‘92 POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE : Ripe Year for a Shake-Up in the House : Economic woes, gridlock and the chamber’s own scandals are among forces driving some of the most hotly contested races.

Candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives have been buffeted by so many tumultuous political forces since voters last went to the polls that the turnover when it next convenes is expected to be unusually high.

Going into Tuesday’s election, 86 new members of the 435-member House are assured, largely due to retirements and the defeats of several incumbents in primaries. Political analysts predict that once the votes are counted next week, the result could be the biggest upheaval the House has experienced since 1948, when 118 new members were sent there.

The shake-up reflects three major factors:

--Redistricting, which requires the redrawing of the boundaries of congressional districts after each 10-year national census to account for population changes. An added factor influencing the boundary changes in most states was a concerted effort to meet the requirements of the Voting Rights Act, which resulted in more districts where minorites are in the majority.

--Anti-incumbent feeling, which was fueled by the persistent gridlock between a Republican Administration and a Democratic-controlled Congress, fallout from the Senate’s handling last year of Anita Faye Hill’s sexual harassment charge against then-Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas, and flaps involving the House bank and post office. The sentiment has heightened the vulnerability of incumbents from both parties, prompting many lawmakers to resign and encouraging strong challengers to run against others. In all, 66 House members decided against running for reelection this year--a post-World War II record.

--Continuing economic woes, which polls show have contributed to a general dissatisfaction with Congress among voters. What remains to be seen is whether voters decide to take out their frustration against their specific representative, which has not been the case in recent elections.

Prognosticators predict that overall, the Democratic majority in the House will shrink somewhat, although less than they had forecast during the height of the House bank scandal earlier this year. President Bush’s uphill fight for reelection has dimmed GOP hopes for big gains.

Here is a brief look at House races outside of California that have attracted particular interest from political observers:

ALABAMA: Democrat George C. Wallace Jr. vs. Republican Terry Everett. The son of the onetime segregationist Alabama governor is the favorite to win this contest--thanks, ironically, to heavy support from black voters for the seat held by retiring Republican Rep. William L. Dickinson. Moreover, the younger Wallace is a bona fide liberal. Everett is a self-made millionaire and peanut farmer whose supporters liken to independent presidential candidate Ross Perot. One of his campaign planks is to improve the “negative” image he said he found Alabama has when he toured the country in a mobile home.

ALASKA: Republican incumbent Don Young vs. Democrat John Devens. Young, who has held Alaska’s sole House seat for 19 years, began his reelection bid in deep trouble, partly because his fervent opposition to most environmental measures is less popular in the state than when he began his political career. A new poll showed him gaining strength, but Young remains vulnerable. The race is a rematch--Devens came within 2 percentage points of beating Young in 1990.

GEORGIA: Republican incumbent Newt Gingrich vs. Democrat Tony Center. Gingrich, the House minority whip and enfant terrible of the GOP’s neoconservative wing, looked virtually unbeatable a year ago. But the House bank scandal--in which Gingrich was a visible offender--and the decline in Bush’s popularity have hurt him in the heavily Republican district just outside Atlanta. Although Gingrich is well-financed and is campaigning hard, recent polls have shown Center, a lawyer, closing in on him. Gingrich narrowly escaped defeat once this year when Herman Clark, a little-known GOP state legislator, came within 1,000 votes of beating him in the primary.

IOWA: Democratic incumbent Dave Nagle vs. Republican incumbent Jim Nussle. This race--one of five incumbent-vs.-incumbent elections nationwide that stem from redistricting--could provide a litmus test of how much voters are willing to sacrifice self-interest to restrain government spending. Nagle, a three-term incumbent, is a crusty liberal who champions efforts to channel federal funds for highways and farm research in his home state. Nussle, a conservative GOP freshman, argues that such projects are an example of pork-barrel politics that adds to the deficit. Nussle also gained notoriety when he wore a bag over his head to show his contempt for Congress during the House bank scandal.

MARYLAND: Democratic incumbent Thomas McMillen vs. Republican incumbent Wayne T. Gilchrest. This race is another incumbent-vs.-incumbent battle in which both candidates are running on an anti-incumbent theme. McMillen, a onetime professional basketball player, is painting himself as less of an incumbent than Gilchrest, and has a fatter campaign war chest.

MONTANA: Democratic incumbent Pat Williams vs. Republican incumbent Ron Marlenee. Because Montana lost population during the 1980s, its two House districts were folded into one, and the result is a race offering voters a clear choice. Williams, a born-again New Dealer, and Marlenee, a right-winger who scorns government activism, differ on such issues as family leave, civil rights, capital gains tax cuts and abortion rights.

OHIO: Democratic incumbent Mary Rose Oakar vs. Republican Martin Hoke. Oakar, a 16-year House veteran, won more than 70% of the vote in cruising to reelection in 1990. But that was before the House bank scandal, in which her reputation was tarnished by 213 overdrafts, and the House post office flap, to which she also was linked. As a result, this race has become a prime test of the trade-off between the powers and vulnerabilities of incumbents this year. Hoke is running an aggressive anti-incumbent campaign, routinely branding Oakar as “a poster child” of everything wrong with Congress.

TEXAS: Democratic incumbent Charles Wilson vs. Republican Donna Peterson. Wilson, nicknamed “Good Time Charlie” for his flamboyant style, may see his 20-year House career come to an end, largely because of the bank scandal. He admitted amassing 81 overdrafts, including one for $6,500 that he wrote to pay the Internal Revenue Service. Peterson, a West Point graduate, currently is leading in opinion polls.

WISCONSIN: Democratic incumbent Les Aspin vs. Republican Mark Neumann. Aspin, the brainy, maverick chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, is facing a fierce battle for reelection. Neumann, a wealthy builder, has spent more than $300,000 on television advertisements that blast Aspin for having spent too much time on national issues at the expense of his home district.

ROADBLOCKS TO REELECTION

It has been a stormy two years for House members. Here are some of the problems they’ve faced: START CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING--REARRANGEMENTS BACK HOME

AUGUST ‘90: Armed with 1990 census results, states begin redrawing political districts. The new boundaries imperil dozens of incumbents. Some simply decide to make their current terms their last, others end up facing tough re-nomination contests in this year’s primaries. As a result of redistricting, five Houses races pit a Republican incumbent against a Democratic incumbent.

JANUARY ‘91: The 102nd Congress takes its place, with 268 Democrats, 166 Republicans and one independent in the House. OPERATION DESERT STORM--GOP HOPES SOAR

MARCH ‘91: President Bush’s popularity soars following the U.S. military success in the Persian Gulf War, bolstering GOP hopes that the party will make significant gains in the 1992 congressional election. THE CLARENCE THOMAS HEARINGS--YEAR OF THE WOMAN IS BORN

AUGUST, 1991: Treatment Anita Faye Hill at the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas sets off a wave of frustration among women voters that prompts more women to run for office. HOUSE BANK SCANDAL--THE ANTI-INCUMBENT SENTIMENT INTENSIFIES

SPRING, 1992: House bank scandal begins to hit home politically as voters seize on the abuse of overdraft privileges by some members as a symbol of everything that’s wrong with Congress. HOUSE POST OFFICE SCANDAL--VOTER DISSATISFACTION DEEPENS

SPRING, 1992: News of a drugs-and-corruption scandal involving the House post office appears to deepen the public anti-incumbent mood. THE STUBBORN RECESSION--POISON FOR THE GOP:

SUMMER, 1992: Failure of the recovery to take hold sours voters on the Bush Administration and makes them more eager for a change. GRIDLOCK--SCOURGE OF THE ELECTORATE:

SUMMER, 1992: Voter impatience over the continuing political stalemate between the White House and Congress heightens the vulnerability of incumbents from both parties. VOTER REGISTRATION--IT’S UP SHARPLY, BUT WHAT WILL THE IMPACT BE?

AUTUMN, 1992: Voter registration is up sharply throughout the country and more people are taking an interest in the political campaigns. Still unanswered, however, is what all this will mean on Election Day.

New Opportunities for Women, Minorites

Women

Currently in House: 29

No. of candidates: 106

Blacks

Currently in House: 26

No. of candidates: 45

Latinos

Currently in House: 14

No. of candidates: 30

Sources: Times staff, clerk of the House, AP