Census Portends Troubled Times Ahead for O.C.

In a prelude to what could be turbulent times ahead, Orange County in the 1980s grew wealthier, increasingly cosmopolitan and more economically polarized, according to U.S. Census data released today.

Census figures indicate the gap between haves and have-nots in the county widened during the decade, the middle class shrank, blue-collar manufacturing jobs began evaporating and the percentage of foreign-born nearly doubled.

Demographers say most of the numbers add up to a simple truth: Despite the economic good times of the 1980s, Orange County took on some of the foibles of urban communities that many residents fled.

“We are becoming more like some of the older metropolitan areas in the country,” said Bill Gayk, the county demographer. “I just think we’re taking on more of those characteristics. We have more of an ethnic mix and the income spread is greater.”

Although the 1980s were undeniably “a good decade” for Orange County, the prosperity has “sort of masked the fact that there was a growing segment of the community that didn’t prosper,” he added.

Mark Baldassare, a UC Irvine professor of urban and regional planning, said the demographic shifts have put Orange County “at a crossroads,” even as urban unrest in Los Angeles sparks national debate over how to boost the economically impoverished.

“The census figures suggest we have growing income inequality and a shrinking middle class in Orange County,” Baldassare said. “I think we have to begin asking ourselves the questions being considered throughout California and particularly in Los Angeles right now. . . . We need to figure out where to go from here so we don’t just become another urban county with too many difficulties to cope with.”

Baldassare compares the demographic shifts that swept Orange County and other swaths of Southern California during the 1980s to the great wave of immigrants that poured into the United States around the turn of the century.

“When I look at the change, it’s apparent we have history in the making here right now,” Baldassare said. “We are really creating a different society.”

Among the highlights of the Orange County data released today:

* Median household income after inflation ballooned a remarkable 21% to $45,922 during the decade. That eclipsed the state’s $35,798 median income, which grew 17%. But at the same time the number of low-income families--those making only four-fifths the median income--swelled to 37%, up from 34% in 1980.

* People living below the poverty level rose to 8.5% from 7.3% in 1980. Unmarried women with children under 5 were the most affected group--nearly 30% of them were below the poverty level, which is defined as a household income of $12,674 for a family of four.

* Nearly one of four residents was foreign born, and 56% arrived in Orange County during the last decade. In addition, a language other than English was spoken in almost one of three homes. Both findings represent a huge change from 1980 and reflect the wave of immigrants that moved to the region, primarily from Latin America and Asia.

* In what can only be seen as good news for companies searching for well-educated workers, 61% of all Orange County adults have attended college, up from 48% in 1980. Nearly one of five people has a college diploma.

* On the job front, the ongoing defense cuts and the high cost of doing business cut into the county’s manufacturing base. Durable and non-durable goods manufacturing accounted for a combined 21.4% of Orange County jobs in 1990, falling more than 4 percentage points from 1980.

* Reflecting a trend that embraced much of California, homeowners in Orange County spent a far greater percentage of their income on housing. Nearly 45% of the homeowners in the county spent a third or more of their income on their mortgage, an increase of 12 percentage points compared to 1980. Renters also paid a larger share of their income.

* In a disturbing finding for a county that has put a premium on building car-pool lanes, the census determined that residents continue to drive alone to work. Nearly 77% said they drive solo, up from 75% in 1980. The number of car-poolers fell to about 13.7% of the commuters. Meanwhile, the typical commute time in Orange County was 25 1/2 minutes, up 1 1/2 minutes from 1980.

“It looks to me like we’re becoming a more urban and cosmopolitan area in every way except our commuting habits, which are about as suburban as they come,” Baldassare said.

He suggested that the demographic shifts presage what could become difficult times for Orange County. In particular, the school system faces the tough task of providing the next generation of workers with the training needed to wrest a slot in Orange County’s sophisticated, white-collar work force.

“Schools have perhaps the greatest challenge they’ve ever faced in this county,” Baldassare said. “At a time when it has few new resources, our school system is going to be hard pressed to provide the education that can act as an avenue for some of these people to reach the middle class.”

Counting the County Information just released from the 1990 census shows Orange County is better educated and earning more money than 10 years ago, yet the poverty rate also has risen., The census found slightly fewer in the county speaking English at home. Median Income Rises The county’s median household income rose 21.5% to $45,922. The state median income rose 17.1%. Incomes for 1980 have been adjusted for inflation. Poverty Level Increases The poverty level rise followed the statewide increase. County is Well-Educated Orange County has higher percentages than the state of both high school-and college-educated residents. English Spoken Less at Home 69% of those 5 years and older speak English at home-down from 82.2% in 1980. Orange County 1980: $37,806 1990: $45,922 1980 Calif.: 11.4% Orange County: 7.3% 1990 High School Degree Calif. 76.2% Orange County: 81.2% College Degree Calif.: 23.4% Orange County: 27.8% California 1980: $30,575 1990: $35,798 1990 Calif.: 12.5% Orange County: 8.5% 1990 English: 69% Spanish: 18.9% Asian or Pacific: 7.8% Other: 4.3% 1990 Speaks English at Home 1980: 82.2% 1990: 69% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

1989 Median Household Income

for Orange County Cities

Median % Change Household Income Since 1979 Villa Park $99,906 20.1% Yorba Linda $67,892 32.9% Laguna Niguel $61,501 22.2% Mission Viejo $61,058 19.9% Newport Beach $60,374 30.9% Irvine $56,307 7.3% Fountain Valley $56,255 13.4% Dana Point $54,516 44.3% La Palma $54,364 5.0% Laguna Beach $53,419 50.6% Brea $51,253 18.6% Cypress $50,981 11.2% Placentia $50,945 13.1% Huntington Beach $50,633 25.8% Orange $46,539 25.6% San Clemente $46,374 44.4% San Juan Capistrano $46,250 17.1% Los Alamitos $45,171 22.5% Fullerton $41,921 15.5% Buena Park $41,435 11.3% Westminster $41,364 7.6% Costa Mesa $40,313 24.6% La Habra $39,967 13.2% Garden Grove $39,882 11.3% Anaheim $39,620 18.0% Tustin $38,433 15.9% Santa Ana $35,162 14.3% Stanton $33,367 14.8% Seal Beach $32,834 27.9%