TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : L.A.-Style Riots Likely in O.C., Majority Believe

Reflecting concerns about the county’s rapidly changing ethnic makeup, about half of Orange County residents believe that the sort of violence that swept Los Angeles following verdicts in the Rodney G. King beating case will likely happen here in the next few years, The Times Orange County Poll has found.

Residents in the more urbanized central area of the county are slightly more concerned than those in the south and north that civil unrest will strike the county.

“A lot of people see that this is a snapshot of our potential futures,” said Rusty Kennedy, executive director of the Orange County Human Relations Commission. “It’s not a foregone conclusion, but it is certainly a possibility if we don’t take steps now to address issues of racial isolation.”

The Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, sampled 600 registered voters between Saturday and Tuesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

The poll found that 53% of county residents believe a similar outbreak of violence is “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to occur here “in the next few years.” Baldassare said he believes that the findings reflect “a sense of worry among residents about the tensions and changes that have occurred in Orange County over the last few years.”

“I think there is a growing recognition and concern that we are living in a county that has changed in terms of its ethnic and racial character and in terms of growing social inequalities,” he said. “Although we’re not Los Angeles, we’re a different county from what we were a decade ago.”

Twenty years ago, 90% of county residents were Anglo; by 1990 only 75% of the county’s 2.2 million residents were Anglo. Current projections are that one in three residents will be Latino or Asian by the year 2000, according to data compiled by the county. Blacks make up 2% of the population today, and that is not expected to change by 2000.

The poll also found that seven in 10 Orange County residents disagree with the not-guilty verdicts in the trial of four Los Angeles police officers accused in the King beating. In Los Angeles County, the figure is eight in 10, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll conducted there May 3 and 4.

“The verdict just totally goes against everything this country stands for,” said Times Orange County Poll respondent Clayton Gewin, a 25-year-old Fullerton resident who recently became unemployed. “I don’t know where that jury came from.”

Jeanette Freas, 22, a day-care worker from Westminster, also finds the verdicts troubling.

“Just from the video, it didn’t seem like that kind of brutality and beating should go by without something happening to the people who did it,” she said.

Yet despite their belief that the verdicts are unjust, Freas and other Orange County residents overwhelmingly condemn the looting and massive destruction that ensued.

“I think they really just got carried away,” Freas said. “I don’t even see those people as really being protesters. I thought it was just a lot of criminal activity.”

Eighty-two percent called the violence that erupted after the verdicts “totally unjustified”--a slightly higher negative response than in the Los Angeles poll, in which 75% said there was absolutely no justification for the violence.

“The rulings struck everyone as being grossly unjust, specifically because it looks like the race of the victims and the race of the officers had everything to do with the ruling,” said Rabbi Bradley Artson of Temple Eilat in Mission Viejo, who was asked to comment on the findings. “But to the extent that you can understand why people were frustrated and took to the streets, it still doesn’t justify what they did.”

However, 17% of county residents believe that the rioting that followed the verdicts was at least partly justified, contrasted with 24% in Los Angeles.

“I don’t think beating people up and killing them is justified, but I can understand where their frustration comes from after having been ignored for too many years,” said Sandra Schuerman, 45, a bookkeeper from Mission Viejo. “I think that verdict stunk, and I think we need to do more for people who are poor and who don’t even have the basics to live.”

Reflecting Orange County’s reputation for conservative political views, 22% of county residents agree with the verdicts, significantly more than the 13% of Los Angeles poll respondents who hold that belief.

Echoing the views of many residents, 25-year-old Christine Gonzalez said she is surprised and relieved that Orange County emerged from the recent violence all but unscathed.

“I feel it’s quite possible that if they had not gotten it under control as quickly as they did, it would have come down here,” said Gonzalez, an office manager from Westminster. “It was moving this way.”

Orange County Supervisor Harriett M. Wieder said the Los Angeles riots should serve as a wake-up call to the community.

“I think we might be about five years behind Los Angeles if we do nothing,” Wieder said. “I think it could happen here, but I think we’ve got the luxury of time to prevent it.”

However, Supervisor Roger R. Stanton rejected the notion that riots of the sort Los Angeles experienced could happen here.

“I think the danger of gangs is a real danger, but . . . a spontaneous eruption of violence on the part of Orange County is in the realm of speculation,” Stanton said. “It just accentuates the need for ever-increasing prosecution and monitoring of gang crime.”

HOW THIS POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted May 17 to 19 on weekday nights and weekend days. A computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers was used. The margin of error for the total sample was plus-or-minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. For subgroups, such as Democrats, Republicans and likely voters, the margin of error is larger.

King Verdict Aftermath / Orange County Not Immune

Although Orange County residents are less likely to disagree with the verdict in the Rodney G. King case than Los Angeles residents, they overwhelmingly think that the jury’s decision was wrong, according to a Times Orange County Poll. “Do you agree or disagree with the jury’s verdict of not guilty in the Rodney King beating trial?” Orange County Agree: 22% Disagree: 69% Don’t know: 9%

Los Angeles Agree: 13% Disagree: 81% Don’t know: 6% “Do you think the violence that occurred on the streets of Los Angeles after the King beating trial verdict is totally or partly justified, or totally unjustified?” Orange County Totally unjustified: 82% Partly justified: 14% Totally justified: 3% Don’t know: 1%

Los Angeles Totally unjustified: 75% Partly justified: 21% Totally justified: 3% Don’t know: 1% “In your opinion, what are the chances that in the next few years there will be an outbreak of violence in Orange County similar to the one that occurred in Los Angeles after the King beating trial verdict?”

Countywide North Central South Very likely 18% 18% 20% 17% Somewhat likely 35 32 39 36 Not too likely 32 33 27 37 Not at all likely 12 15 9 9 Don’t know 3 2 5 1

Source: The Times Orange County Poll, The Times Poll

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