Political Dead Heat in Orange County Poll : Campaign: Democrat Clinton is favored by 41% in GOP stronghold. Bush’s 40% backing contrasts with his lead in survey taken after convention.

The lead President Bush took in one poll of Orange County voters following the Republican National Convention has dissipated in another survey that shows him in a dead heat with Democrat Bill Clinton in California’s GOP stronghold.

The results of the Orange County Annual Survey, a poll conducted by UC Irvine professor Mark Baldassare, found Clinton favored by 41% of Orange County voters compared to 40% for Bush, a statistically irrelevant difference.

A Los Angeles Times Poll of Orange County voters taken in the wake of the GOP convention that ended on Aug. 20 found Bush with a 7 percentage point lead, 49% to 42%.

In both surveys, Bush’s support was far short of the 20-percentage-point advantage (54% to 34%) that Republicans enjoy over Democrats among Orange County’s registered voters. And even in the earlier of the two polls, Bush was falling short of the level of support he likely will need in Orange County to offset California’s traditional Democratic strongholds in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.

In the 1988 election, Bush carried Orange County 68% to 31% over Democrat Michael S. Dukakis, a margin which propelled him to his overall 51% to 48% win in California.

The Orange County Annual Survey, a poll covering a variety of issues regarding the county, began Aug. 26 and was concluded Wednesday. The poll’s political questions were asked of 826 registered voters. This portion of the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 1/2 percentage points

Pollster Baldassare said the root of the President’s problems in Orange County can be traced to the economy--6 in 10 respondents in the new survey rated the economic outlook for the next year as poor and among that group, Clinton is favored over the President, 48% to 31%.

Twelve percent of the county’s voters were undecided about who to support in the presidential race, while 7% backed a candidate other than Bush or Clinton.

“The key to the election in Orange County may be the voters who are still undecided and those who are now supporting other candidates,” Baldassare said. “Also, the President needs a big boost in consumer confidence if he is to get back on track here.”

In California’s two U.S. Senate races, the survey found both Republican nominees leading in Orange County, but also by margins that traditionally would be too small to carry the state.

Republican Sen. John Seymour, a former legislator from Anaheim who was appointed to his seat in early 1991, led Democrat Dianne Feinstein, 48% to 38%. Bruce Herschensohn, a Republican and former television commentator, was ahead of Democratic Rep. Barbara Boxer, 46% to 40%, for the seat being given up by Democrat Alan Cranston.

“Both Feinstein and Boxer seem to be drawing a fair amount of support from their own party as well as from Republicans and independents,” Baldassare said. “Therefore, even if they don’t win in Orange County, they should be able to win statewide by keeping down the margin of Republican victory here.”

Detailed comparisons between the annual survey and the Los Angeles Times Poll can be misleading because the two organizations may use different techniques. But John Brennan, director of The Times Poll, said “it appears the President’s fortunes have drifted the other way” in Orange County after initially rebounding following the GOP convention.

The results of the two recent Orange County polls also reflect a trend indicated by several national surveys, in which Clinton’s margin over Bush narrowed to single digits immediately after the Republican Convention but has since widened.

For instance, a national survey released Friday by Cable News Network and USA Today found Clinton leading Bush, 54% to 39%.

Signs of trouble for Bush in Orange County date back to last December, when some prominent local Republicans hosted a breakfast for Clinton, in part to telegraph their displeasure with Bush’s handling of the economy. The problems were compounded when polls found Ross Perot cutting heavily into Bush’s GOP support during the time the Texas businessman was flirting with a presidential run.

Baldassare’s survey indicated that Clinton was regaining some of the wayward Democrats in Orange County who have voted Republican in recent presidential elections. The Arkansas governor was backed by 74% of the voters in his party, compared to Bush’s 61% support among members of the GOP. Clinton also led Bush nearly 2-to-1 among independent or minor party voters.