NEWS ANALYSIS : Beleaguered Wilson Needs a Winner on Election Day : Politics: His fortunes are riding on Prop. 165 and an Assembly coup by GOP. A victory aids ability to govern.

Gov. Pete Wilson’s precarious political future may be riding on Tuesday’s election, even if his name is nowhere on the ballot.

At a time when the public’s rating of his job performance is the lowest ever recorded for a California governor by the nonpartisan Field Poll, Wilson has gambled and committed himself to four chancy political efforts.

If he can emerge looking like a victor, it will provide a sorely needed boost to his declining political stock and probably enhance his long-term ability to govern in gridlocked Sacramento. But if he should fail on all counts, “the ‘Lord of the Flies’ syndrome will set in,” as one Republican activist put it, and the wounded governor will become even more vulnerable to his enemies.

Wilson has two top priorities on Tuesday. One is Proposition 165, his dual-purpose initiative to cut welfare benefits and give himself more budgeting power. The other priority is the election of enough Republican Assembly candidates to wrest control of the house from Democrats and Speaker Willie Brown. Most public opinion surveys, including one recently by The Times Poll, have shown Proposition 165 to be a tossup. In the battle for the Assembly, Republicans need to gain eight seats, and although Wilson publicly is optimistic, the inside betting is that the GOP will fall short.

The governor also is chairman of President Bush’s California campaign, apparently a losing battle that he fought last spring to command. And he is the principal patron of U.S. Sen. John Seymour, whom he chose as his Senate replacement after being elected governor in 1990. But because Wilson’s ability to help Bush and Seymour has dissipated--because of his own diminished popularity and the two candidates’ faltering races--the governor has been focusing on Proposition 165 and the Assembly contests.

“When any political leader sticks his neck out the way Wilson has, he has to demonstrate some success,” said Mervin Field, director of the statewide poll he founded decades ago. “When you’re active and you’re pressing, you need victories. And if you don’t get them, you demonstrate weakness. You become even more vulnerable. It’s like being a wounded animal.”

“What that would mean,” Field said, “is continued battling in Sacramento. It augurs for more impasse--at a time when California needs some accommodation between the political interests.”

Steven A. Merksamer, who was former Gov. George Deukmejian’s chief of staff and now is a politically active Sacramento attorney, drew an analogy from “Lord of the Flies,” William Golding’s 1955 novel about savagery and survival among boys stranded on an island.

“Politics is a funny business. People like winners. It’s sort of a ‘Lord of the Flies’ mentality. If people see you’re in trouble, they’re more apt to take you on. If you appear to be strong, they’re far less inclined to mess with you,” Merksamer said. “If the governor wins on Tuesday, it clearly strengthens his hand. By the same token, if he loses (Proposition) 165 and the Assembly, that will weaken his hand. In the real world of politics, regrettably but honestly, there’s a lot of ‘Lord of the Flies.’ ”

The consensus of many in politics is that Wilson needs at least one victory on Election Day to avoid being tagged a big loser. Even as partisan a competitor as Bob Mulholland, the bare-knuckled political director of the state Democratic Party, said that if either Proposition 165 passes or the GOP takes control of the Assembly, Wilson “certainly can declare victory and claim he has slain the dragon in Sacramento. He can make that claim all over the country.”

But if the Republican governor loses everything, Mulholland added, “it could be the start of a very good two-year cycle for Democrats”--leading to Wilson’s potential reelection defeat in 1994.

Some assert that the stakes for Wilson are being exaggerated.

“It would be an overstatement to say this election is ‘do or die’ for Pete Wilson,” said Ken Khachigian, a longtime GOP strategist and manager of Bruce Herschensohn’s Senate campaign. “Pete’s got to count on the economy getting better in the next 18 months. That’s what’s ‘do or die’ for him. If he loses on Tuesday, there’ll be a short-term political fallout, but no long-term damage.”

Veteran Republican consultant Sal Russo, who worked in the gubernatorial offices of Deukmejian and Ronald Reagan, said “the most important thing Wilson has at stake” is legislative seats.

Wilson last year earned party points by out-finessing Democrats and maneuvering the decennial redrawing of legislative districts into the state Supreme Court, which adopted a plan favorable to Republicans. This embittered Democrats and severely strained relations with the Legislature. For these efforts to bear fruit, the GOP must substantially increase its numbers. It now holds just 33 of 80 Assembly seats and only 13 of 40 in the Senate.

“Wilson has to make significant gains in the Legislature. He can’t have the next two years be as contentious as the last two, because eventually the public tires of it and wants a change,” Russo said. “His poll numbers are terrible. It’s difficult to turn things around unless you can accomplish things. And to make that happen, you have to work cooperatively with the Legislature.”

Allies and enemies alike contended last spring that Wilson had spread himself too thin with his four-pronged political agenda, the most ambitious of any governor in more than three decades. “He finds fights to get into,” lamented one adviser. “He’s got too much on his plate.” Then came the summer-long budget brawl and Wilson’s popularity plummeted further, crippling his ability to generate voter support for his causes.

The weakened governor has been a huge target for Democrats. “Stop Gov. Wilson’s power grab,” exhorts the campaign against Proposition 165. “Since Pete Wilson appointed his friend John Seymour to the U.S. Senate, California has lost 400,000 more jobs,” claims a hyperbolic Democratic mailer.

In an ironic twist, even Wilson has sought to take advantage of his negative job rating. One popular feature of Proposition 165 is the docking of pay for the governor and legislators if a state budget is not passed on time. So a TV commercial selling the measure runs side-by-side pictures of Wilson and Speaker Brown urging voters: “Send ‘em a message. Hit ‘em where it hurts.”

The governor has raised several million dollars to finance his political agenda, mainly from special interests.

As of Saturday, Wilson reported putting $1.9 million of his own political money into the Proposition 165 campaign. During the general election cycle, he also helped raise $2.2 million for Republican legislative candidates. Of that, $800,000 came from his own kitty. In addition, he earlier raised $1.5 million for the redistricting effort. And he has participated in 11 fund-raising events for Seymour since appointing him.

The governor has been feverishly campaigning and raising money in recent weeks, frequently flying from one end of the state to the other on the same day and getting little sleep. Most of his effort has been on behalf of legislative candidates, brandishing the issue of workers’ compensation reform as his main weapon.

“We’re driving jobs out of this state. The system’s a national disgrace,” the governor declares, imploring: “If they won’t change the law--change the lawmakers.”

But for Wilson, there is more to it than simply changing lawmakers and party control. Tuesday’s election will be closely watched to see what kind of Republicanism winds up dominating the new GOP Assembly caucus--that of the archconservatives who have waged a two-year battle with the governor, or Wilson moderates.

Right now, the governor seems ready to settle for just several more Republicans of any stripe. “It’s a lot easier to work with right-wingers than Democrats,” said one adviser.