Attack Mars Election Eve in Philippines : Violence: A deadly ambush comes before balloting to elect a new government, from president down to town councilors.

Fifteen policemen were killed and five wounded in an ambush by Communist guerrillas on the eve of Monday’s national elections in which Philippine voters are to elect an entirely new government, from president down to town councilors, in the largest and perhaps freest election in the troubled nation’s history.

The Associated Press reported that Philippine military officials blamed the communist New People’s Army for the ambush of a police patrol today in politically tense Cagayan province, about 295 miles north of the capital, Manila.

Closing a three-month campaign that was part fiesta and part war, the 32 million registered voters will choose a successor to President Corazon Aquino, who is not running, as well as a new vice president, members of Congress, governors and every other elected office in the land.

In all, an astonishing 87,770 candidates are running for 17,282 posts.

Seven candidates are running for president, and despite a frenetic final few days of giant rallies, lavish spending and wild mud-slinging, the race appears up for grabs by any one of four candidates. Polls indicated last week that nearly a third of the voters were undecided, outnumbering those backing any single candidate.

The four top presidential contenders are former Defense Secretary Fidel V. Ramos, who has Aquino’s endorsement; House of Representatives Speaker Ramon Mitra, who heads the largest political party; businessman Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., who was a close crony of the late President Ferdinand E. Marcos, and former Judge Miriam Defensor Santiago, who has led polls by crusading against graft and corruption.

“Anything can happen,” said Tony Gatmaitan, a political strategist for Cojuangco, after a final rally Friday night in Manila’s Luneta Park drew tens of thousands of people to also hear movie stars, basketball players, generals and other candidates for public office. “It’s too crazy to call.”

Despite the hoopla, the stakes are high: whether the fragile democracy restored by Aquino’s “people power” revolt in 1986 finally can become stable enough so the impoverished island nation can begin to catch up to its prosperous Asian neighbors.

If election day is marred by widespread violence or fraud, however, or if voters fail to produce a clear winner, many fear that military intervention or a return to strongman rule is likely.

“All our institutions are so discredited, this may be our last chance to really show that democracy can work,” said Haydee Yorac, a member of the powerful Commission on Elections, the neutral government body that oversees the election.

The election also may indicate how much the Philippines has changed in the nearly quarter-century since the last free election in 1969. Younger voters, the growing reach of television, and the increased influence of cause-oriented non-governmental groups may weaken the traditional reliance on “guns, goons and gold” to win elections through intimidation, vote buying and ballot stuffing. After a decade of martial law under Marcos and six years of drift under Aquino, polls suggest that voters seek a change from traditional politics.

Finally, the election may deliver a new verdict on Marcos’ dictatorial regime. His flamboyant widow, Imelda, is a long-shot presidential candidate, and numerous former aides and allies are running for other offices. J.V. Cruz, a former Marcos spokesman, said they are able to run only because of public disillusionment with Aquino’s tenure.

“If she had done well, all of us would be in the dustbin of history,” he said of Aquino. “But people are tired of her wishy-washy, wimpy ways. They’re tired of blackouts, of water shortages, of favoritism, corruption and mismanagement.”

Partly because of the debilitating power and water shortages, coup rumors have swept Manila in recent days. To quell rumors and stop panic buying of food at markets, the armed forces chief, Gen. Lisandro Abadia, organized a massive show of force Friday at his military headquarters at Camp Aguinaldo and ordered his troops to “remain neutral” on election day.

“We are ready to confront any disturbance, public disorder, acts of terrorism or attempt to destabilize the nation,” Abadia said. “Our job is to help keep democracy alive in our country.”

The entire national police will be put on alert Monday, with more than 10,000 troops deployed to suspected hot spots. Since February, troops have arrested more than 2,000 people for violating a special gun ban and disbanded more than 100 private armies of local warlords in hopes of curbing election violence.

Before today’s ambush, at least 38 other people have been killed since the campaign began in February, including at least three people reported killed when a bomb and a grenade exploded Saturday in two separate incidents on the southern island of Mindanao. But the violence is a sharp improvement from the 387 people reported killed in the presidential, congressional and local elections of 1986-88.

Election day may prove more problematic, however. Under a system devised in 1946, each voter must fill in his paper ballot by hand, scribbling up to 44 names. The ballots then will be tabulated by hand. Final results may not be known for two weeks. Congress will pronounce the winner on May 25. Aquino steps down June 30.

With so many presidential candidates, the winner is unlikely to get more than 30% of the vote, and the constitution does not provide for a runoff. A candidate may challenge the counting at any point, further delaying release of the results.

Christian Monsod, chairman of the Commission on Elections, said he hopes the sheer number of candidates will help curb electoral fraud, since each party will be encouraged to put poll watchers in precinct polling stations.

Just in case, however, he is sending each precinct emergency cardboard voting booths, pens, and indelible ink to mark voters’ fingernails to prevent them from voting twice.

The commission also has advised voters to carry cameras and flashlights to document any fraud or help in a blackout and to keep vigil outside polling places until canvassing is finished. Each precinct will have a maximum of 200 voters, and a new law makes it a crime to keep others from voting by spending more than 20 minutes in the voting booth.

“We’ve taken every safeguard and precaution we can think of,” Monsod said. “We do not say it will be a perfect election. But we have the support of the people. And we are confident of an orderly and peaceful election.”

Among those expressing skepticism was Manila’s politically active Roman Catholic prelate, Cardinal Jaime Sin. “Many have released excessively large sums of money to buy politicians and bribe political kingpins,” he said in a speech. “Many have attempted through armed goons to terrorize the people and prevent them from voting as they must.”

Few issues were debated at length in the campaign. Instead, candidates squabbled publicly, traded charges and allegations, and planted fake stories in newspapers. There was little debate over proposals to ease the plight of nearly half the population that lives below the poverty line, to improve the crumbling infrastructure, to deal with rocketing population.

None of the presidential candidates visited the 100,000 squatters in Manila’s “reclamation zone,” a sprawling warren of ramshackle tin-roofed shacks built on landfill reclaimed from Manila Bay. Their only water comes in five-gallon jerry cans, hauled a mile or more in wooden carts and sold hut to hut for 8 cents a can. The only electricity comes from car batteries, hooked up to radios, fans and the odd TV. Garbage is heaped along the dirt tracks, and wet clothes are hung on barbed wire to dry.

“No water, no electricity, no doctor, no school, no money, no jobs,” said Gloria Alijos, 31, who sat watching her five children at a neighborhood feeding center built in a neighbor’s front room.

“That’s why we must vote,” she added. “We want to improve our life.”