No Longer Dangerous, but Still Potent

Is Michael Jackson really the King of Pop?

When his “Dangerous” album lasted only two weeks at No. 1 last winter, Epic Records said it saw no reason to worry.

The label stressed that the record business isn’t like the film business, where early box office returns usually define a movie’s commercial impact. Success in the record business is determined over the long haul.

Let Nirvana’s “Nevermind” take No. 1 . . . let Garth Brooks’ “Ropin’ the Wind” take No. 1 . . . Michael will win the long run. Check back in six months and you’ll see.

Well, it’s been six months and guess what: Garth Brooks and Nirvana are still ahead of Jackson. The three albums were No. 7, 23 and 28, respectively, last week.

The sales totals of the three albums are even more dramatic, according to statistics compiled by SoundScan, the New York research firm that compiles computerized sales data for Billboard

Brooks’ album has sold 6.4 million copies since it debuted on the charts last September. It has 2.4 million this year alone.

Nirvana’s major-label debut has sold 3.5 million since it hit the stores last September. Its 1992 total: 2 million.

Jackson’s “Dangerous” has sold 3.45 million since it was released in November, including 1.7 million in 1992.

The evidence suggests that Jackson is still a potent force among the main group of sellers--but not the clear, dominant force.

“Michael is no longer No. 1 at retail,” said Stan Goman, senior vice president of the 77-store, Sacramento-based Tower Records chain. “But he sure sells a lot more records than Bruce (Springsteen) or any other pop figures of that stature from the past. He may not be out there leading the pack like he did in his ‘Thriller’ days, but he’s still one of the industry’s biggest pop stars.”

Lenny Beer, editor-in-chief of the trade magazine Hits, points out that two of Jackson’s three singles from the album reached No. 1 on the magazine’s sales charts. Only “Black or White” peaked at No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100 singles chart.

“Pop culture is very fragile,” Beer said. “One day Michael is No. 1. The next day it’s Kris Kross or Billy Ray Cyrus. In order to get that spotlight back on him, Michael has to get out there on tour and start performing live again. That’s what I think this album needs to take it to the next level.”

But David Glew, president of Epic Records, feels it is still far too early to close the books on “Dangerous.”

“I feel very positive about where we are at this point in time,” Glew said. “I don’t know how anybody could criticize an artist who sells almost 13 million records worldwide in six months.”

Officials at Epic dispute the SoundScan figures, maintaining that “Dangerous” has sold 5 million copies in the United States plus an additional 8 million overseas since its release. There is no computerized method to verify international sales.

Epic’s Glew agrees that Jackson’s upcoming tour should spark business.

“We expect to have a sales explosion overseas when Michael starts his tour at the end of June,” Glew said. “Plus we have at least four other singles we plan to release from this album. By that time, Michael will be performing in the U.S. The point I’m trying to make is that this is a long-term sales project. We’re just getting started here. We’ll still be talking a year from now about how ‘Dangerous’ is doing.”

However, some industry observers wonder whether Epic is not just putting up a brave front.

Several sources estimate that the U.S. arm of Sony Music has spent more than $12 million on videos, advertising, promotion and remix engineering costs for “Dangerous.” Add that to the estimated $18-million advance on the record reportedly paid last year to Jackson, they say, and that puts Sony nearly $10 million in the red on the project.

“That’s ridiculous,” said Glew, responding to the rumors. “We never spent that much money and we’re very pleased with how well the record is selling. The problem is that when you’re a superstar everybody wants to second-guess you. What do they want? How many records do these people think Michael should have sold?”