O.C. Poll Shows Bush, Clinton in a Dead Heat : Politics: Without a big cushion here to offset the L.A.-Bay Area Democratic vote, President may lose state.

President Bush’s evanescent lead in Orange County after the Republican National Convention has dissipated in a new poll, which shows the White House candidates in a dead heat among voters in California’s Republican stronghold.

The results of the Orange County Annual Survey, completed Wednesday, found Democrat Bill Clinton favored by 41% of Orange County voters compared to 40% for Bush, a statistically irrelevant difference.

An earlier poll of Orange County voters published last week by The Times after the GOP convention ended on Aug. 20 found Bush with a seven-point lead, 49% to 42%.

In both surveys, Bush’s support was far short of the Republican Party’s 20-point lead over Democrats (54% to 34%) among registered voters in Orange County. As a result, it did not appear that the President had gained the level of support he needs from Orange County Republicans to offset California’s Democratic strengths in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.

In the 1988 election, Bush carried Orange County 68% to 31% over Democrat Michael Dukakis when he went on to win California, 51% to 48%.

Mark Baldassare, an urban planning professor at the University of California at Irvine who conducted the poll, said the root of Bush’s problems in Orange County can be traced to the economy. Six in 10 respondents said the economic outlook is bad for next year and, among that group, Clinton is favored over Bush 48% to 31%.

Twelve percent of the county’s voters were still undecided about the presidential race, and 7% were backing a candidate other than Bush or Clinton.

“The key to the election in Orange County may be the voters who are still undecided and those who are now supporting other candidates,” Baldassare said. “Also, the President needs a big boost in consumer confidence if he is to get back on track here.”

In California’s two U.S. Senate races, the survey found both Republican nominees leading in Orange County, but also by margins probably too small to carry the state.

Appointed Republican Sen. John Seymour, a former legislator from Anaheim, was leading Democrat Dianne Feinstein, 48% to 38%. And Bruce Herschensohn, a Republican and former television commentator, was ahead of Democratic Rep. Barbara Boxer, 46% to 40%.

The results are part of the 11th Orange County Annual Survey, a poll covering a variety of issues regarding Orange County. The survey began Aug. 26 and concluded Wednesday. It contacted 1,012 Orange County adults, including 826 registered voters. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.5%.

Detailed comparisons between the annual survey and the Times Poll can be misleading, because the two organizations may use different techniques. But generally, the pollsters said the two surveys do indicate that the level of Bush’s support has dropped.

“It suggests that rather than gaining the ground he desperately needs in Orange County, it appears that the President’s fortunes have drifted the other way,” said John Brennan, director of the Times Poll.

The Orange County results also reflect a trend indicated by several national polls in which the margin between Clinton and Bush narrowed to single digits after the Republican convention and widened again recently.

A national survey released Friday by Cable News Network and USA Today found Clinton leading the President, 54% to 39%.

Baldassare’s survey in Orange County indicated that Clinton was regaining some of the wayward Democrats who have fled to the Republican presidential candidates in the last three national elections.

The Arkansas governor was backed by 74% of the voters in his party compared to Bush’s 61% support from the GOP. Also, one in five Republican voters said they would vote for Clinton compared to one in 10 Democrats supporting Bush.

Significantly, however, Clinton was leading Bush nearly 2 to 1 among independent or minor-party voters. Independent voters are crucial for Republicans in California, since Democrats hold a lead among registered voters statewide.

Clinton also did slightly better among younger voters and those with incomes less than $36,000.

In the Senate race between Seymour and Feinstein, the survey indicated that the two candidates were battling over some of the same voters.

Both were backed by two-thirds of the voters in their own parties, and both gained 20% of the support from their opponents’ base. Feinstein led among independent voters, 44% to 37%.

Seymour and Feinstein are running for the Senate seat vacated by Pete Wilson when he was elected governor in 1990. Wilson appointed Seymour to fill the seat until the November election, which will determine the officeholder for the remaining two years of Wilson’s Senate term. Another election for the Senate seat will be held in 1994.

Boxer and Herschensohn are running for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston.

“Looking at the numbers, both Feinstein and Boxer seem to be drawing a fair amount of support from their own party as well as from Republicans and independents,” Baldassare said. “Therefore, even if they don’t win in Orange County, they should be able to win statewide by keeping down the margin of Republican victory here.”

Both the Times Poll and Baldassare’s survey do not indicate a decisive “gender gap” in the support of men and women voters. The support for both Feinstein and Boxer was just four points higher among women than voters overall.

Clinton, Bush Running Even

The presidential race in Orange County is neck-and-neck, according to the Orange County Annual Survey. President Bush is struggling largely due to voter concerns about the economy.

The survey asked: “If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Bill Clinton and Al Gore, or the Republican ticket of George Bush and Dan Quayle?”

Aug. 26-Sept. 2 Aug. 22-23* Clinton/Gore 41% 42% Bush/Quayle 40% 49% Other 7% 2% Don’t know 12% 7%

Clinton/Gore Bush/Quayle Other Don’t know See good times next year 28% 58% 5% 9% See bad times next year 48% 31% 9% 12% Better off than last year 37% 49% 5% 9% Worse off than last year 49% 31% 9% 11%

* Los Angeles Times Poll, slightly different question wording

Source: Orange County Annual Survey, UC Irvine

GOP Has Edge in Senate Races

Both Republican nominees for the two U.S. Senate seats on the ballot in California are leading their Democratic opponents in Orange County. While women split their votes about evenly, men favor the GOP candidates in both races.

These questions were asked: “If the election for U.S. senator for the two-year seat were held today, would you vote for Dianne Feinstein, the Democrat, or U.S. Sen. John Seymour, the Republican?” and “If the election for U.S. senator for the six-year seat were held today, would you vote for U.S. Rep. Barbara Boxer, the Democrat, or Bruce Herschensohn, the Republican?” Two-Year Seat Seymour: 48% Feinstein: 38% Other/don’t know: 14% Six-Year Seat Herschensohn: 46% Boxer: 40% Other/don’t know: 14%

Two-Year Seat Six-Year S Other/ Feinstein Seymour Don’t know Boxer Herschensohn Men 34% 55% 11% 35% 53% Women 42% 41% 17% 44% 41% Democrats 66% 20% 14% 70% 17% Republicans 20% 67% 13% 21% 66% Independents 44% 37% 19% 38% 38%

eat Other/ Don’t know Men 12% Women 15% Democrats 13% Republicans 13% Independents 24%

Source: Orange County Annual Survey, UC Irvine