COMMENTARY / HORSE RACING : Winning a Triple Crown Triply Tough

They ran the Epsom Derby Wednesday outside London. Remember when we were supposed to care?

The Epsom, if you recall, was to be the second half of an unprecedented Derby Double for Arazi, the French equine Elvis. He was going to win the Kentucky Derby and forgo the Triple Crown, instead flying back across the Atlantic for the Epsom, the world’s oldest derby.

It was to be the biggest sporting snub in the area since the Colts drafted John Elway, although not as personal, seeing as Arazi would not be making flammable comments in the press. Anyway, it all became moot when Arazi went le flop in Louisville and home to France.

And my life got easier. A win by Arazi was going to put me in a tough spot.

As a tax-paying, Leave-it-to-Beaver-rerun-watching American, in Preaknessville no less, I was supposed to be outraged. How could Arazi’s handlers deprive us of a chance to see history right here in Bawlmer? But here was the problem: I didn’t blame them.

It was not just that the Derby Double was a fresh idea. It was that the Triple Crown has become such a stretch for any horse. Even the equine Elvis.

The Derby Double made much more sense as a way to build a racing legend. One reason was that it gave Arazi and his sore knees a month between races instead of two weeks. But the big reason was that, simply, it was not the Triple Crown.

If you want to chart a history-making course for a horse, you’re better off avoiding the Triple Crown altogether. It almost guarantees a reputation-quashing loss.

People don’t realize it because there were three Trips in the ‘70s, but those are the only three in the past 44 years.

The thing has become so difficult to win that the annual hype surrounding it is borderline fraudulent.

Yes, there have been 24 near-misses in those 44 years, with a horse winning two of the three races. But you will notice what always happens in the third.

The plain fact is that the Trip has become more than sports’ toughest win. It is almost too tough to take seriously.

Nothing has contributed to this more than an exponential increase in horses. When Whirlaway won the Trip in 1941, there were 6,000 thoroughbreds born in the United States that year. The figure was up to 25,000 when Secretariat won in 1973. In 1991, some 42,000 were born.

Whirlaway had one-seventh as many horses to beat as Derby winner Lil E. Tee did this year. Were Whirlaway’s chances significantly better? Does Mr. Ed talk?

It is, thus, no coincidence that there were five Trips during 1935-48, but none for the next 25 years and only three in 44 now, as the baby boom has rolled.

Another reason is that the Kentucky Derby has become such a circus, making it harder and harder for the best horse to win. The average field in 1935-48 was 13. It is up to 17 in the past decade, and there are several obvious examples of Trip-caliber horses that got caught in Derby traffic. Risen Star in 1988. Hansel in 1991. Maybe Pine Bluff this year.

More and more, the best horse does not win the Derby, killing any shot at a Trip. And even when the best does win, the odds are still strongly against him. A big reason is breeding, which has changed in the past quarter-century, the emphasis now on speed, not distance. Most horses just aren’t up to running the classic distances three times in six weeks.

Maybe once, maybe twice, but not three times. Eleven of the 24 near-misses since 1948 were horses that won the Derby and Preakness, then hit the wall in the stretch run of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, unable to do it a third time.

Then there is Lasix. A horse can use the anti-bleeding drug in the Derby and Preakness, but not the Belmont. The effect of the drug is debatable.

Certainly, it is wrong to flat-out prophesy that the Trip is dead. There is always a chance a super horse will come along. Secretariat, Affirmed and Seattle Slew had the stuff to overcome all these obstacles in the ‘70s. It can happen.

But the chances are almost off the board at this point, and dwindling. Every spring, it seems, we hear about a super horse gearing up for a run at the Triple Crown. Arazi was the best 3-year-old this year. If you saw him pass 15 horses in a half-mile at the Derby, you know. But he wasn’t bred for distance, and he stopped at the top of the stretch in Louisville.

But even if he had won the Derby and gone on to make a run at the Trip, he would have gotten smoked somewhere along the line. That’s one bet you always know you can cash.