidential bid, Perot issued a challenge: He would run if citizens in all 50 states organized petitions and entered his name on the ballot as an independent candidate. CNN switchboards lit up with one of the heaviest responses the network has ever received. Since then, interest has ballooned.

Perot first opened 30 telephone lines in Dallas to receive calls of support on an 800-number, then expanded to 100 lines, manned by volunteers. An aide reports that, after an appearance Tuesday on the Phil Donahue Show, some 500,000 people called in a 24-hour period. An interview on “60 Minutes” tonight will presumably generate even larger numbers.

In a series of recent conversations, Perot left no doubt that he is focusing on a campaign with the same intensity he brings to business. He has checked out all the legal fine points of an independent race; looked into the possibility that a splintered, three-way election could be thrown into the House of Representatives and is mulling over reams of advice--pollster Patrick Caddell, for one, volunteered a strategy memo.

To comply with laws in some states requiring a running mate be listed in the initial filing of a third party, Perot has been sorting through vice presidential choices. He’ll probably name a stand-in for now and a full-fledged candidate later. Jesse Jackson seems to be out, despite media stories; Gen. Colin L. Powell is perfect but unavailable; Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf is popular but unlikely. More probable is someone from the private sector who has a reputation for solving complex problems and a strong family life. “You can learn a lot about a person from looking at the kids and how they relate to their parents,” he says, with the assurance of a man who has few doubts about life.

Along the way, Perot acquired a deep aversion to George Bush and his Washington. He won’t go into detail, but seems to see Bush as a classic No. 2. Bush’s top people share a distaste for Perot, saying he is a windbag and politically naive.

Perot excites his followers because he vows a citizens’ crusade can turn Washington upside-down. In every forum, he invokes the idea that the national government is a business and the people are the owners, but they have given up control to the politicians. Put a tough businessman in charge, he is saying, and we can not only straighten out Washington but whip the Japanese and Europeans. Just as a general like Dwight D. Eisenhower appealed to voters in a time of military threat, a businessman rings bells in a day of economic peril.

Whatever else a Perot candidacy does, he would force others in the race to focus on big issues they would rather duck. Perot could flush both George Bush and Bill Clinton out of hiding on serious ways to deal with the deficit.

More unpredictable is how much a Perot candidacy might draw from the other contenders. Conventional wisdom is probably right about Perot’s initial impact: As a folk hero in much of the Sun Belt, he would drain away mostly GOP voters, threatening Bush’s chances in Texas and maybe California, while causing few stirs in Democratic bastions of the Northeast. But Perot might expand his base, bringing in large chunks of voters dissatisfied with the two mainstream candidates. The fact that he favors gun control and is pro-choice will also help him draw Democrats.

No independent candidate has ever won the White House, and the last major one who tried, John Anderson in 1980, drew only 6% of the vote. But Perot already enjoys 9% support, according to a national poll last week. And Perot has something Anderson lacked: big money. Perot is willing to spend up to $100 million of his own--nearly twice as much of a bankroll as his competitors.

But if Perot jumps into the race, he will face far harder questions than any he has seen so far, and it is not clear how well he will respond. Among the biggest:

Will he be effective as a political leader? Plenty of businessmen have looked longingly across the chasm in recent years, but few have shown they can cross over into political life.

A presidential run will also test the thickness of his skin and his capacity to lead through television. On the stump, Perot can be one of the best speakers in America, but his television appearances have been uneven. He won’t have any time for on-the-job training.

Does he have sound answers? So far, Perot has been better at describing America’s problems and the kind of leadership he offers than in prescribing detailed solutions. He is relying in part on the notion that, if elected, he can set up an electronic town hall, presenting alternative solutions to the electorate in a candid discussion and asking them--as owners--to tell management what to do. Voters seem to like the idea and are willing to accept other general propositions from him--Social Security cuts, more burden sharing, reduction of waste, giving citizens the right to OK congressional pay raises--but the media will push him toward far greater specificity.

Can an outsider overhaul Washington? That’s the toughest question of all because no outsider has ever tried and the problems here seem intractable. Jimmy Carter came as close as anyone to being an outsider--and no one has forgotten what happened.

A Perot race for the White House remains the longest of shots, and he knows it. But in the meantime, he loves raising hell about the Establishment and stirring people to action. If anyone can crack the system with a citizens’ crusade these days, it’s Perot.