THOROUGHBRED RACING : A Few Horses Shy of a Success

Leaders of the racing industry were optimistic after their experiment with the National Pic 6, which was offered at tracks across the country on three recent Saturdays. “We’ve proved to the world that we can do it,” said Bob Bork, Arlington Park’s general manager, who was one of the driving forces behind the new wager. “I think we may be on-line on a regular basis by late spring.”

Certainly, it was encouraging to see the sport embracing a bold, innovative idea and executing a complex task with only minor glitches. But anyone who watched and wagered on the National Pic 6 had to recognize one disheartening fact. It’s getting tougher and tougher for U.S. racetracks to put on competitive races with large fields that make good betting attractions. A shortage of horses has plagued the day-to-day cards at many tracks, but the problem was painfully obvious even as the industry was trying to put its best foot forward for the National Pic 6.

This wager was conceived by the 1995 Committee, a group of farsighted racing executives looking for new ways to stimulate more public interest in racing.

It was launched on Sept. 12, as bettors at some 50 tracks from coast to coast wagered into a single pool on six races and then watched on a special one-hour telecast. This tight schedule was initially a source of worry, but Bork said, “All the races went off right on schedule.” It was a refreshing change to see races run in rapid-fire sequence instead of spaced a half-hour apart.

From the technical standpoint, the venture got passing marks, though payoffs couldn’t be announced until at least a couple hours after the final race. “It went fairly smoothly,” said Chris Scherf, executive vice president of the Thoroughbred Racing Associations. “There were some problems -- mostly human error -- but a lot of them could be eradicated by improvements in the computer system.”

The 1995 Committee had assumed that if the technical barriers could be surmounted, a National Pic 6 would be a sure-fire winner. The wager would have tremendous appeal for horseplayers because a national betting pool could conceivably generate payoffs in hundreds of thousands of dollars -- maybe even millions. But when horseplayers opened the racing form to handicap the National Pic 6, it was immediately obvious that these races weren’t going to yield any such bonanza.

Saturday, none of the National Pic 6 races attracted more than nine horses -- and they were uncompetitive, small fields as well. Meafara looked unbeatable in the Weekend Delight Stakes at Turfway Park and paid $3.20. Explosive Kate had minimal competition in a race for Illinois-breds at Arlington International, where she paid $3.40. Stakes from Beulah Park and Thistledown were so thin that only two horses in each field had a plausible chance of winning.

Fields in Pic 6 races were often weakened and altered by scratches, which not only made them less competitive but frustrated handicappers who might have burned the midnight oil to plan their betting strategy. Events were often completely transformed by scratches -- as in one race at Philadelphia Park that was reduced from 12 horses to seven by late defections. The National Pic 6 needs to advance its scratch time to the day before the race.

In each of the three weeks of the National Pic 6, the menu of races looked sufficiently unappetizing and uncompetitive that potentially serious bettors were discouraged from getting too involved.

Picking six winners Saturday returned only about $2,700. (The payoff varied according to the takeout at each track.) In the previous two weeks, the payoffs had been $4,200 and $39,000--the latter occurring when some of the overwhelming favorites were upset.

The slim possibilities for a blockbuster payoff surely hurt total wagering, but even so the National Pic 6 pool averaged about $800,000 a day--a respectable figure that suggests the concept does have potential.

Bork said he believes the National Pic 6 may be offered once every two weeks, beginning in the spring. He envisions coverage on commercial television stations; the addition of daily doubles, exactas and other forms of wagering; and the participation of many more tracks.

But this venture will be a disappointment unless the organizers of the program take pains to schedule stakes races that will have large, competitive fields. It would be absurd if the organizers of the National Pic 6 expended so much effort and developed such advanced technology so that American horseplayers could bet on a 2-5 shot in a five-horse race at Louisiana Downs.