Bush Ad Assumes a Lot to Slam Clinton’s Plan

President Bush’s campaign unveiled its third commercial of the general election campaign this week. The 30-second spot is running nationally, and with greater frequency in the 11 battleground states--Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Campaign aides to Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton reacted quickly, calling reporters to blast the ad as blatantly inaccurate.

The Ad: “Bill Clinton says he’ll only tax the rich to pay for his campaign promises,” a female narrator begins. “But here’s what Clinton economics could mean to you.” On screen, a man identified as John Canes, a steamfitter who makes $40,000 a year, looks at the camera. “$1,088 more in taxes,” the narrator says. Then Lori Huntoon, a scientist, is pictured. “$2,072 more in taxes,” the narrator says. “One hundred leading economists say this plan means higher taxes and bigger deficits.” Other average citizens are shown, with similar calculations of tax hikes. “You can’t trust Clinton economics,” the narrator says. “It’s wrong for you. It’s wrong for America.”

Analysis: The ad is based on questionable analyses of Clinton’s tax proposals that come dangerously close to misrepresentation, as well as hypothetical assumptions. The dollar amounts it asserts people would pay, for instance, stem from an assumption of what Clinton would do if his economic plan--which calls for higher taxes on the richest 2% of households and a surtax on millionaires--fell short of its revenue estimates. The Bush campaign cannot know with any real confidence how far off those estimates might be. Nor can it know how a Clinton Administration would react to shortfalls; aides to the Democrat have indicated he would cut spending.

One of the ad’s key underlying calculations is that Clinton’s health care plan would cost an extra $197 billion a year. Clinton argues that the plan’s cost would be offset by reforms in insurance and agreed-upon ceilings on health costs. The Bush ad further assumes that a Clinton plan to collect more taxes from foreign corporations doing business in the United States would only generate an additional $1 billion over four years. The Clinton campaign says it would generate $44 billion. In fact, estimates of the money that could be raised this way vary widely, with some congressional Republicans contending the government could raise more than twice as much as Clinton says. In justifying the ad, the Bush team also argues that the $58-billion spending cuts Clinton has proposed are “totally fake.” To make up for these various shortfalls, the Bush ad assumes Clinton would raise taxes on the middle class--down to those making as little as $36,000 a year. The ad also ignores a tax cut on the middle class that Clinton has proposed. He has wavered on how large a cut it would be, but it remains a part of his plan.