For Bush, It’s Getting as Bad as It Gets in Politics

It is during the last 10 days of September that presidential races assume a posture only truly monumental events can overturn. As we enter this period, there is little to suggest that George Bush is making any meaningful head way in overcoming Bill Clinton’s lead.

Polls are never more than a still photograph extracted from a moving picture. But polls taken between now and the election will begin to reflect an ever more accurate picture of of the outcome of the presidential race.

I used to figure that by the first of October, upward of 80% of those who were going to vote in November had already made up their minds. In a close race, the remaining 20% would constitute enough voters for either candidate to gain victory. But let’s say that the next reliable national poll continues to give Clinton a double-digit lead. There may not be enough votes available in the undecided column for Bush to win.

It is against this background that I find it difficult to understand the Bush campaign’s decision to cooperate in the cancellation of this week’s scheduled presidential debate. Citing problems with a format suggested by a non-partisan commission, the Bush people, in effect, relinquished their best clear shot at altering the thought processes of perhaps 80% of the voters. One would not think that simple reservations over format would result in such a decision.

During the first 10 days in October, it is the habit of the television networks and the larger daily newspapers to put forward assessments of the candidates’ electoral-college strength. While these prognosticators are reluctant to show that the race is over in early October, the state-by-state rundowns can produce a serious blow to the candidate who is behind. If CBS proclaims the race is essentially over in a particular state, it is difficult, bordering on impossible, to keep your workers working or your fund raisers fund raising. Such a declaration, in and of itself, will probably cost a campaign an additional 3% in the next statewide poll.

Such is the enormity of the task facing the Bush staff as we head into the last six weeks of the campaign. Having so far failed to scare the people over the prospect of a Clinton presidency, having given the people little reason to expect anything new or different in a second Bush Administration, the Bush campaign now is on the threshold of the weekly drumbeat of polls, electoral-college estimates and finely worded accounts from the pundits that theirs is a losing cause. To be behind in the polls is one thing; but to try to carry on a campaign against the background of a growing consensus that you will lose no matter what you do is about as bad as it gets in politics.

The most realistic hope for Bush is that, during the next 10 days, people will change their focus from whether they want another four years of Bush to whether they really want Clinton to be President. If the concerns over the economy weren’t so grave, I think such a change in itself would help Bush. But under these circumstances, it is necessary that Clinton do something, or say something, that would raise doubt about whether he should be trusted to be President. Here again, the absence of any chance to debate in September is a stumbling block. If Bush keeps dancing around too much about the debates, it is conceivable that Clinton will escape without having to participate in any.

It looks increasingly likely that we will decide very little in this election. If it is true that the polls and opinions about who will win now start to dominate the political news, there will be little incentive for Clinton to tell us anything more about what he will do in office. Bush, meantime, will be seen taking ever wilder swings at his opponent’s jaw.

Last week, there was a currency exchange-rate crisis in Europe. Today, it appears as if the French people will reject European union, and there are rumblings in Moscow that Boris N. Yeltsin is losing his power. I don’t suppose we could get our presidential candidates to discuss any of these matters, or tell us, in their considered judgment, what impact these events may have on the United States, or the world. I guess that would be asking too much.