‘This Will Hurt Arsenio’

The biggest loser in the Jay Leno-David Letterman war may be Arsenio Hall.

Hall’s ratings are already down 20% compared to last year, and now his lineup of stations is in jeopardy--not only on CBS outlets that may opt for Letterman, but also on Fox affiliates that are expected to dump or delay him come fall for a new late-night show starring Chevy Chase.

“This will hurt Arsenio,” said Dick Kurlander, programming vice president for Petry Television, which consults on programming for a group of 115 TV stations nationwide. “His numbers have eroded under the current competitive environment. So when you have a combination of Chevy Chase and David Letterman against you, it can do nothing but fractionalize everybody.”

Of the 178 TV stations across the country that are now airing “Arsenio Hall” under multiyear contracts, 72 of them are Fox affiliates and 44 are CBS affiliates. In preparation for the arrival of Chase, Paramount Domestic Television has for some time been moving Hall’s show over to more established CBS and ABC stations as the contracts with Fox stations lapsed.

But now Paramount is being squeezed even further because CBS is pushing for all of its affiliate stations to air Letterman at 11:30 p.m., when many of them now air “Arsenio Hall.” His show may be dropped or pushed to a later time slot, where the potential audience is smaller.

Hall and Paramount executives could not be reached for official comment Wednesday. But one Paramount source who asked not to be identified said that both CBS and Fox stations will have to pay Paramount a penalty if they push back the agreed-upon air time of Hall before their contracts run out.

“Lots of CBS affiliates are in long-term contracts,” the official said. “If a CBS station is carrying Arsenio and wants to air it later in the night, we have pay-or-play contracts and they will have to pay Paramount for the damage.”

CBS executives have suggested they might be willing to pick up at least some of the tab in such instances. But in any case, those contracts will only protect Hall’s time periods for so long. As they run out, network affiliates can either let the show go or renew it for a later time period.

John Rohr, programming vice president for Blair Communications, which consults for 140 independent stations, said that the addition of Letterman to CBS could be tough on both Hall and CBS affiliates.

“Certainly for Arsenio,” he said, “because Paramount was hoping that in a way the move of Arsenio from Fox affiliates to the more traditional network affiliates could be the cloud with a silver lining--because Arsenio has been declining fairly steadily in ratings. By moving to traditionally stronger stations, they had an opportunity to halt that decline.”

As for the CBS affiliates, Rohr said, “they have to be in a quandary. Because CBS affiliates have been literally crying for years to CBS to get in the late-night hunt. Now that CBS has anted up with a bona-fide contender--and we’re not talking about a Pat Sajak here--it’s up to the CBS affiliates to either put up or shut up, even though many of them are making money on other (syndicated) programming.”

The initial reaction from CBS stations appears to be mixed.

“We’re very pleased to have David Letterman,” said Ron Bergamo, vice president and general manager of KTSP-TV in Phoenix, Ariz. “CBS has always been second or third in that time period, and they need an anchor, a rock--a stable, well-known personality who’s going to be long-term in the time period. And we think we can win big with David Letterman.”

On the other hand, one general manager of a station in a Top 50 market, who asked not to be identified, seemed less sure. His station is currently airing “Arsenio Hall” at 11 p.m., and he is in doubt whether to give it up for Letterman.

“We carried Pat Sajak (CBS’ last attempt at a late-night talk show), and we stuck with him all the way through to the bitter end,” he said. “I finally just had to do something else. We were offered Arsenio, and the show does well for us.

“Dollar-wise, I don’t think it would be a good investment to take Letterman. Of course, I don’t know what the format is yet, or what CBS will be offering.”

The long-term question is, how much chatter will the late-night market be able to bear? In addition to Letterman, Leno, Hall and Chase, Rush Limbaugh has carved out solid ratings in late-night this season, and ABC’s top-rated “Nightline,” anchored by Ted Koppel, also falls into that time period.

“What I would be concerned with if I was any one of those people now is the fragmentation,” said Wayne Lepoff, president of Genesis Entertainment, which syndicates another late-night talker, “The Whoopi Goldberg Show.”

“I believe every one of those hosts are excellent at what they do,” Lepoff said. “All of the shows, interestingly enough, have a chance of working. The question is: Will there be too much fragmentation? You’re looking at four big names, with Letterman, Leno, Arsenio and Chevy Chase.”

There have been suggestions that the clutter in the 11:30 p.m. time slot will help raise the stock of programs that air at 12:30 a.m. or later, the period Letterman will vacate.

“Whoopi Goldberg” airs almost exclusively after midnight, as does “Rush Limbaugh” in a large number of markets.

“I don’t see Letterman impacting us at all,” said Dick Mincer, senior producer of “Limbaugh.” “My guess is that Letterman, Leno and Arsenio, because they tend to be the same kind of programs--i.e., talk/entertainment--will just fragment that particular audience a little bit more.”

As part of Letterman’s reported deal with CBS, he will develop a new series for 12:30 a.m., and sources said that NBC was going after Dana Carvey to replace Letterman there. But incumbent competitors feel that they will have the edge in that late-late-night arena.

“It could help us,” said Lepoff, who renewed “Whoopi Goldberg” for next year despite low ratings. “The biggest competition we have is David Letterman. With him out of the way, it opens up the 12:30 a.m. time period. Because anything that goes in there now will be a new show, so it will be more wide open.”

The upcoming Chase talk show, which is scheduled to debut this fall on Fox, will not be affected by the Letterman move, network officials said Wednesday.

A Fox spokeswoman vowed that Chase’s show would air in most markets at 11 p.m., “which gives us a half-hour jump.” And she said that as part of their contract renewal agreements with Fox, the affiliates carrying Hall’s show will be required to air Chase at 11 p.m.