BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : The Races: Few Have No Hope of Winning

Nobody asked me, but who needs to be asked?

With the last-to-first theme of 1991 still in mind, 1992 parody--er, parity--can be measured by the following:

Twenty-one of the 26 teams have chances to win division titles, and the Montreal Expos could join the last-to-first movement.

The only teams with little to base hopes on are the Angels, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros, and even the Angels and Orioles have the potential for surprise.

The Atlanta Braves should repeat in the National League West on the basis of pitching, and the New York Mets should muster enough defense--in court and on the field--to survive in the NL East.

The Chicago White Sox bandwagon will have to depart with one fewer passenger, because the view here is that the Texas Rangers, with their potent offense, will finally get enough pitching to win in the tough American League West. The East should be a dogfight between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, the Red Sox prevailing when Butch Hobson, Phil Plantier and Mo Vaughn regenerate the spirit.

Order of finish. . . .

National League West: Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Francisco, the Dodgers, San Diego and Houston.

National League East: New York, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Montreal, St. Louis and Chicago.

American League West: Texas, Chicago, Minnesota, Oakland, Kansas City, Seattle and the Angels.

American League East: Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Milwaukee, Baltimore, New York and Cleveland.

THE DODGERS

Executive Vice President Fred Claire has left a trail of bold, productive moves, but he blinked when confronted with another opportunity, and it probably will haunt the Dodgers in 1992.

After failing in a fire-sale attempt to trade Kal Daniels at the winter meetings, Claire could have removed what remains a festering problem by not tendering a contract to Daniels on Dec. 20, making him a free agent.

What did it matter if Claire didn’t get anything in return, because he still had the valuable Lenny Harris to show for the deal in which pitcher Tim Leary and infielder Mariano Duncan went to the Reds?

Now, Claire has a situation in which:

--Daniels’ suspect ability to handle first base compounds the infield instability.

--His presence in the clubhouse heightens the possibility of internal combustion, no matter how much whitewash the Dodgers put on it.

--His move to first base probably will send Eric Karros back to Albuquerque, making Claire’s winter comments about the club reaching a point at which it is time to mix in the best of the farm system sound like lip service; and widening a gap between his administration and the farm department that almost became a full-scale power struggle during the organization’s annual November meetings in Arizona.

Granted, it would have taken fortitude to start the 1992 season with three virtual rookies--Jose Offerman, Dave Hansen and Karros--in the infield, but would it have been any bigger risk than what’s there?

Now, Karros is back to No. 3 on the first base depth chart behind Daniels and Todd Benzinger; Hansen is No. 3 on the third base list behind the platoon of Harris and Mike Sharperson (with the lingering possibility of a deal for Tim Wallach at some point in the first half) and Claire has sent mixed signals to the leading prospects in a revived farm system about their chances to advance.

Had Claire not offered a contract to Daniels, it might have looked as if Darryl Strawberry were calling the shots, but is that more important than the stability of the defense and chemistry of the clubhouse? The bottom line is that there are too many questions about the soundness of the defense and pitching to think the Dodgers can win the West.

THE ANGELS

Look at it this way: There are seven key Angels--Von Hayes, Gary Gaetti, Lance Parrish, Hubie Brooks, Junior Felix, Alvin Davis and Don Robinson--who must reverse the negative direction of their careers for the Angels to win.

The Angels need to have the unproven Joe Grahe and the oft-injured Robinson, 34, fill the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, and if if that happens, the best the Angels probably can hope for is to be more competitive than they were during their 37-47 slide after July 4 of last year.

In this year of low expectations, the no-risk decision to look at Bobby Rose at second base and Gary DiSarcina at shortstop should be applauded, but the key word in Anaheim is patience.

With the economics and contract complexities of today’s game, there are no quick fixes. Whitey Herzog and Buck Rodgers probably can turn it around for the Angels, but it may take all three years of their contracts.

Jackie Autry and Richard Brown have to believe it, accept it and allow their baseball people to chart a course that will be followed and supported. The win-for-the-cowboy philosophy of the first 31 years was not exactly distinguished by continuity and success.

THE DRAFT

Enough. Commissioner Fay Vincent and deputy Steve Greenberg are insulting everyone’s intelligence by insisting that the recent change in the amateur draft was designed to keep players in college.

It was designed to turn the system into a slave market and stop escalating signing bonuses by providing the owners with regulated self-control.

Although it is difficult to simplify, the new rule provides the clubs with signing rights to their drafted players until a year after their college classes have graduated.

The rule virtually strips the drafted player of financial leverage and the option of being drafted by another club a year later, unless the player drops out of school for a year.

It also leaves college coaches in a year-to-year quandary, not knowing if their scholarship players are going to sign or if they should be recruiting replacements.

The Major League Players Assn., contending that the draft is subject to collective bargaining, is expected to file a grievance this week, although it would seem to be on shaky jurisdictional ground because it does not represent high school, college or minor league players.

However, if it loses in arbitration, the union may provide financial support for several agents planning a class-action suit aimed at overthrowing the rule change and abolishing the draft through a challenge of baseball’s antitrust exemption.

MANAGERS ON THE BUBBLE

1--Bobby Valentine, Texas. 2--Greg Riddoch, San Diego. 3--Cito Gaston, Toronto. 4-Buck Showalter, New York.

Note: Showalter was a popular choice of the Yankee players, but isn’t the Yankee manager always on the bubble?

Note II: This figures to be the last chance for Valentine and close friend Tom Grieve, the Rangers’ general manager.

Valentine has managed the Rangers for seven seasons and 1,100 games. Only one man in baseball history, Pinky Higgins of the Boston Red Sox, managed a team for more games while never winning a division, league or World Series title. Higgins’ record, established between 1955-62, is 1,119 games, which Valentine will surpass in April.

The powerful Rangers led the majors in scoring last year, but also led in runs allowed. The Texas staff features a 45-year-old ace in Nolan Ryan, a would-be ace in Bobby Witt--who is coming off a rotator-cuff tear and elbow surgery--and a should-be ace in Kevin Brown, who has never fulfilled the potential scouts rave about.

Can Valentine find enough mirrors? We should know soon. The Rangers have only one day off during their first 34 games, a test for the best and deepest of staffs.

THE FROSH

Eric Karros may be ticketed for Albuquerque, but several rookies will have key roles at the varsity level this season. Among them:

American League: Toronto outfielder Derek Bell, Cleveland outfielder Kenny Lofton and third baseman Jim Thome, who will open the season on the disabled list, Detroit set-up man John Doherty, Seattle starting pitcher Dave Fleming and Angel shortstop DiSarcina.

National League: San Francisco shortstop Royce Clayton and starting pitcher Dave Burba, New York catcher Todd Hundley, Chicago third baseman Gary Scott, Philadelphia shortstop Kim Batiste and pitchers Kyle Abbott and Andy Ashby and Cincinnati center fielder Reggie Sanders.

RYNE RETROSPECTIVE

Even now, six weeks after sitting in on the news conference at which the Cubs announced Ryne Sandberg’s $7.1 million extension, it is difficult to control the nausea.

The timidity and stupidity of the Cubs in bowing to Sandberg’s phony deadline is one aspect. The magnitude of the escalation, from the $5.8-million average annual value of Bobby Bonilla’s contract with the Mets, is another.

But it was the gall of Sandberg in saying that his goal was security for his family that remains the most disquieting.

Security for his family?

He must have meant security for his great, great, great, great grandchildren, and their great, great, great, great grandchildren.

This is a man who made $875,000 in 1988, $925,000 in 1989, $1.625 million in 1990, $2.725 million in 1991 and already was guaranteed $2.1 million in 1992. Those figures do not include an annual licensing check of about $70,000.

In other words, Sandberg had enough to buy a mountain estate in a gated community near Phoenix. Security for his family? By his measure, the more than $8 million he had received and would be receiving over five years through this season didn’t add up to that.

The two most used--and misused--words in the players vocabulary: security and respect.

In their skewed sense of values, they gauge respect by the size of their salary. And their definition of security is definitely different from that of the 143 employees laid off in the Placentia School District alone last year and the 108 teachers who have been let go in that district this year.

The average salary for a teacher in the United States last year was about $30,000. Sandberg, based on $7.1 million a year, will receive $43,827 a game. He has his security, but one wonders if he will have any perspective to go with it.