ORANGE COUNTY VOICES : Post-GOP Convention Poll Offers Good and Bad News : Newest numbers will hearten Democrats and Republicans. But Bush and Clinton need credibility on economic issues.

The latest poll of Orange County voters’ presidential preferences, conducted on the weekend after the Republican convention, gives both Republicans and Democrats something to be happy about. It also suggests that the outcome of this race is still far from decided.

Local Republicans should be relieved to learn that George Bush is back on top in Orange County, leading Bill Clinton by 49% to 42%, or a seven-point margin. Clinton’s narrow lead in July turned out to be a short-lived phenomenon. Voters then were reacting to several events: the surprise departure of then-front-runner Ross Perot; media coverage of the Democratic convention; and news that the economy could be moving further into a recession. Those earlier polls, however, were snapshots taken at a highly unusual time.

In fact, it would take extraordinary circumstances for a Democrat to win in Orange County, where the GOP has a 55% majority in voter registration--even with a shaky economy.

So the presidential race in Orange County turns back into what it always is in statewide elections--a numbers game involving the size of the victory margin. Bush needs about a 2-1 landslide here, similar to his achievement in 1988 against Michael S. Dukakis, if he is to win California in a close election.

And herein lies the good news for Democrats. A seven-point lead, when the Republicans have a 20-point registration margin, means that Bush has reversed his slide but has failed to rally all his party members. Republicans today are far short of the 37-point margin they had in 1988, when Bush won Orange County by 317,000 votes and carried the state by little more. Clinton, meanwhile, appears to be holding down defections among his party’s members and even attracting non-members.

How do the latest results compare with the Bush-Dukakis race at the same stage? In late August of 1988, our polls showed Bush leading Dukakis by 32 points, or 60% to 28%. Nearly all the Republicans and a quarter of the Democrats and independents were with him. Today, Bush’s hold has slipped to 73% of Republicans and 17% of Democrats. Clinton, meanwhile, has picked up the support of one in five Republicans and also leads among independents and Perot supporters.

Bush’s post-convention bounce in the Orange County poll indicates that he did manage to raise doubts about Clinton in his speech last week. For instance, 77% of local voters now say Bush would be better than Clinton at handling foreign affairs, and 58% say the President would also be better at holding down taxes. Two in three see Bush as having strong leadership qualities, compared to 43% for Clinton.

However, Bush received only a moderate boost from his convention appearance because he gave local voters little reassurance about their biggest troubles. Six in 10 Orange County voters say they want to hear about the economy, unemployment and jobs in this presidential campaign. Bush spent little time on these topics and offered few specifics in his address last week. More than half the voters now see the county as mired in a serious recession, and only 18% expect improvement by the election. As a result, 60% still blame the President for our current economic troubles, although, partly agreeing with Bush’s version of events, 66% now also blame the Democratic Congress.

Both Clinton and Bush received their convention bounces by attacking each other and surrounding themselves with a supporting cast. Conventions in modern American politics are carefully staged events in which the candidates have opportunities to present their views without challenge or debate. Both candidates do have high negative ratings, with 47% unfavorable toward Bush and 49% unfavorable toward Clinton, and each has now taken advantage of his opponent’s negative images. And from now through Election Day, the polls will show the effects of the daily give and take on the candidates and the issues in the less predictable arena of the campaign trail.

The next critical stops on the road to the White House are the presidential debates. Local voters will be listening to the candidates’ plans for the economy. Neither Bush nor Clinton as yet has the edge on this important topic. So far, voters are evenly divided on who would do a better job in promoting economic prosperity, with 45% saying Bush and 40% choosing Clinton. How they decide this issue will probably determine who wins the election.

As an indication of how far both candidates have to go in convincing voters about their handling of economic issues, today, fewer than one in seven say it is very likely things will improve under either Bush or Clinton. Bush will have to be more specific about plans for improving the economy than he has been to date, if he is to move significantly upward in the local polls. And Clinton has to convince Democrats and independents that he has a realistic plan for creating jobs, while assuring them that he has what it takes to be a world leader.