THE TIMES POLL : Voters Evenly Split Over Proposal to Cut Welfare : Propositions: Term-limit measure has wide support in state. Contests close on euthanasia and tax increases.

Californians are evenly divided over Proposition 165, Gov. Pete Wilson’s proposal to cut welfare and strengthen his budget powers, and the measure’s fate may hinge on which party does a better job on voter turnout, according to The Los Angeles Times Poll.

Wilson’s fellow Republicans back the initiative by more than 2 to 1 while Democrats oppose it by the same lopsided ratio, a statewide survey showed. So the partisan composition of the electorate next Tuesday probably will determine whether the hotly contested measure passes or fails.

At the same time, Wilson’s ability to attract support for the measure is weakened by his basic unpopularity. The governor’s job rating inched downward and hit a new all-time low in this survey, with only 29% approving of his performance in Sacramento and 62% disapproving.

The Times Poll also found very close contests over two other ballot measures: Proposition 161, to allow doctor-assisted suicide and euthanasia, and Proposition 167, to increase taxes on business and the wealthy.

But voters overwhelmingly support Proposition 164, to impose term limits on members of Congress, by a 2-to-1 ratio--a margin of 33 percentage points. They also favor Proposition 166, to require firms to provide health insurance for its employees, by a 14-point margin.

There remains a lot of confusion about most of these measures, however, and many voters may not firm up their decisions until Election Day.

For example, until Proposition 167 was explained to people by Times Poll interviewers, nearly three-fourths did not know enough about it to offer an opinion. The situation was similar with nearly two-thirds of those surveyed on Proposition 166, more than half on Proposition 165, nearly half on Proposition 161, and 4 in 10 on Proposition 164. Only on term limits do most voters seem to have made up their minds.

After people were read a summary of each proposal, together with some pro and con arguments, these were the results among registered voters:

Proposition 161, euthanasia--For 49%, against 45%, undecided 6%.

Proposition 164, term limits--For 61%, against 28%, undecided 11%.

Proposition 165, welfare-budget--For 42%, against 43%, undecided 15%.

Proposition 166, health insurance--For 49%, against 35%, undecided 16%.

Proposition 167, taxes--For 42%, against 44%, undecided 14%.

Counting only voters considered likely to cast ballots made a slight difference on two of the measures. The euthanasia proposal was down by three points among likely voters, instead of being up by four. And the tax proposal was down by seven points, instead of by two.

The Times Poll, directed by John Brennan, interviewed 1,110 registered voters by telephone Oct. 20-23. Because of the length of the questionnaire, which also included an extensive survey on the presidential and Senate races, the voter sample was split for the proposition questions. Half of those interviewed were asked about three propositions and the rest were queried about the other two measures. The margin of error for all voters interviewed is three percentage points; for the split sample it is five points.

Wilson’s ability to attract votes for his political causes--including passage of Proposition 165 and Republican takeover of the state Assembly--clearly is handicapped by his unpopularity after less than two years in office. After Wilson raised taxes by a record amount in his first year and set a record for spending cuts in his second, following a record-length budget gridlock, his job approval also has hit a record low.

Voters who especially disapprove of the governor’s job performance--besides liberals and Democrats--include philosophical moderates, women, those under age 45 and residents of the San Francisco Bay Area. Wilson derives his biggest support from fellow Republicans, but even within the GOP, only roughly half approve of the way he is handling his duties.

Still, the voters’ regard for how the Legislature has been doing its job is even lower: Just 13% approve, while 74% disapprove. Democratic lawmakers control the Legislature, but even two-thirds of Democratic voters disapprove of the institution’s performance.

The electorate’s anti-incumbent attitude today is stronger than two years ago when voters imposed legislative term limits by passing Proposition 140. During the fall of 1990, 46% of the registered voters interviewed by The Times Poll said the Assembly member representing their district deserved to be reelected. In this latest survey, only 35% felt that way. Another 30% believed their Assembly incumbents should not be returned to Sacramento and 35% were not sure.

Regarding members of Congress, only 37% said the local incumbent deserved to be reelected. Another 30% did not think so and 33% weren’t sure.

But pollster Brennan said: “There is little evidence in this poll that the heightened anti-incumbent feeling necessarily translates into gains for one party over the other at the state level. A state poll cannot predict the shifts of seats in individual legislative districts.”

There are various political tugs at work, including the redistricting of legislative and congressional seats that is expected to help Republican candidates, and a Democratic tide powered by economic discontent and presidential nominee Bill Clinton that could boost Democratic contenders.

Among likely voters, 49% said they would like to see the Democratic candidate win in their Assembly districts, and 41% opted for the Republican. Also, 51% said they would prefer the local Democratic congressional candidate, and 40% chose the Republican. It is not coincidental, of course, that these responses are somewhat similar to the statewide breakdown of party registration.

Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the Assembly by 47 to 33, and in California’s delegation to the U.S. House by 26 to 19. When registered voters were asked which party they thought could “do a better job handling the problems California faces today,” 46% responded Democratic and 32% answered Republican.

The Democratic Party out-registered the GOP this year by more than 2 to 1, adding another 1.1 million members to the voter rolls in California. These new Democrats are being counted on by party leaders to help defeat Wilson’s Proposition 165, which not only would sharply pare welfare benefits but give the governor more power to cut spending in a fiscal emergency or a budget deadlock.

The Times Poll found the measure being supported by 62% of the registered Republicans and opposed by 57% of the Democrats. People age 65 and over favored it, but voters in their 20s were opposed. Affluent people supported it, but those on low incomes objected. Anglos leaned in favor, but minorities were against. Small town residents supported it, but city dwellers were opposed.

Voters who approve of Wilson’s job performance back Proposition 165 by 5 to 2, but they represent less than a third of the electorate. The majority who disapprove of his performance oppose the measure by nearly 5 to 3.

Proposition 161, to permit doctor-assisted euthanasia, is supported by liberals and moderates, but opposed by conservatives. Catholics and Protestants both are divided on the issue. People in their 20s support it, but those 65 and older are split.

Proposition 164, the congressional term limits proposal, is supported big by most voter groups--except Democrats. They are closely divided. But three-fourths of Republican voters support it, as do President Bush and much of the GOP establishment.

Proposition 166, requiring companies to provide health insurance, is supported big by Democratic voters. But Republicans and independents are closely divided.

Proposition 167, to raise taxes on many businesses and the wealthy, is supported by Democrats and opposed by Republicans. But most other groups within the electorate are closely split.

THE TIMES POLL: State Issues

Of five propositions measured, only one on congressional term limits has overwhelming voter support. Opinion on the others is closely divided or has yet to crystallize. Statewide, more voters favor Democrats than Republicans for Congress and the Assembly. Proposition 161 /Physician-Assisted Death Initial Impression Before Proposition Was Described: Registered Voters: Favorable: 28% Unfavorable: 27% Vote Against: 45% Prop. 164 / Term Limits Favorable: 50% Unfavorable: 11% Don’t Know: 39% Prop. 165 / Welfare and Budget Changes Favorable: 26% Unfavorable: 21% Don’t Know: 53% Prop. 166 / Health Care Favorable: 19% Unfavorable: 17% Don’t Know: 64% Prop. 167 / State Taxes Favorable: 10% Unfavorable: 17% Don’t Know: 73% *

Voter Preference After Proposition Was Described Proposition 161 /Physician-Assisted Death Registered Voters Vote for: 49% Vote Against: 45% Don’t Know: 6% Prop. 164 / Term Limits Vote for: 61% Vote Against: 28% Don’t Know: 11% Prop. 165 / Welfare and Budget Changes Vote for: 42% Vote Against: 43% Don’t Know: 15% Prop. 166 / Health Care Vote for: 49% Vote Against: 35% Don’t Know: 16% Prop. 167 / State Taxes Vote for: 42% Vote Against: 44% Don’t Know: 14% *

If the elections were being held today, which party would you like to see win this congressional district? Likely voters Democrats: 51% Republicans: 40% Neither: 3% Don’t Know: 6% If the elections were being held today, which party would you like to see win in your Assembly district? Likely voters Democrats: 49% Republicans: 41% Don’t Know: 10%

How Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,110 registered voters statewide, including 833 likely voters, by telephone Oct. 20-23. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points, and among likely voters it is plus or minus four percentage points. Each of the ballot initiative questions was asked of roughly half of the total sample of registered voters. The margin of sampling error for these samples is plus or minus five percentage points.