Nixon Opposing U.S.-Vietnam Normalization : Policy: He could influence any move by Bush Administration to end trade embargo.

As the Bush Administration considers lifting the U.S. trade embargo against Vietnam, former President Richard M. Nixon is quietly trying to head off the idea, declaring that any normalization of relations with Hanoi would be “a tragic mistake.”

In a memo to the Senate Committee on POW-MIA Affairs, dated Dec. 30 and not yet made public, Nixon, who paved the way to full normal relations with China, argued that similar steps toward Vietnam should be held up, in part because of Hanoi’s repressive policies toward America’s old allies in southern Vietnam. He also cited Vietnam’s failure to turn over all the information it has on POWs.

“Until Hanoi not only fully accounts for the MIAs but also ceases its brutal treatment of those who were aligned with the U.S. during the war, and until North Vietnam complies with the other terms of the Paris Peace Accords, it would be a diplomatic travesty and a human tragedy to go forward with normalization,” Nixon said.

His memo was submitted in response to a series of questions from the Senate committee.

Nixon’s opposition, as well as other recent developments, has dimmed prospects that President Bush will lift the 17-year-old trade embargo before leaving office in 11 days, observers said.

During his inaugural address four years ago, Bush told the nation that “the statute of limitations has been reached” on the American divisions over Vietnam, and that “no great nation can long afford to be sundered by a memory.” Now, Bush is awaiting last-minute steps from Hanoi, such as a turnover of remains of MIAs, that might let him act.

Nixon’s written statement provides the strongest evidence so far that he and officials of his former Administration constitute a powerful and determined, though largely hidden, lobby against normalization of relations.

His views could carry considerable weight with the Bush Administration, particularly because Bush’s top two foreign-policy officials, National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft and Secretary of State Lawrence S. Eagleburger, worked on Vietnam policy in Nixon’s White House.

An Administration official said he did not know whether Nixon has talked to top White House officials but said, “I’m sure they know his point of view.” The official said Nixon’s former secretary of state, Henry A. Kissinger, has made clear his own vehement opposition to U.S. normalization with Vietnam.

Many analysts have theorized that it would be easier for Bush to normalize ties with Vietnam than it would be for President-elect Bill Clinton after he takes office, because of the controversies during the 1992 campaign over Clinton’s efforts to avoid being drafted during the Vietnam War and his participation in anti-war protests.

Clinton’s newly appointed national security adviser, Anthony Lake, along with Eagleburger and Scowcroft, worked on Nixon’s Security Council staff. But Lake resigned in protest against Nixon’s Vietnam policies after the 1970 incursion into Cambodia.

The strongest public opposition to U.S. normalization with Vietnam comes from groups representing families of missing American servicemen.

Some political leaders, including Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.), also have argued that the United States should wait until Vietnam’s government is more democratic. But U.S. business groups and some foreign-policy organizations are strongly in favor of normalization.

Nixon’s opposition “is really a case of still fighting the war,” Stanley Karnow, author of one of the authoritative histories of the Vietnam War, said Friday. Speaking of Nixon’s complaints about Vietnam’s repressive policies in the south, Karnow said, “A lot of that is true, but of course, that sort of thing didn’t stop Nixon from flying to Beijing and normalizing relations with China in 1972, in the midst of the Cultural Revolution.”

Nixon’s visit ended years of hostility and launched the rapprochement between the United States and China. Formal diplomatic relations were established under President Jimmy Carter on Jan. 1, 1979.

The Bush Administration mounted an intensive effort last fall to proceed as far as possible toward normalization with Vietnam after officials in Hanoi released about 4,800 photos of missing Americans and promised to open its official archives to U.S. researchers.

Last month, the Administration cleared the way for American companies to sign contracts and open offices in Vietnam, the first major U.S. moves toward restoring business links between the two countries.

At that time, an Administration official predicted that “if Hanoi responds, this is certainly not the last step” the Bush White House would take toward Vietnam before Bush leaves office. Some Administration officials are convinced that Vietnam is holding back the remains of missing American servicemen and could release them whenever it chooses.

But on Friday, Administration officials said that since then, there have been no further moves by Vietnam toward releasing remains of American servicemen or significant information about them.

Asked Friday what the chances are that in its dying days the Bush Administration will lift the trade embargo, one senior Administration official replied, “The signs I see are negative.”

He noted that Vietnam has not provided further help on American MIAs and that Hanoi recently leased to an Australian firm an offshore oil tract that Vietnamese officials once said they would set aside for American companies.

Virginia Foote of the U.S.-Vietnam Trade Council, who voiced optimism last month that the trade embargo would be lifted before Bush leaves office, said Friday, “I don’t think anything more is going to happen.”