STATE SENATE : Dannemeyer, Seymour, Umberg Mentioned for Seat Royce Will Vacate : Observers say the opening could also present an opportunity for GOP Assemblyman Ross Johnson, among others.

With the general election results only hours old, winners and losers of this political season already were being mentioned Wednesday as possible candidates for the state Senate seat now held by Republican Ed Royce, who won a term to Congress in Tuesday’s balloting.

Among the potential Republican candidates most often mentioned for the North County seat are two political casualties of 1992: U.S. Rep. William Dannemeyer of Fullerton, who ran unsuccessfully in the June primary for a U.S. Senate seat, and U.S. Sen. John Seymour, who was defeated Tuesday by former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein.

But local political observers said that next May’s special election to fill the open seat could also create opportunities for other Republicans, such as Assemblyman Ross Johnson of La Habra and Brian Bennett, former chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove).

Republicans Robert Hurtt Jr., whose family owns Container Supply Co. in Garden Grove and who is a contributor to Assembly candidates backed by Christian conservatives, and Santa Ana Mayor Daniel H. Young were mentioned less often as possible candidates.

Democrats, meanwhile, mentioned Assemblyman Tom Umberg of Garden Grove as their best hope of capturing an Orange County Senate seat. Umberg, who defeated Republican challenger Jo Ellen Allen with 59.8% of the vote, is the only Democrat elected locally to either state or federal office.

“My hope is that Tom will take a very serious look at it. And if he decides to run, the entire party will unite behind him,” said Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Howard Adler. “And I think he would have the first crack at it.”

But Republican leaders said Democrats should not count on winning the seat that Royce will vacate when he takes office in Congress in January, even though the two parties are almost equally matched in voter registration in the Senate district.

“The Democrats in this district are conservative Democrats,” said Royce, who was first elected to the state Senate 10 years ago in a district that, at that time, had only a 35.9% Republican voter registration. “This is a tough place for a Democrat to soldier.”

Because Royce will be vacating his seat in the middle of his four-year term, candidates in a special March primary election would run within the boundaries of the district that elected him in 1990, before redistricting--a district with Republican registration of 44.7%, compared to 43.7% for the Democrats.

When the balance of Royce’s term expires in two years, candidates will run in the newly drawn district, which encompasses additional pockets of Democratic voters and includes 46.3% Democrats, compared to 42.1% Republicans.

“I think a Democrat could win that seat, and I would expect that, (given) the . . . Clinton election, Tom Umberg’s election and the voter registration drive we ran in the summer,” said Adler, referring to the recent registration of 13,000 new Democrats in the area.

But Orange County Republican Chairman Thomas Fuentes said his party has a more solid history of winning special elections, which require greater organization.

And given that Umberg is Orange County’s only Democrat in the state Assembly, Fuentes argued that Assembly Speaker Willie Brown “has so much invested in Umberg--Umberg is so beholden to Willie for money, both for this race and the last one--that with that size investment from Willie Brown, I don’t know that Willie would allow him to run for that (state Senate) race.”

Umberg was unavailable for comment, but an aide acknowledged that even under the current district lines, Umberg had at one time or another represented about three-fourths of the area.

Dannemeyer, meanwhile, has been considering the race since his defeat in the June primary, but said Wednesday that he will announce his decision “whenever the time is appropriate.”

Seymour, who served in the state Senate for nine years before being appointed by Gov. Pete Wilson to complete Wilson’s U.S. Senate term, was unavailable for comment Wednesday. An aide said there had been little discussion about Seymour’s near-term plans.

But Fuentes said it was plausible for either Dannemeyer or Seymour to want to return to the Legislature.

“In the California state Senate you are one of 40, versus one of 100 in the U.S. Senate or one of 435 in the U.S. Congress,” Fuentes said. “So it’s a position of great influence and prestige.”