The Old Underdog Strategy

Bruce Herschensohn, the man who would be senator in the Year of the Woman, had won the coin flip. It was his choice. He could make the opening remarks. Or he could let his opponent, Congresswoman Barbara Boxer, go first, and thus reserve for himself the last words of the night.

He looked at the crowd. This debate was being sponsored by a coalition called Women Vote 92, and the Hilton ballroom was stuffed with women--liberal, San Francisco women. They had not come to cheer him, a right-wing male from Los Angeles. He looked at Boxer, a popular congresswoman from nearby Marin County who now leads by almost 20 points in the polls. He shrugged.

“Oh,” he told the debate moderator, all hang-dog and humble, “it doesn’t make any difference” who goes first. He turned to Boxer. “Whatever you like, Barbara. Do you have a preference?”

“I’d like to close the debate,” she said brightly, and the crowd cheered, sensing an early strategic blunder by Herschensohn. Sitting in the middle of the audience, surrounded by women wearing Anita Hill T-shirts, my reaction was different. Uh-oh, I said to myself. He’s doing it again. Here comes Underdog.

*

A friend who’s in the business of electing Republican senators offers this analysis of Herschensohn’s upset victory over Tom Campbell, his better-financed primary opponent:

Herschensohn let Campbell paint him as the original right-wing crank, the unelectable candidate who stood for stripping old people of their Social Security, and so forth. He held fire as Campbell built a lead. Then, at the end, he took his droopy eyes and genial manner to the voters. Expecting Atilla the Hun, they found Herschensohn by comparison a nice guy, and certainly earnest in his conservative convictions. “Why would I want to hurt old people?” Herschensohn would ask. Goodby, Tom.

Judging by the debate Monday night, Boxer seems capable of falling into the same trap. She ridiculed Herschensohn all night, poking fun at his proposals to maintain the defense budget at Cold War levels and institute a flat tax. She kept using the phrase “out of touch.” He was out of touch with California, with the nation, with reality. By implication, a nut.

Herschensohn reacted meekly to most of Boxer’s barbs. He would shake his head, smile ruefully, shrug. Golly, he said at one point, if she could prove his flat tax proposal actually would hurt the middle class, why he’d withdraw it. “Why would I want to hurt the middle class,” he asked?

His remarks often were hissed by the audience, and this, too, probably worked in his favor. The debate was being telecast live by C-SPAN, and I suspect in many California living rooms Herschensohn came across as what Richard Nixon called the “man in the ring,” the candidate surrounded by hostiles, gamely slugging away. Nixon paid for television commercials that would produce that effect. Monday night, Herschensohn got it for free.

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The battle between Boxer and Herschensohn has been described as a referendum on California’s political extremes. Rather than a showdown between right vs. left, however, this race, like all statewide races, will be a struggle for the middle. I suppose this explains why Boxer seemed almost eager in the debate to discuss her support of the death penalty.

The ideologues, I am sure, already have made up their minds. Consultants say that the more pliable voters will not focus on the campaign until early October. That is when Herschensohn can be expected to counterattack. He’ll lower his sad eyes, sell his earnestness and surprise those who’ve been led to expect an overexcited caveman. He’ll attack Washington and anyone associated with it, including Boxer. In short, Ronald Reagan all over again.

Boxer gave him some fodder. I had expected her to ignore him altogether and cast herself as an “agent of change,” a strong, tough woman out to take on the virtually all-male Senate. Instead, she kept returning to her legislative record, describing various bills she had carried in her 10 years in Congress. This is dangerous footing. While 1992 is the Year of the Woman, it is also the Year of the Angry Voter, and insiders beware.

Of course, 20 points is a long haul, and what worked against Tom Campbell in a primary might not play in a general election. Also, if Bush remains weak, the Democrats will maintain the momentum and cripple GOP turnout. So, in the end, Herschensohn’s goose might be cooked already, as everyone, including his opponents, seems to believe.

Myself, I’m not wholly convinced. As we say in these gender-sensitive times, it ain’t over till the fat man sings.