Despite Troubles, Nolan Is Favored to Win Eighth Term : Politics: Although the assemblyman is the target of a federal probe, insiders say he is the likely victor in a new, heavily Republican district.

Four years ago, Assemblyman Pat Nolan’s political survival appeared to be in doubt.

The Republican lawmaker’s Capitol office had been raided by the FBI as part of an undercover sting operation. Two months later, in the wake of GOP election losses in 1988, disgruntled GOP lawmakers pressured Nolan from his post as the party’s leader in the Assembly.

But since the federal investigation first came to light, Nolan--who currently represents Glendale and portions of Pasadena and Los Angeles--has twice won reelection. Although the corruption probe continues, he remains an influential voice within the Assembly Republican Caucus.

Now, he is regarded by political insiders as the favorite to win an eighth term in a newly drawn, strongly Republican district that includes all of Burbank, most of Glendale and portions of Los Angeles, including Los Feliz, Griffith Park and part of Hollywood.

Nolan has attracted no Republican opposition in the June 2 primary, even though large chunks of the district--especially in Los Angeles--are new to him.

In the November general election, Nolan is expected to face two little-known and under-financed opponents, Democrat Elliott Graham of Glendale and Libertarian Anthony G. Bajada of Los Angeles. Neither has any opposition in their party primaries.

Still, the 41-year-old Nolan is not taking his new district for granted. In the first three months of the year, Nolan raised almost $65,000 in campaign contributions, attended events to let voters size him up, and more recently joined two other GOP lawmakers in an effort to recruit Republican block captains.

Nolan said that he would have been campaigning even more vigorously if--as was widely anticipated--Assemblywoman Barbara Friedman (D-Los Angeles) had entered the contest. Instead, Friedman, whose district was dismembered by reapportionment, filed at the 11th hour to run for the San Fernando Valley seat vacated by Assemblyman Tom Bane (D-Van Nuys), who had decided to retire.

Nolan jokingly said that for the next two days he attended Mass to say a prayer for his good fortune. If rookie lawmaker Friedman had challenged him, Nolan conceded, “it would have been a tough race,” but the veteran lawmaker said that he still “would have won.”

Indeed, even a well-financed Democrat like Friedman probably would have faced an uphill race in the district. Republicans have the edge in voter registration 46% to 41%. Moreover, 93% of the registered voters in Glendale, where Nolan lives and which he has represented for years, are in the new district, along with all of Burbank, where he grew up and which he represented in the Assembly before the 1982 reapportionment.

First elected to the Assembly in 1978, Nolan stressed his support for Proposition 13, California’s property tax-cutting initiative. As leader of conservative Republicans in the Assembly, he came within one vote of being elected GOP leader in 1983. He made it on his second attempt a year later and was considered a potential candidate for statewide office.

Assemblyman Stan Statham (R-Oak Run), who often has clashed with Nolan, said that even though Nolan is no longer the Republican Assembly leader he remains “very influential” in the decision-making of the GOP caucus.

While the federal probe appears to have short-circuited any plans by Nolan to run for statewide office, he is still regarded as a viable congressional or state Senate candidate by colleagues.

Nolan, who has never been charged with a crime, will not discuss the federal political corruption investigation but describes himself as “frustrated” that it has not ended. “It is not fair,” Nolan says.

Libertarian Bajada, 46, said he would make the federal probe a campaign issue. “Politicians should be above suspicion,” Bajada said, though he stressed that he was not alleging Nolan had committed a crime.

But with an extremely limited campaign budget--probably under $1,000--Bajada’s message is unlikely to persuade many voters.

Democrat Graham, in an unusual acknowledgment, gave himself little chance of beating Nolan, saying “this district is so overwhelmingly conservative Republican, it’s nearly impossible for a Democrat to win.”

Because of the rising costs, Graham, 54, said he supports government underwriting of campaign expenses. “Elections today are bought and paid for,” Graham maintained. “ I want to represent those who can’t afford to give.”