THE TIMES POLL : Woo Far Ahead of the Pack in Mayor’s Race

Drawing broad support from African-Americans, Latinos and Anglo liberals, City Councilman Michael Woo has moved well ahead of the field in the Los Angeles mayor’s race, while the rest of the pack tries to fight its way out of political obscurity.

If present trends continue until the April 20 primary, the race for mayor could turn into a contest for second place, with several contenders battling one another for the opportunity to face Woo in a June runoff.

A Los Angeles Times poll, conducted from Jan. 28 through Feb. 2, found Woo leading the rest, with support from 20% of the voters in the survey. His closest competitor, veteran City Councilman Joel Wachs, drew just 8% and City Councilman Nate Holden, the best-known black candidate in the race, received 6%. The two candidates expected to give Woo his toughest competition, businessman Richard Riordan and San Fernando Valley Assemblyman Richard Katz, trailed badly--Riordan had 4% and Katz 3%.

In a field of 52 candidates, only a few others registered any support.

However, the poll found that 42% of the city’s voters are undecided--a clear sign that a lot of people haven’t begun to think about the election. In particular, the majority of voters who describe themselves as moderates or conservatives have yet to coalesce around any one candidate.

Conducted by Times Poll director John Brennan, the survey interviewed 1,618 L.A. residents, including 1,149 registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction.

Although Woo is the only candidate with a significant following, his lead is by no means insurmountable. Support for him is broad but shallow. Only one in five of Woo’s supporters said they would definitely vote for him. Among Anglos, still the city’s largest voting bloc, slightly more people are opposed to Woo than are for him. And among elderly voters, another crucial segment of the electorate, Woo is less popular.

None of the other candidates have caught on with many voters, but it is not because they are not talking about the issues that matter most to the electorate. The poll found that crime, the economy and education--the issues that have dominated the campaign--are voters’ principal concerns.

But despite the anxiety over crime, there is not yet enough support among voters to approve an April ballot measure that would raise property taxes to pay for 1,000 extra city police officers. Although 61% of the voters said they would back the measure, that falls short of the required two-thirds majority.

The poll revealed continuing public pessimism about the state of the city, with nearly 70% saying they did not think things were going well. On the other hand, voters made it clear they did not think the city was ungovernable. A substantial majority of voters believe that the mayor has the power to make things better.

At the same time, most voters want to limit terms of city officials; 70% said they would be willing to vote for a proposal on the April ballot that would restrict the tenure of elected city officials to two terms.

On the volatile issue of breaking up the Los Angeles Unified School District, 48% of those polled were in favor of letting San Fernando Valley schools secede, with 37% against. The bulk of the support for the breakaway came from Anglo residents of the Westside and the Valley.

The enthusiasm for Woo among minorities, and particularly among African-Americans, defies political prognosticators who warned that the city had become too racially divided for a candidate to assemble the kind of multiethnic coalition that brought Mayor Tom Bradley to power 20 years ago. The impressive level of support for Woo among black voters--34% say they are for him--also discredits the idea that African-Americans will not vote for an Asian-American. Since last summer, Woo has been campaigning tirelessly at inner-city churches and community centers, constantly reminding people that he was the first member of the City Council to get behind Bradley’s effort to oust former Police Chief Daryl F. Gates after the 1991 police beating of Rodney G. King. In addition, more than any other candidate, Woo, 41, has developed a detailed package of economic incentives for South-Central Los Angeles.

“He’s the only councilman who kept trying to get the problem out of the LAPD, which to me was the chief of police,” said Herbert Carter, a retired factory worker and South-Central Los Angeles resident who responded to the poll.

“At the risk of sounding prejudiced, I think Woo has more of a grip on what it is like to be a person of color,” said Joey Almeida, an administrative assistant at a local nonprofit agency. As for the other non-Anglo candidates, Almeida said, they “lack the political expertise and the clout that Woo has.”

The son of Chinese immigrants, Woo has considerably more voter support right now in the African-American community than do either of the prominent black candidates in the race, Holden and lawyer Stan Sanders. Similarly, Woo is doing much better among Latino voters than either of the two best-known Latino candidates, Julian Nava, a college history professor and former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, and Linda Griego, a businesswoman and former deputy mayor for economic development.

Although Woo has been campaigning as the candidate best equipped to reunite what he frequently describes as a segregated city, the poll provides evidence that racial and geographic divisions may not be as sharp as people think.

Only 12% of the voters said it was important for the mayor to come from their own ethnic group. And less than a quarter thought it mattered that the mayor come from their part of town. By a margin of 55% to 31%, residents felt that the best way for minorities to get ahead is through making coalitions with other ethnic groups rather than going it alone. A majority of blacks and Latinos polled agreed with that sentiment.

The poll also revealed broad sympathy with the needs of minority residents. A little more than 60% of the people responding to the poll, including a slim majority of Anglos interviewed, said that city government has not paid enough attention to blacks, Latinos and other minority groups.

Nevertheless, the ingredients for a polarized election exist, especially for a divisive runoff that could pit a majority of non-Anglo voters against much of the Anglo electorate.

For example, a runoff involving Woo could turn into a bitter contest if his opposition among Anglo voters remains as strong. On the city’s Westside and in the Valley, where the majority of Anglo voters live, Woo has as many opponents as supporters. The poll found that 89% of the voters have heard of Woo, giving him higher name recognition than any other candidate. Overall, 32% of city voters are inclined to support Woo, and 25% are not inclined to back him.

In the primary, those “no” votes are less likely to hurt Woo because they probably will be spread among several opponents. But in a runoff, where there is just one opponent, they could count heavily against him.

“I don’t like Michael Woo,” said another poll respondent, Cyd Dunn, a housewife and community volunteer who lives in the Wilshire district. “He attaches himself to inflammatory issues and inflames them more. He is a grandstander eager for power.”

James Teague, a high school teacher from the Valley, expressed a similar view.

“I didn’t like Woo’s stand on Daryl Gates,” Teague said. “I think he gave the guy the shaft as far as trying to dump him without due process. It was political grandstanding.”

Chasing Woo, Councilmen Wachs and Holden are both looking to portions of Woo’s base for their support. Wachs scores highest in the poll with Anglo liberals, although he does not do nearly as well with that group as Woo. And Wachs’ support in the Valley, his council base for 20 years, is stronger than Woo’s. Wachs is not nearly as well known by voters as Woo. However, he has inspired less opposition.

According to the poll, Holden is almost as well known as Woo, but two out of five voters surveyed said they are inclined to vote against him. Although he has vigorously denied them, accusations of sexual harassment by several of the councilman’s female former staff members are being taken seriously by a number of people. The poll found that 82% of the voters were aware of the charges and that 41% are less likely to vote for him because of them.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the poll is the failure of Katz and Riordan, who have been widely touted as front-runners, to make much headway in the race.

After 12 years representing an ethnically diverse San Fernando Valley Assembly district, Katz was recognized by only 53% of the voters citywide and 69% in the Valley. Moreover, only 4% of Valley voters said they will vote for him.

After lending his name and $450,000 of his money to a six-month campaign promoting term limits, Riordan is known to 51% of the voters. An enormously successful venture capitalist who has devoted millions of dollars to inner-city education, Riordan has invited comparisons with Ross Perot. But a campaign pledging to get tough on crime and government bureaucrats has won him the support of just 9% of conservative voters and 11% of Republican voters.

Another candidate, former Deputy Mayor Tom Houston, who sparked public debate with his campaign rhetoric about the problems caused by illegal immigrants, has failed to catch on as a candidate. About one-fourth of the voters say they have heard of him and only 3% say they expect to vote for him.

Ironically, poll results suggest that many voters might be receptive to a candidate like Houston, who takes a hard look at the costs of immigration. Fifty percent of those surveyed agreed with the proposition, “Much of the crime and street violence is caused by illegal immigrants.” And 53% endorsed Houston’s proposal to allow local police to assist federal immigration agents in the identification of suspected illegal aliens.

But the poll results also show that not many people, only 3%, think that the issue of immigration should be a top priority for the next mayor.

Times staff writer Shawn Hubler contributed to this story.

THE TIMES POLL: Who’s Ahead in Mayor’s Race

In a field of 52 candidates for mayor of Los Angeles, 11 have been seen as potential front-runners because they have held a substantial elective or appointed office. Here is how those 11 fared among registered voters, ranked in order of name recognition.

INCLINED INCLINED RECOGNIZED TO VOTE TO VOTE NOT CANDIDATE THE NAME FOR AGAINST SURE Michael K. Woo, councilman 89% 32% 25% 32% Nate Holden, councilman 84% 14% 41% 29% Joel Wachs, councilman 71% 21% 19% 31% Ernani Bernardi, councilman 65% 11% 21% 33% Richard D. Katz, assemblyman 53% 10% 11% 32% Richard Riordan, businessman 51% 8% 11% 32% Julian Nava, educator 45% 9% 15% 21% Linda Griego, deputy mayor 43% 4% 8% 31% Tom Houston, environmental atty. 27% 3% 7% 17% Nick Patsaouras, businessman 21% 2% 6% 13% J. Stanley Sanders, businessman 14% 2% 3% 9%

FIRST CANDIDATE CHOICE Michael K. Woo, councilman 20% Nate Holden, councilman 6% Joel Wachs, councilman 8% Ernani Bernardi, councilman 2% Richard D. Katz, assemblyman 3% Richard Riordan, businessman 4% Julian Nava, educator 2% Linda Griego, deputy mayor 2% Tom Houston, environmental atty. 2% Nick Patsaouras, businessman -- J. Stanley Sanders, businessman 1%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of the city of Los Angeles, Jan. 28-Feb. 2, of 1,149 registered voters.

The Public’s Priorities

What issue or problem do you think should be the next mayor’s top priority? (Up to two answers accepted; top responses listed.)

ISSUE PERCENTAGE Crime/gangs/violence 34 Economy in general 24 Unemployment 17 Schools/education 16 Race relations 8 Homelessness 5 Drugs 4 Not enough police 4 Rebuilding infrastructure 4 Rebuilding from riots 4 Illegal aliens 3 Lack of community 3 Helping business 3 Graffiti 3 Police brutality 3

Source: Times Poll of the city of L.A. of 1,618 adults.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,618 Los Angeles adults, including 1,149 registered voters, by telephone between Jan. 28 and Feb. 2. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, geography and household size. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as the wording of questions and the order in which questions are presented.