COMMENTARY ON POLITICS : The Grass Roots of Republican Party Need a Little Fertilizer : GOP needs energizing but its campaigns are in danger if party’s voters cross over in November.

Once again, Orange County Republicans have determined a statewide candidate’s fate. Bruce Herschensohn beat Tom Campbell in their race for the U.S. Senate by a margin of about 75,000 votes in Orange County. Since early results show he only won by about 57,000 votes statewide, without Herschensohn’s cushion in Orange County, he would have lost.

Unknown to voters on Election Day, on May 29 Herschensohn reached into his own pocket and plunked down $300,000 to finance the final leg of his campaign to overcome Campbell.

After losing the primary six years ago, Herschensohn wasn’t going to leave any stone unturned, even if he had to buy the shovel himself.

Like Ross Perot, willingness and ability to put his own money where his mouth is separates Herschensohn from other candidates. But Perot and Herschensohn share more in common than some loose change and a gambler’s instinct.

Herschensohn seems more interested in principle than party. He made it clear before the election that he would not support Tom Campbell, should Campbell win the nomination. According to Herschensohn, glossing over fundamental differences on issues of right and wrong in the name of party unity is, well . . . wrong.

Despite the difficulty Herschensohn will face in the general election because of his right-of-center political views, his honesty and commitment to principle rather than expediency could win him the admiration of a majority of voters. Running against a congressional incumbent who bounced more than 100 checks won’t hurt his chances at all.

One thing is sure: George Bush and John Seymour both need Herschensohn’s help to energize voters who seem ready to bolt the party at the least provocation.

In Orange County, Democrats turned out to vote at a marginally higher rate than Republicans, which isn’t saying much. Total voter turnout was a mere 44%, the worst presidential primary turnout since at least 1956--maybe ever.

And nearly half the Republicans who showed up weren’t voting for Bush.

In 1988, Bush received the votes of 82% of Orange County Republicans who walked into a voting booth in the primary election. The rest voted for another presidential candidate or voted for no one.

This year, there is a very different picture. A mere 58% of voting Republicans cast a vote for the President; 22% voted for Patrick J. Buchanan and at least 13% wrote in someone else, usually Perot. An additional 6% either didn’t vote for anyone or wrote in a candidate but failed to punch their ballot card properly.

In all, 116,000 of the Orange County Republicans who took the time to vote wrote Perot’s name on the ballot, voted for Buchanan or merely took a bye. With 40,000 more Republicans registered than in 1988, Bush got 80,000 fewer votes.

Since the President’s ability to win California--and possibly America--depends on his victory margin in Orange County, you can bet the palace guard are consuming their share of Rolaids this weekend. Bush’s 1988 victory margin in Orange County was 317,000, 90% of his 352,000 total statewide margin. He simply cannot afford to lose the support of local Republicans.

Unlike Ronald Reagan, who launched his national reelection effort in Fountain Valley in 1984, Bush has been notable in his absence here, apparently assuming that Reagan Country can be taken for granted as Bush Country. Perot’s new campaign director, Ed Rollins, won’t make the same mistake. As Reagan’s former White House political director and a veteran California GOP strategist, Rollins will be honing in on disaffected Republicans as well as crossover Democrats who forged the original Reagan Revolution.

If Tuesday’s election was all bad news for Bush, it included both good and bad news for many Republican women in Orange County.

The good news is that Republican women appear to be at least competitive--arguably, superior--candidates for their party’s nomination.

The bad news for most Republican women is that only anti-choice candidates seem capable of winning their party’s nod in primary elections.

With the sole exception of U.S. Sen. John Seymour, local GOP voters gave the win only to candidates pledged to outlaw abortion rights. While Seymour is pro-choice, the list of anti-abortion Republican nominees is notable for its solidarity: George Bush, Bruce Herschensohn, Robert K. Dornan, Christopher Cox, Dana Rohrabacher, John R. Lewis, Curt Pringle, Gil Ferguson, Mickey Conroy and Ross Johnson are repeat victors in the precincts of Orange County.

Although the Republican primary vote was solidly anti-choice, it certainly wasn’t sexist. Doris Allen, Jo Ellen Allen and Patricia C. Bates all carried the Orange County GOP vote in their respective elections. While Bates won the Orange County portion of the 73rd Assembly District, she lost the nomination to San Diego County resident Bill Morrow, also an abortion-rights foe.

All told, Republican women won three of the five Assembly races they entered. These victorious candidates join anti-abortion incumbent Marian Bergeson--and Doris Allen reaffirms her role--as bona fide party leaders in their respective communities.

But these were not the only Republican women seeking approval from their neighbors on Tuesday. Like Maureen Reagan in a nearby Los Angeles congressional district, Judith M. Ryan, Mary Hornbuckle and Rhonda J. McCune shared a common fate as pro-choice Republican women spurned by their party. Despite surveys showing a majority of Republican women to be pro-choice, the results of the election seem indisputable: There is little room for pro-choice women in the Republican Party in Orange County.

So where will they go this fall?

In the case of Dornan, it’s possible that some of Ryan’s primary vote will go to her. More than one angry Republican woman is talking about stealing a game plan from Marian Bergeson’s 1976 playbook. That year, Bergeson lost a narrow election to fellow Republican Jim Slemons. Smarting from the ignominy of defeat, a bowed but not broken Bergeson defied GOP peacemakers and launched a write-in campaign in the general election.

Although Bergeson lost, her effort drained critical GOP votes away from Slemons and threw the district to Democrat Ron Cordova for one term. Two years later, a triumphant Bergeson won a contested primary, and she has been in the Legislature ever since.

Considering the lousy Republican turnout this year, the narrow margin of Republican registration in Dornan’s district, and the determination of many energetic but unhappy Republican women, Dornan may want to make use of the religious shrine he built with that well-publicized House bank check. Prayer may be his only chance to hold his own in the general election.

At the state level, Seymour hopes GOP women will rally to him as they did to his benefactor, Pete Wilson, in 1982, 1988 and 1990. Activist Republican women--contributors, precinct workers and voters--gave Wilson critical aid in each of those elections.

But will they vote for Bush when they have the option of a pro-choice moderate like Perot? And will they vote for Herschensohn, who opposes full rights for women, when they can vote for Barbara Boxer instead?

The paradox is unmistakable: The GOP needs candidates like Herschensohn to energize the grass roots for the rest of the ticket. But it is questionable if these candidates can win their own general election campaigns if Republican women give up and cross the line to vote for a pro-choice Democrat or an independent.