NEWS ANALYSIS : Bush Regains a Fighting Chance in O.C. : Strategy: President must court its Perot supporters to win state, analysts say.

With Ross Perot suddenly out of the political equation, strategists say it will be essential for President Bush to court Perot’s Orange County supporters if he hopes to carry California.

Perot, who was six percentage points ahead of Bush in a recent Times Orange County poll, was widely regarded as a spoiler for Bush in conservative Orange County, which historically has provided the margin of victory for the President and other Republicans in statewide elections.

Many party leaders felt the Texas billionaire so clouded the electoral picture that it was doubtful Bush could get the 200,000- to 300,000-vote margin in Orange County that he needs to carry California in November. Perot was polling equally well in other vote-rich Sun Belt states such as Texas and Florida, which also are key to winning the White House.

A sidelined Perot now gives Bush a fighting chance in Orange County. So expect lots of presidential visits to the land once known as “Reagan Country,” say political observers. But courting Perot supporters won’t be easy, especially with Democrats mobilizing to appeal to the disaffected.

“There are a large number of Republicans here who are unhappy with the current Administration,” acknowledged Tom Malcolm, finance chairman for the Orange County Republican Party. “They were like a herd of cattle looking for a cowboy, and they were looking to Perot as their savior.

“The Perot campaign was the biggest I have seen in a long time in Orange County,” Malcolm said. “I haven’t seen, in any previous presidential elections, Republicans do half as good a job as the Perot people this year.” Consequently, “we have had a rough time raising money for the President.”

Whether those voters, Republican or Democrat, who have helped put Ronald Reagan and George Bush in the White House and George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson in the governor’s office, can be wooed back will probably depend on how successful Bush is at blaming the Democrat-controlled Congress for the dismal state of the economy and the reason he broke his “No New Taxes” pledge.

“The situation is still very fluid, but it means to me that Bush has an opportunity that he didn’t have a month ago--appealing to a very large bloc of Republicans who had moved over to Perot,” said UC Irvine Prof. Mark Baldassare, whose poll for the Times Orange County Edition in May showed Perot leading with 42% of the vote to Bush’s 36%. Clinton trailed with 16% of the vote.

“What we’ll be looking to see now is whether Bush can mend fences with those Republicans who had deserted him for Perot’s campaign,” Baldassare said.

“It’s an opportunity, but that’s all it is, an opportunity,” observed Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach). “This means we’re going to see an awful lot of the President in Orange County before November . . . because he knows California now is winnable and he must have it in order to win the election.”

Unless Bush moves boldly to the right, however, the President in Ferguson’s view will not be able to draw the “Perotistas,” particularly those who are disaffected conservatives. “I believe they’re going to say, ‘A plague on all your houses,’ and just withdraw.”

That scenario seems increasingly likely, said political consultant Harvey Englander, whose clients are mostly Republicans.

“At least in Orange County, it’s conceivable that neither one gets the Perot voters. Based on our polling, we now think a lot of these people may not vote,” Englander said. “They supported Perot because they were seeking alternatives. They are now left with the candidates of the existing two parties. . . . I think California is completely up for grabs.”

Still, Democratic Party leaders, previously content to watch Perot sap the Republicans’ 55% edge in the county’s voter registration, now hope to move into the void and portray the Bill Clinton-Al Gore ticket as the best chance Perot supporters have to effect change at the highest levels of government.

“I think the challenge for Bill Clinton is to demonstrate that he is the candidate for change,” said John Hanna, a Clinton delegate at the Democratic National Convention and a former Orange County Democratic Party chairman.

“I’m going to do everything I can to bring them into the Democratic camp,” Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Howard Adler vowed Thursday from the floor of the convention in New York’s Madison Square Garden. “Every time Clinton or Gore comes to town, I’m going to call the Perot volunteers and invite them.

“This may be a historic opportunity for Democrats in Orange County, and I’m going to do everything I can to make it happen,” said Adler, a developer and longtime party activist from Laguna Hills.

Maureen Ridgway, executive director of the county Democratic Party, said she was contacted by a Perot supporter Thursday and invited to a previously scheduled Perot rally Saturday in Westminster’s Civic Center. Not only will they be there, but Democratic workers will be stationed at the Orange County Fair and the Huntington Beach Pier this weekend carrying placards proclaiming the new Clinton-Gore ticket “the real party of change in America.”

Republicans, too, lost no time making their pitch Thursday.

Orange County GOP Vice Chairwoman Dorothy Hughes appeared at the Perot headquarters right after the Texas billionaire announced his withdrawal from the campaign to “extend a hand of welcome and let them know the party has an open door,” said Thomas Fuentes, the longtime chairman of the Orange County Republican Party.

Fuentes promised to “roll out the red carpet” to attract Perot supporters and to invite them to what he predicted would be numerous visits by Bush, his wife, Barbara, Vice President Dan Quayle and even former President Ronald Reagan.

“You will see the same kind of consistent strong presence by the White House here in Orange County,” Fuentes said. “The President knows this is Bush country, and both he and Barbara will come back to rally the people of Orange County who have so consistently been supportive of him.”

In the end, he and others, including Reps. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) and Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach), say conservatives, however disaffected, will be turned off by liberal Democrats and return to the Republican fold.

“There are a lot of people in Orange County who are upset with President Bush, especially for backing down on the ‘no new taxes’ pledge,” Rohrabacher said. “They were looking for an alternative, but there is no way they are going to vote for a big-taxing Democrat. There are going to be a lot of people in Orange County who are going to be grudgingly voting for President Bush.”

Maybe not, if developer and Republican political activist Kathryn G. Thompson is any indication.

Thompson, who broke ranks with the local party machinery to invite Clinton to speak twice and more recently met with Perot in Dallas, said she had been leaning toward the Texas billionaire as an “agent for change.”

She was deeply disappointed that he dropped out of the race, but said she hoped that Perot’s lightning-rod candidacy had sent a message: “I hope the voice of Perot supporters will be heard and that President Bush will take some really bold steps. This is a call for action. We need bold steps to bring America back to greatness.”

Just slamming the Democrats as tax-and-spenders won’t work, Thompson said, noting that Perot had been able to attract constituents from widely divergent groups--from anti-abortion to abortion rights advocates, from traditional value-oriented conservatives to the blue-collar workers who have lost or fear losing their jobs.

“The main stance of his platform is that we’re going to have to get this country turned around and to do that, we have to have a long-term economic program,” Thompson said. “I think those issues, jobs and health, are more important than all those other issues.”

Times staff writers Bill Billiter, Robert Elston and Jodi Wilgoren in Orange County and Robert W. Stewart in Washington contributed to this report.

Perot’s Pull

In May, Ross Perot ran a tight race with President Bush and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton nationwide, and ran ahead of both men in California and Orange County:

Nationwide (April 30-May 2) Bush: 33% Clinton: 30% Perot: 30% Others/Dont Know: 7%

California (May 16-19) Perot: 39% Clinton: 26% Bush: 25% Others/don’t know: 10%

Orange County (May 17-19) Perot: 42% Bush: 36% Clinton: 16% Others/don’t know: 6% Sources: Times Orange County Poll; Los Angeles Times Poll