A Derby That Runs to Form : Horse racing: The last 12 favorites have been beaten in Kentucky, but don’t expect an upset at Santa Anita today.

The 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby and the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby are different in more ways than distance.

When Billy Taylor ran Seattle Slew in the 1977 Kentucky Derby, one of his guests was actor Albert Finney, the son of an English bookmaker.

“This is the only way to go to the Derby,” Taylor told Finney. “With a 1-2 shot.”

That may have been true then, but since Spectacular Bid won the Kentucky Derby in 1979, a dozen favorites have failed to win at Churchill Downs.

The Santa Anita Derby is the opposite. Form prevails in this Kentucky Derby prep, and today, when the race is run for the 55th time, form is expected to prevail again. When the seven 3-year-olds enter the gate, either A.P. Indy or Bertrando will be favored, and a victory by any of the five others would seriously distort the blueprint for the Kentucky Derby four weeks from today.

In the last seven years, four favorites--Skywalker, Snow Chief, Winning Colors and Mister Frisky--have won the Santa Anita Derby, and the three other winners--Temperate Sil, Sunday Silence and Dinard--have also been short-priced horses.

The average win payoff for the Santa Anita Derby since 1985 has been less than $6. The win price for the Kentucky Derby during the same period has been almost $17.

A.P. Indy, who won the first Santa Anita race of his career in October and is undefeated in three starts since, is 6-5 on the morning line and Bertrando is 8-5. By post time, though, they could be closer in the betting. Bertrando, like A.P. Indy a winner of four of five, is a California-bred son of Skywalker who has won twice at Santa Anita and twice at Del Mar as a 2-year-old.

Trainers Shelley Riley and Wayne Lukas insist that it will be more than a two-horse race. Riley owns and trains Casual Lies, the $7,500 yearling who ran third to A.P. Indy in December’s Hollywood Futurity, then retreated to Northern California for two victories against second-stringers this year.

Since Casual Lies’ victory in the Sausalito Stakes on March 7, Riley has debated whether to run him in the $300,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields next Saturday or today’s $500,000 race. After scouting A.P. Indy and Bertrando in their Santa Anita preps earlier this season, she has taken the tougher assignment.

“I noticed a little crack in A.P. Indy’s armor,” Riley said after the $2.9-million yearling was extended to beat Treekster, a colt who had never run in a stake, by less than a length in the San Rafael Stakes.

“It took him a little bit before he got there in that race.”

Two weeks later, Bertrando, racing for the first time in 4 1/2 months, shook off an early challenge by Hickman Creek and won the San Felipe Stakes by less than a length over Arp, who wasn’t even considered a Triple Crown candidate by his trainer, Mel Stute, until then.

“He didn’t scare me off,” Riley said of Bertrando. “Just like A.P. Indy, he showed me a little chink in his armor. Just enough to think we can win.

“We’re not here to run third. We just want to think that with a good, honest effort, our horse could have a chance of winning.”

There are some horsemen who question Riley’s decision to run today. Richard Mulhall trains Solid Truth, a longshot who has won only once in six starts.

“I know I don’t have a chance of beating the two big horses,” Mulhall said. “My horse might have had a better chance if the track came up muddy.

“But to run Casual Lies is dumb. They could go up North, win the California Derby, and still have the horse ready for Kentucky. Why take on these horses before you have to?”

Should Casual Lies make it to Louisville, Riley says, having an extra week between races will be an advantage.

Lukas, the only Santa Anita Derby trainer today who has won the race before, will saddle Hickman Creek, who couldn’t beat A.P. Indy in the San Rafael, or Bertrando in the San Felipe. Hickman Creek ran fourth and third, beaten by a combined 12 3/4 lengths, in those stakes.

Lukas has started 19 horses in the last 13 years in the Santa Anita Derby, winning with Codex, Muttering, Marfa and Winning Colors, the filly who also gave the trainer his only Kentucky Derby victory.

Some in the Bertrando camp have suggested Lukas had Hickman Creek duel for the lead with Bertrando to soften up Bertrando for later races. Lukas says that Hickman Creek vied for the lead because he was wearing blinkers for the first time.

As for today, Lukas said: “I’m hoping my horse is on the improve. He’ll have to be, because what he’s done so far won’t be enough.”

It’s unusual that some of the best jockeys in the local colony won’t be riding in one of the season’s premier races. Chris McCarron, who won the Santa Anita Derby last year with Dinard, is skipping the stake for only the second time in the last 14 years; two-time race winner Pat Valenzuela is also without a mount, and Laffit Pincay, who has won the race seven times, one fewer than Bill Shoemaker, is on the sidelines for the third consecutive year.

The most unfamiliar jockey in today’s race is Casual Lies’ rider, Alan Patterson, who has won only a few races at Golden Gate this season, not even ranking in the first 13 in the standings.

But Patterson, 42, earned Riley’s loyalty and has been entrusted with his first important horse. He was an apprentice in 1969 when he began a two-year Marine stretch in Vietnam.

“What do you say to people who have stuck with me on this horse?” Patterson said. “Saying thank you is not enough.”

Casual Lies has won four of six races with Patterson.

The jockeys with the favorites, Eddie Delahoussaye astride A.P. Indy and Alex Solis aboard Bertrando, have won the Santa Anita Derby. Delahoussaye won with Mighty Adversary, a 32-1 shot, in 1984, and Solis with Snow Chief in 1986.

Delahoussaye, 40, is one of 17 jockeys to have won the Kentucky Derby more than once, with Gato Del Sol in 1982 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983. Delahoussaye might also have had the best horse in the 1988 running, when racing luck relegated Risen Star to third place. Risen Star rebounded to win the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.

Delahoussaye hasn’t skipped a Santa Anita Derby since 1980. He has been A.P. Indy’s only jockey, and he sees in the horse the ingredients that some of his other best mounts have had.

“Every time I’ve ridden him, I’ve been impressed,” Delahoussaye said. “He’s still not seasoned, but he’s got the breeding, the disposition, everything a good horse should have. I’ve got high hopes for him.”

Gato Del Sol, Delahoussaye’s first Kentucky Derby winner, couldn’t find the magic again, and neither could last year’s Derby winner, Strike The Gold.

“After you’ve won the Kentucky Derby, it doesn’t matter that much,” Delahoussaye said. “You’ve still won the Derby, and in this game, that’s what everybody lives to do.”

Horse Racing Notes

Only five sires are represented in the Santa Anita Derby. A.P. Indy and Hickman Creek are sons of Seattle Slew, and Solid Truth and Proud Memories are by Proud Truth. . . . Casual Lies would have been forced to give weight to his opponents had he run in the California Derby. All of today’s Santa Anita Derby starters will carry 122 pounds. . . . Casual Lies was a late foal and really won’t be 3 until May 22, six days after the Preakness, the second Triple Crown race.

Sunday’s $200,000 Santa Barbara Handicap, for fillies and mares at 1 1/4 miles on grass, has drawn seven entrants. Kostroma, who has had sore hoofs, will be making her 1992 debut. Miss Alleged, the 1991 female turf champion, also is entered and will carry high weight of 124 pounds, three more than Kostroma. Others entered are Polemic, Colour Chart, Appealing Missy, Free At Last and Re Toss. . . . Eddie Delahoussaye, who will ride Free At Last, has won the stake three times in the last four years.