Local Races a Priority for O.C. Lincoln Club : Politics: GOP group changes its focus from major campaigns to legislative and congressional contests.

This is a club of wealthy people who think big.

Its members include those who once looked at Orange County’s citrus groves and saw an opportunity to create future cities. Others once eyed a young spokesman for General Electric named Ronald Reagan and saw the next governor of California.

Now, leaders of the Republican Lincoln Club of Orange County envision a new landscape in American politics.

It is the byproduct of a bad economy, anger at government and newly reapportioned political boundaries. Combined, they believe it will give the GOP its best opportunity in decades to wrest control of the legislative branches in Sacramento and Washington away from the Democrats.

It’s a chance they don’t want to miss. So, in a break with its past focus on larger races, the Lincoln Club is planning to export at least $250,000 in Orange County contributions to Republican candidates throughout California running for the state Assembly and Congress.

Combined with individual contributions from the club’s 300 members, officials said, Orange County is likely to generate up to $2 million in contributions, much of it going to two dozen targeted Republican candidates in California, all but one outside Orange County.

“We need a fresh look, a fresh vision,” said Gus A. Owen, the club’s president. “That is why we need a Congress that will work with (President Bush) and a Legislature that will work with (Gov.) Pete Wilson.”

Since it was founded in Orange County 30 years ago by a group that included such famous Orange County names as J. S. Fluor and Walter Knott, the Lincoln Club has been a forum for the business elite to participate in politics.

The club grew out of the ashes of the 1962 election, when Richard Nixon lost a bitterly fought battle for California governor to Democrat Edmund G. (Pat) Brown Sr.

The founders concluded that the campaigns for governor and other offices were so acrimonious that they split the GOP, wasted money on intraparty primaries and left Republican candidates vulnerable to Democrats. Their answer was to treat politics more like they ran their businesses--recruit candidates like corporate headhunters and back their choices with the necessary financial investments.

Today, the Orange County Lincoln Club has inspired eight spinoff clubs throughout the state and it generates more money for Republican campaigns than any other club in California.

But this year’s focus on state legislative and congressional races beyond Orange County’s borders is a departure for the group. Traditionally, it has supported only about three or four legislative candidates in an election year, giving most of its attention to statewide or national issues and candidates.

For the last several weeks, however, the club’s leadership has been involved in strategy meetings with top state and national political managers, analyzing volumes of data from private polls, past election results and candidate profiles.

Last month, the club hosted a high-level meeting at the Hyatt Regency Irvine for top GOP fund-raisers from around the state to hear a campaign battle plan from the Republican leaders in the Legislature and the governor’s office.

The participants were given pie charts, bar graphs, district maps and campaign handicaps.

The strategists said a district with more than 40% Republican registration is considered winnable. And according to the charts, 42 Assembly seats now meet that standard--one seat more than the Republicans would need for a majority in the 80-member Assembly.

Before reapportionment, only 27 Assembly districts met the GOP “winnability” threshold.

Still, the group was told it will be a tall order to secure control of the Legislature or California’s congressional delegation.

In the Assembly, Republicans would have to hang on to their 33 seats and win eight more to gain control. And in Congress, Republicans hold just 17 of the state’s 45 seats.

The good news for Republicans is that seven new House seats will be added to the California delegation with November’s election, and because of the reapportionment that followed the 1990 Census, many are located in predominantly Republican areas.

In Congress, the Lincoln Club’s effort will be coordinated with a Washington-based Republican organization called GOPAC that is targeting House races throughout the country. GOPAC is headed in Washington by Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), and Owen is the group’s California director.

Owen said GOPAC is hoping to generate $1.4 million--about $100,000 for each of about 12 to 14 California Republican congressional candidates. The Lincoln Club money will be part of that effort. And other Lincoln Clubs throughout the state are expected to participate.

In the Assembly, the Lincoln Club’s contributions will also be coordinated with a statewide effort organized by the Republican caucus in Sacramento called “Opportunity 92.”

“I think we’re going to come in just short of being a majority,” said Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach). “But we’re going to be so strong that things will never be the same as they were before.”

Meanwhile, Democrats say they are confident of their grip on the Assembly and Congress, especially since polls show enthusiasm being generated for the top of the ticket by Senate candidates Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, as well as presidential nominee Bill Clinton.

Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco) has predicted that Democrats will hold all of their seats in the Legislature and possibly gain a few.

With many of the races just beginning to heat up, it is difficult to gauge the impact of Orange County’s contribution. The money, which is still to be released, is certain to help Republican candidates, but it is not likely to be decisive, especially since an infusion of Republican money can often trigger a counter donation from major Democratic organizations.

“There is an impact,” said John Burton, campaign manager for Republican challenger Dick Rutan’s attempt to unseat Rep. George E. Brown Jr. (D-Riverside). “Being targeted means that everybody is busy. You know Brown is busy. And you can expect it to be a hot race.”

But even without winning control of the Assembly or the state’s congressional delegation, Lincoln Club leaders are convinced that Republican issues will be much more successful if the party gains a few more seats.

“We are going to do the best we can to pound home the ‘Rule of 41’--that is, you have 41 members in the Assembly and you rule it,” said Buck Johns, a developer and member of the Lincoln Club’s board of directors. “Willie Brown will not be in there if we get 38 seats; if we get 41, it will be a Republican.”

While the state legislative and California congressional races are a priority, the Lincoln Club will also provide support to its two Republican U.S. Senate candidates--John Seymour and Bruce Herschensohn. And it is donating about $133,000 to help turn out Republican voters in Orange County, which is crucial to the Senate and presidential races.

But the club’s focus on local races is especially significant because--as Johns acknowledged--it will mean less direct attention on the presidential race, just as Bush is struggling in California, a crucial state for Republican hopes of retaining the White House.

The Lincoln Club has endorsed Bush. But strains within the club have been evident. Some supporters have complained about the President’s lack of performance on the economy.

The disunity was raised to the surface recently when two prominent Lincoln Club members--developer Kathryn Thompson and Western Digital Corp. chairman Roger W. Johnson--announced their support for Democrat Bill Clinton.

The split was particularly sensitive because Thompson is married to Owen, the club’s president, and she was a member of the club’s board of directors. Thompson, who is also a former member of Bush’s elite Team 100 organization of top contributors, resigned her position on the Lincoln Club board when she announced her support for Clinton.

Lincoln Club officials said the focus on local races was not caused by a lack of support for Bush. Instead, in this strange election year, they said political coattails are reversed--this time Bush could benefit from the Republican success in local races and the club’s effort to generate voters there.

“If we get the Assembly, we turn around California,” said Johns. “We are not saying that we are ignoring the presidential race, but every time we turn out a Republican vote, they’re going to start at the top of the ticket.”

While control of the White House is important, Owen also noted that many of the Republican goals of a smaller government are also largely dependent on the lower chambers in Washington and Sacramento.

“I am critical of Bush and Quayle,” said Owen, also a prominent developer. “But they are only two people and they cannot get things through alone.”

Lincoln Club’s Target Races

In hopes of increasing GOP representation in the Legislature and Congress, the Lincoln Club of Orange County plans to send contributions to about two dozen races throughout the state.

In the Assembly, Republicans hold 33 seats and Democrats have 47. The races listed here are among those considered priorities by state Republican leaders, although Lincoln Club officials did not identify the specific races to which they will contribute.

In California’s congressional delegation, Republicans hold 17 of the 45 existing seats. Seven new seats will be added in November’s election. The races listed here were identified by a Washington-based Republican political action committee called GOPAC and are expected to receive contributions from Orange County’s Lincoln Club.

PROMINENT MEMBERS OF THE LINCOLN CLUB * Gus A. Owen: president, Owen Properties * George Argyros: chairman and CEO, Arnel Development Corp. * Gary Hunt: executive vice president, Irvine Co. * John C. Flanigan: California director of President Bush’s campaign * Donald Koll: developer; chairman and CEO, Koll Co. * Athalie Clarke: Irvine Co. heiress * William Lyon: developer; president, William Lyon Corp. * Peter Muth: chairman and CEO, Orco Block Co. * Rick Muth: president, Orco Block Co. * Stephen Knott: general partner, Knott’s Berry Farm * Anthony Moiso: president, Santa Margarita Co. * Karl O. Bergheer: president, Bergheer Co. * Buck Johns: president, Inland Group CONGRESSIONAL TARGETS 3rd District: Sacramento area 48% Democratic; 39% Republican Incumbent Democrat Vic Fazio vs. Republican H. L. Richardson, a former state legislator 6th District: Marin County area 53% Democratic; 32% Republican Open seat; Democrat Lynn Woolsey vs. Republican Assemblyman William J. Filante 11th District: San Joaquin area 51% Democratic; 39% Republican Open seat; Democrat Patricia Garamendi vs. Republican Richard Pombo 14th District: South San Francisco Bay area 47% Democratic; 37% Republican Open seat; Democrat Anna Eshoo vs. Republican Tom Huening 19th District: Northern San Joaquin Valley 47% Democratic; 43% Republican Incumbent Democrat Richard H. Lehman vs. Republican Tal Cloud 24th District: San Fernando Valley 45% Democratic; 43% Republican Incumbent Democrat Anthony C. Beilenson vs. Republican Assemblyman Tom McClintock 36th District: Santa Monica Bay Area 42% Democratic; 45% Republican Open seat; Democrat Jane Harman vs. Republican Los Angeles Councilwoman Joan Milke Flores 38th District: Long Beach 48% Democratic; 41% Republican Open seat; Democrat Evan Braude vs. Republican Steve Horn, former Long Beach State University president 41st District: Orange, Los Angeles, San Bernardino counties 39% Democratic; 50% Republican Open seat; Democrat Bob Baker vs. Republican Jay Kim 42nd District: San Bernardino County 52% Democratic; 39% Republican Incumbent Democrat George E. Brown Jr. vs. Republican Dick Rutan, round-the-world pilot of the Voyager 43rd District: Western Riverside County 43% Democratic; 46% Republican Open seat; Democrat Mark Takano vs. Republican Ken Calvert 49th District: Coastal San Diego County 39% Democratic; 44% Republican Open seat; Democrat Lynn Schenk vs. Republican Judy Jarvis ASSEMBLY TARGETS District 22: Western San Jose and Sunnyvale area 48% Democratic; 36% Republican Incumbent Democrat John Vasconcellos vs. Republican Tim Jeffries District 41: Coastal Santa Monica Bay area 50% Democratic; 39% Republican Incumbent Democrat Terry B. Friedman vs. Republican Christine Reed, former Santa Monica mayor District 56: North Long Beach and Lakewood 49% Democratic; 41% Republican Incumbent Democrat Bob Epple vs. Republican Phil Hawkins District 64: Cities of Riverside and Norco 45% Democratic; 44% Republican Open seat; Democrat Jane Carney vs. Republican Ted Weggeland, former congressional aide District 66: Corona and Lake Elsinore area 53% Republican; 35% Democratic Open seat; Republican attorney Ray Haynes vs. Democrat Patsy Hockersmith District 69: Central Orange County 50% Democratic; 40% Republican Incumbent Democrat Tom Umberg vs. Republican Jo Ellen Allen District 76: North San Diego County 44% Republican; 40% Democratic Incumbent Democrat Mike Gotch vs. Republican Dick Daleke, Navy veteran District 77: San Diego County, El Cajon 46% Republican; 39% Democratic Open seat; Republican businessman Steve Baldwin vs. Democrat Tom Connolly District 78: City of San Diego 45% Republican; 38% Democratic Incumbent Democrat Deidre Alpert vs. Republican Jeff Marston, ex-Assemblyman Sources: Lincoln Club of Orange County, Republican Party’s Opportunity ‘92, Republican GOPAC Researched by DAVE LESHER and JANICE L. JONES / Los Angeles Times