Speaking Of: : Numbers We Live By : Trends That Are Shaping the World’s Future

Too many people. Too much pollution. Too much waste.

There are many ways to assess the state of the world--and too many of them seem to be coming up negative.

But not all of them.

A new study by Worldwatch Institute, a Washington-based environmental research organization, looks at key global measures of economic, agricultural, military and social trends over the last two generations. It uncovers some good news--and some bad.

A rapidly shrinking global nuclear arsenal and large decreases in military spending may make much-needed capital available for programs such as family planning and reforestation, as well as making our world safer, for example. Major reductions in the production of ozone-destroying chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) underline the potential of international cooperation to solve global environmental challenges.

Meanwhile, a reduction in the global fish catch and a flattening in international grain and soybean production--all in the face of a continually increasing population--may lead to a further decline in the living standards of the world’s poor and already undernourished.

“We know that global environmental trends over the last few decades have not been favorable,” Worldwatch President Lester R. Brown said. “There are, however, some positive trends beginning to emerge. We need to be aware of these and to build on them, eventually achieving a momentum that will reverse the degradation and set the world on a sustainable path.”

The Good News ... Military Spending Down World military expenditures were estimated at $934 billion in 1990, down nearly 9% from a peak of more than $1 trillion in 1987. Figures for 1991 should show a 6% drop. Global Nuclear Arsenal, 1950-1991 The world’s nuclear arsenal peaked in 1988 and is still falling sharply. But no country plans to abolish nuclear weapons, and there are still enough to annihilate life on earth. CFC Production Falling Fast An international campaign to save the Earth’s protective ozone layer has resulted in a 46% decline in CFC production since 1988. But long-lived CFCs will pose a threat for decades. Bicycles Outpace Autos They don’t pollute and they create far less congestion. So it’s good news that rising production means there are now nearly twice as many bicycles on the roads as there are automobiles. Cigarette Smoking Losing Favor Reduced smoking in industrial societies is offsetting the growing popularity of cigarettes in some developing countries. U.S. per capita cigarette consumption is down 38% since 1963.

The Bad News ... Grain Harvest Drops The 1991 world grain harvest dropped by a record 84 million tons from the 1990 figure. While bad weather is largely to blame, the historical expansion of cropland has also ended. Fish Catch Falls Some biologists believe the 1990 drop in the world fish catch may signal trouble for nations such as Japan and Norway that depend on fish for much of their protein. Slowing Soybean Production Production of soybeans--the world’s leading protein crop--is still rising, but not as fast as it has. Now it is barely keeping up with population increases--a sign of possible trouble ahead. Source: Vital Signs 1992--Worldwatch Institute