THE TIMES POLL : Perot Leading the Pack in O.C. and Statewide

Maverick independent Ross Perot has swept into favor among voters statewide in California and in Orange County, pulling ahead of a faltering President Bush and likely Democratic nominee Bill Clinton in a projected November presidential matchup, new polls show.

A statewide survey of 1,469 voters questioned by telephone May 16 through 19 found that if the general election were held now, 39% would vote for Perot, the Texas billionaire who is expected to announce this month that he will pursue an independent campaign.

Arkansas Gov. Clinton had the support of 26% and Bush received 25%.

In a separate poll of Orange County, California’s Republican heartland, Bush fared much better against Clinton, but he still trailed Perot. Forty-two percent of those surveyed by The Times Orange County Poll said they back Perot, compared to 36% who support Bush and just 16% for Clinton.

The surveys were taken as the presidential campaign at long last reached California, the most important state in the union politically with its November prize of 54 Electoral College votes. This year, that constitutes one-fifth of the number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

But as in most past presidential years, California is all but an afterthought in this primary season. Bush is already the nominee-elect, and Clinton is expected to follow suit on June 2. The candidates have only just begun sporadic campaigning here.

The polls illustrated the dominant political reality of the last several weeks: The likely standard-bearers for the nation’s major political parties have been eclipsed in voters’ imaginations by a blunt-talking Texas businessman who has pledged to spend whatever of his fortune he needs to win the presidency if voters will sign the necessary petitions to get him on state ballots.

The polls also make clear that voters do not have a clear picture of Perot’s priorities, but they still see him as the candidate best equipped to foment change.

The Orange County poll, conducted for The Times by Mark Baldassare & Associates, contacted 600 registered voters in the county between May 17 and May 19.

The survey found that Clinton suffered more than Bush in Orange County from Perot’s independent candidacy. But Perot was also a strong alternative for Republicans who believe that the President is doing a poor job in handling the economy.

“In Orange County, Perot is drawing strong support among Democrats and is also attracting a sizable number of Republicans to his candidacy,” Baldassare said.

Perot led Clinton even among Democratic voters, with the Arkansas governor garnering 34% of his party’s electorate and Perot favored by 45% of the Democrats. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans remained more faithful to their party leader as Bush led Perot 52% to 38% among GOP voters.

The Orange County survey, which had a margin of error of 4% among all voters and higher among the Republican or Democratic results, also found Perot’s support spans the political spectrum from conservatives on the right to liberals on the left.

Fifty-eight percent of the voters who described themselves as liberals or moderates had favorable impressions of Perot, almost identical to the score Perot received from conservatives.

Some of the Orange County respondents said they were deciding between former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. and Perot; others were choosing between conservative Republican challenger Patrick J. Buchanan and Perot.

“I don’t know much about Ross Perot, but I figure if the politicians can’t do a good job of running the country, maybe it’s time to put a businessman in there,” said Sandra Schuerman, 45, a social worker and Democrat from Mission Viejo who said she favors Brown in the June 2 primary.

“My God, we’ve got people starving here,” she said. “I think a businessman will have a better idea about economics right now . . . and (Perot) seems to be fair to all people.”

Mary Lujan, a 29-year-old Republican from Huntington Beach, said her first choice for President would be Buchanan. But even though she doesn’t know a lot about Perot, Lujan chooses the independent in a three-way race against Clinton and Bush.

“I’m ready for a change,” said Lujan, a mother of four who is studying to be an air traffic controller. Bush “is too busy helping other countries that are in need when we need help just as well.”

There was more bad news in Orange County for both Bush and Clinton.

Nearly half of the county’s Democrats--47%--said they had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, virtually the same percentage that reported a favorable impression of their party’s front-runner.

Last December, Clinton also made national headlines when he drew support among some of Orange County’s most prominent Republicans, who threatened to defect from the GOP over the sagging economy. But now, 77% of the county’s Republicans said they have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.

Among all Orange County voters, Clinton was regarded favorably by just 28%, and exactly two-thirds had an unfavorable opinion.

Wayne Munchel, 34, of Anaheim is one of the Democrats unhappy with Clinton and now considering Perot.

“I wish I could say all the negative media (about Clinton) didn’t affect me, but it did,” he said. “It seems to me he just plays the political game; he doesn’t show leadership.”

For Bush, the Times Orange County Poll found more than half of the voters in Orange County have an unfavorable opinion of the President--his worst rating since entering the White House. Only 46% said they had a favorable opinion.

Much of the dissatisfaction appeared to stem from voters’ concern about the economy.

More than half of Orange County voters said the President was doing a poor job in handling the economy and just 12% said he was doing a good or excellent job. In October, 1990, the start of the recession, 35% rated Bush’s handling of the economy as good or excellent and just 18% said his performance was poor.

Perot also appears to be the biggest beneficiary of those unhappy with the President’s handling of the economy. More than two-thirds of those who rated Bush’s performance as poor said they would support Perot in November.

In a one-on-one race with Clinton, Bush still had a comfortable lead over the Democrat among Orange County voters, 56% to 33%. And for both of the major party candidates, the bad news in the survey did not appear to threaten their chances of carrying Orange County in the June 2 primary.

Clinton led Brown in the Democratic primary 36% to 28%. And Bush held onto a strong lead over rival Buchanan, 65% to 16%.

Former Irvine mayor Larry Agran, who has captured about 1% in most Democratic primaries, was favored by 3% of the Orange County voters.

In the statewide survey conducted by Los Angeles Times Poll director John Brennan, Perot’s support surged seven points from the last Times survey in late April. That poll showed the two Texans, Perot and Bush, running neck and neck with 32% and 33% respectively, and Clinton at 26%, where he still resides.

Brennan said Perot’s movement apparently came at the expense of the President.

“There has been an erosion in Bush’s position,” he said. “Clinton is stable.”

Another indication of Bush’s difficulties came when respondents were asked how they would vote in a general election contest between only two candidate, the President and Clinton. Voters this week made it a statistical dead heat, 42% for Clinton and 40% for Bush. Only last month, Bush led 49% to 38%.

That was not the last of the bad news for the President: his job approval rating slumped to 35% from 50% in December. Overall, California voters expressed widespread dismay not only with Bush but also at the state’s condition, with four in five saying that California is on the wrong track.

Clinton now leads former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., 48% to 38%, among likely voters in the upcoming Democratic presidential primary. Clinton leads Brown by a similar 47% to 38% margin among all registered Democrats.

Clinton reversed the results of the last statewide Times Poll, which had Brown ahead 51% to 37% among registered Democrats. While there was a demonstrable weakness on Brown’s part--the percentage of California voters with a good impression of him has dropped--Times Poll director Brennan cautioned that the race remains volatile.

If former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas is included in the Democratic race, Clinton leads with 38%, compared to 32% for Brown and 20% for Tsongas.

Fully a third of both Clinton’s and Brown’s supporters said they might switch their allegiance before the June 2 election, the poll showed.

Bush’s general downturn does not seem to have hurt his chances in the Republican presidential primary. Even as Bush crumbles in the hypothetical November contests, he leads challenger Buchanan 76% to 14% among likely primary voters.

The President last month secured a lock on the GOP nomination, but Buchanan has stayed in the race to press his conservative viewpoint. Despite the state’s largely negative views of Bush, however, Buchanan is clearly not seen as a political savior. Only one in four registered voters said they had a favorable impression of the former television commentator.

The Los Angeles Times Poll questioned 638 registered Democrats and 564 registered Republicans, including 415 likely Democratic voters and 380 likely Republican voters. For statistics drawn from all voters, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Percentages citing either registered Republicans or Democrats carry a margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points, and 6 points for likely voters.

Perot’s popularity knew no geographical boundaries--he was leading in all five general areas of the state--Los Angeles and the rest of Southern California, San Francisco and the rest of Northern California, and the vast Central Valley.

He was marginally stronger in Southern California, an indication of potential woe for President Bush because Orange and San Diego counties have long been the bulwarks of support for Republicans.

In the current statewide poll, Perot seems to be drawing strength almost equally from those who would vote for either Bush or Clinton in a two-way race. To test voter reaction on that score, the Times Poll first asked voters how they would cast ballots in a hypothetical Bush-Clinton race.

Then, they were asked how they would vote if all three candidates were running in November.

Almost a third--31%-- of the voters who first said they would support Clinton switched to Perot when given that option. Significantly, 33% of the Bush voters also switched to Perot.

Of the Perot voters, 35% describe themselves as Democrats, while 54% were registered independents and 41% were Republicans.

Perot was drawing support in fairly equal percentages from people across the political spectrum--an indication that voters do not know, or do not care, about whether Perot’s personal ideology reflects their own.

Liberals were slightly less supportive--36% said they supported Perot, while 41% supported Clinton.

Among self-described conservatives, Perot ran evenly with Bush, 40% to 41%. And 42% of moderates voted for Perot, compared to 26% who sided with Clinton and 20% who favored Bush.

Additionally, more than a quarter of the Perot voters--asked an open-ended question of “What is the main reason why you would vote for Ross Perot?”--said that Perot represented change. And many of the other answers to that question reflected the same desire for a different kind of candidate.

Nineteen percent, for example, said they liked Perot because “he is an outsider, not part of the Washington Establishment.” Another 12% said they did not like the other candidates. And 16% said it was because Perot is an independent and not a Democrat or Republican.

Overall, asked who among the candidates was best able to accomplish change, 32% said Perot, easily outdistancing Bush at 21% and Clinton at 17%.

Times staff writer Tammerlin Drummond contributed to this report.

Perot Jumps Into the Lead

Orange County voters as well as registered voters statewide now prefer undeclared presidential candidate Ross Perot over President Bush and likely Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton. In Orange County, Perot hurts Clinton more among Demcrats than does Bush among Republicans. Orange County (Registered voters) Ross Perot: 42% George Bush: 36% Bill Clinton: 16% Don’t know: 5% Others: 1%

In Orange County

Republicans Democrats Ross Perot 38% 45% George Bush 52% 17% Bill Clinton 4% 34% Others 1% 1% Don’t know 5% 3%

Bush Popularity in Decline

President Bush’s popularity in Orange County has declined since March.

Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know Ross Perot 57% 25% 18% George Bush 46% 51% 3% Bill Clinton 28% 66% 6%

March Favorable: 49% Unfavorable: 38% Don’t know: 13% May Favorable: 46% Unfavorable: 51% Don’t know: 3% Source: Times Orange County Poll, The Times Poll

California (Registered voters) Ross Perot: 39% Bill Clinton: 26% George Bush: 25% Don’t know: 9% Others: 1%

What is your main reason for backing Perot? (The top answers. Two reasons accepted.) Represents change: 27% Can help economy: 22% He’s an outsider: 19% Not tied to a party: 16% Don’t like the other candidates: 12% He’s concerned about average citizen: 10% Not tied to special interests: 7%

HOW THIS POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted May 17 to 19 on weekday nights and weekend days. A computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers was used. The margin of error for the total sample was plus-or-minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. For subgroups, such as Democrats, Republicans and likely voters, the margin of error is larger.