Oversupply Could Depress Non-star Free Agents Fees

Going into the weekend, there were 182 players possibly eligible for free agency following the World Series, up about 80 from a similar time at the end of the 1991 season.

What does that mean for the market this winter? Will oversupply depress prices for non-stars? Some agents seem to think so.

“Buyers who have more available options usually have more bargaining power and usually make better deals,” Randy Hendricks said. “But the premier players will nevertheless command premier prices.”

In other words, Barry Bonds, Ruben Sierra, Kirby Puckett and Joe Carter will get top prices, as will David Cone, Doug Drabek and Greg Maddux. But below that, players now making a million dollars or more may see their salaries cut drastically.

“I think in the second and third tiers, it’s going to be very difficult for a lot of players,” Tom Reich said. “Not for every player, but for a lot of players. There are teams who have huge needs that will be able to help to fulfill some of those needs at a reasonable cost. But there’s duplication because of the numbers, so teams have a lot more choices than they normally have.”

Teams have the choices of releasing players or not offering them 1993 contracts. Either would prevent players from going to arbitration. They would be free, but may be forced to take deals for less guaranteed money and more performance bonuses.

“I think it would be dangerous to overgeneralize,” Hendricks said. “You have to look at each area and see what is available. If there is a number to choose from, you’re going to see salaries depressed for those type players. The market is adjusting to say that from a historical prospective, certain categories of players -- to wit the superstars -- were underpaid, and another category -- the good but unspectacular player -- was overpaid.”