THE TIMES POLL : Clinton Economic Plan Supported by Majority

President Clinton appears to have decisively won the first round of public debate over his economic plan, with broad majorities supporting it and approving both its overall fairness and most of its principal elements, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.

A 60%-to-26% majority supports Clinton’s plan. But that margin could shrink as opponents in Congress begin to focus on details of the package, particularly since only 35% of those surveyed say they already know a “great deal” or a “good amount” about it.

The poll, which surveyed 1,273 adults by telephone on Thursday and Friday, found surprisingly few major points of vulnerability for Clinton.

Those surveyed raised doubts about whether the taxes Clinton proposes will actually go to reduce the deficit. And although they expect the plan will improve the economy, only a minority expect their own families to be helped.

But of the principal elements of the plan, only one lacks majority support: the proposal to increase taxes on Social Security benefits for retirees with incomes over $32,000. Those surveyed oppose that idea, 53% to 44%. Opposition to the Social Security tax plan is strongest among baby boom and middle-aged Americans, with those over 65 splitting almost evenly, 45% for it and 49% opposed.

The Social Security tax is “the hardest sell,” said Clinton political adviser Paul Begala. Although only about 25% of retirees have incomes high enough to be affected by the tax increase, “$32,000 just doesn’t sound like a lot of money,” Begala said.

Despite criticism by Republicans that Clinton’s plan has too few cuts in government spending, those polled, by a margin of 54% to 35%, say they believe the spending cuts “amount to a serious program for real cuts in government spending.”

Only 13% believe their own taxes will go up “a great deal,” the poll found, while 62% say they are “willing to accept the tax increases and spending cuts” that will affect them, and by 66%-27%, those surveyed believe the plan, overall, to be “fair.”

The survey also shows Americans strongly rejecting GOP arguments that Clinton’s proposed $31-billion economic stimulus package is unnecessary. The stimulus package wins overwhelming support, 81%-16%, in part because most people--65%-30%--believe the country is still in recession. Indeed, despite economists’ assertions that the recession ended nearly a year ago, 25% still believe the country is in a “serious recession.”

The poll, supervised by Times Poll director John Brennan, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The degree of support Clinton has achieved for a plan that calls on voters to pay higher taxes is “a remarkable political accomplishment,” Brennan said.

Interviews with poll respondents who agreed in advance to talk to a reporter showed many people accepting Clinton’s basic argument that sticking with the status quo would be more costly than accepting his plan. But they also were wary about the willingness of Congress actually to use the new taxes Clinton has asked for to reduce the deficit.

“I’m mildly in favor of Clinton’s plan because at least he’s doing something, where Bush was just sitting back and doing nothing,” said George Marshall, a 31-year-old mechanical engineer from Stillwater, N.Y., who voted for Ross Perot in November.

“What I’m afraid of is he’s going to back into the old Democratic tax-and-spend routine,” Marshall said, but “you’ve got to give the guy a little bit of credit up front.” Republicans, he warned, “can’t get Congress into a deadlock over this. There has to be some give.”

Therese Kish, a 36-year-old mother of three from Twinsburg, Ohio, and a Republican, said she is certain her taxes will go up under Clinton’s plan, and she resents the idea of paying more while the government continues to waste money. But, she said, getting all the waste out “is probably an impossible task, and I know the deficit has to come down.”

“I feel good about Clinton, even though he’s a Democrat,” she said. “I was happy to see he was jumping right in to get things done.”

Clinton’s plan to raise income taxes for families with gross incomes over $180,000 per year also received overwhelming support in the poll, 82%-15%.

When asked what income makes someone “rich,” 53% gave answers of $200,000 or less. Not surprisingly, wealthier people believe the threshold for “rich” should be higher. Among respondents who earn $30,000 to $60,000, 61% believe anyone earning $200,000 should be considered “rich.”

The proposed new tax on energy also wins support, 56%-41%, with approval coming fairly uniformly from all regions of the country.

Clinton’s plan receives strong support both from those who voted Democratic in November and from supporters of Ross Perot. Clinton’s own voters approve his plan by an 87%-6% margin, while Perot voters support the plan 61%-24%.

Those who say they voted for George Bush in November oppose the plan 31%-55%. Clinton’s plan receives majority support across major categories of income and age groups.

Asked how best to describe Clinton’s plan, 50% called it a “bold, innovative approach” to solving national problems. Thirty-five percent said it was “a return to tax-and-spend policies” of the past--the main charge leveled against the plan by Republicans.

Perhaps in part because Clinton has announced a plan, the percentage of Americans with a positive view of the country’s prospects has jumped in the last month. Americans are now evenly divided, 45%-45%, on whether the nation is going in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track”--the most positive reading since just after the end of the Persian Gulf War. Last month, The Times Poll found Americans more pessimistic on that question, 53%-36%.

By contrast, when Bush announced his plan to raise taxes in October, 1990, that measure of public sentiment turned sharply pessimistic.

Overall, Clinton received a favorable rating of 63%-25%, virtually the same as a poll taken just before his inauguration. Asked to rate Clinton’s job performance, poll respondents approved, 58%-28%.

White House aides say their own polls indicate that Clinton’s popularity is rising after taking a sharp plunge in the first two weeks of his Administration, when voters perceived him as concentrating mostly on issues such as gays in the military, where he lacks majority support.

By a 53%-40% margin, The Times Poll shows respondents opposed to “allowing openly homosexual men and women to serve” in the armed forces--a finding that is consistent with other recent news media polls.

“If you put it in the context of any chief executive who ever appeared before a legislative body and asked for higher taxes, the fact that his support is increasing is astonishing,” said Clinton’s pollster, Stanley B. Greenburg.

Clinton clearly has benefited by talking about what Americans continue to see as the biggest problems facing the country. In the current poll, 41% of those surveyed identified unemployment as the nation’s biggest economic problem, while 28% pointed to the deficit. Only 7% said the biggest economic problem was that taxes are too high, while 14% cited government waste.

The favorable poll numbers, reflected also in three other news media polls released over the weekend, cap a highly successful four-day period for the President that began with the announcement of his economic plan in a speech to a joint session of Congress Wednesday.

Thursday, Clinton opened a campaign-style swing across the country that allowed him to dominate public debate. Friday he won the crucial support of Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan. (Clinton is due in California today, with stops in Santa Monica and San Jose.)

By week’s end, congressional Republicans had not yet succeeded in devising a strategy for opposition to his plan. They remained divided between those who would like to offer an alternative plan and those who advocate merely stalling for time in hopes that Clinton’s support among congressional Democrats will crack.

The poll indicates that at least for now, congressional Republicans face a difficult path in opposing Clinton’s plan. Asked whether the President or the Republicans had “better ideas for how to solve the economic problems the country faces,” those surveyed favored Clinton, 56%-24%.

Doing nothing--or trying to block Clinton’s plan with delaying tactics--could also prove costly, given voters’ impatience with “business as usual.”

“They have to come up with an alternative, definitely,” Bernard Hellebrand, a 63-year-old plant manager from New Jersey, said of the GOP. Hellebrand strongly opposes Clinton’s plan because of its new taxes but agrees with the President’s argument that the status quo must be changed.

“Somebody has to come up with an idea to get people back to working,” he said.

Many Americans also appear to be accepting Clinton’s claims for honesty, with 50% saying his numbers are more honest than President Bush’s were, while 12% say Clinton’s figures were less honest and 31% see no difference.

The poll does indicate two other potential weak spots for Clinton. By 48%-42%, Americans believe the new taxes Clinton has asked for will go “mostly toward increased spending” rather than toward reducing the deficit, reflecting the enduring skepticism of voters about the government’s ability to rein in its spending habits.

Even among those who believe the money will go toward spending, however, 40% still believe Clinton’s plan should be enacted. “Things are so bad now for a lot of people that how could they get worse?” asked Peggy Admirand, a 38-year-old small-business woman from Redding, Conn. Admirand says she supports Clinton’s plan even though she is skeptical about how much the deficit will go down.

“Any change is better than no change at all,” Admirand said.

Clinton has tried to neutralize that worry by insisting repeatedly in the last few days that he will not approve the tax increases unless Congress also cuts spending.

A second potential weak spot for Clinton is that while 72% said they expect Clinton’s plan to be at least somewhat effective in improving the economy, most people do not yet appear to connect that overall improvement with changes for the better in their own lives. Asked if they expected the plan to “help you and your immediate family,” only 35% said they expected “a lot” or “some” help, while 26% expect “a little” help and 36% none at all.

At the same time, the 72% saying Clinton’s plan would be effective in helping the economy is far higher than the rating for the plan Bush unveiled in February of last year. At that time, only 58% believed Bush’s plan would be effective.

THE TIMES POLL: Americans Receptive to Clinton Program Americans appear willing to accept the Clinton program despite doubts over whether it will help them directly, according to a Times Poll taken after his speech. MOST BELIEVE THE PROGRAM IS FAIR . . . Very fair: 18% Mostly fair: 48% Mostly unfair: 17% Very unfair: 9% Don’t know: 8% *BUT DOUBT WHETHER THEY’LL BE HELPED . . . How much do you think the President’s proposals will help you and your immediate family? A lot: 6% Some: 29% A little: 26% Not at all: 36% Don’t know: 3% *AND ARE SPLIT OVER WHERE MONEY WILL GO If passed, do you think the increased taxes will end up going mostly toward significant reductions in the deficit or mostly toward more government spending? Deficit: 42% Spending: 48% Don’t know: 10% *UNEMPLOYMENT, DEFICIT CITED AS TOP PROBLEMS What is the biggest economic problem facing the nation?* Unemployment: 41% Deficit: 28% Health care: 16% Wasteful gov’t spending: 14% High taxes: 7% * Five items mentioned the most. Up to two responses accepted. *MOST PUT ‘RICH’ INCOME AT $200,000 OR LESS How much annual income do you think a married couple has to have in this country for you to consider them “rich?” $75,000 or less: 10% $75,001 to $100,000: 10% $100,001 to $200,000: 33% $200,001 to $350,000: 21% More than $350,000: 14% *PUBLIC OPTIMISM IS ON THE RISE Do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

Feb. ’93 Jan. ’93 July ’92 March ’91 Right direction 45% 36% 19% 55% Wrong track 45% 53% 74% 34% Don’t know 10% 11% 7% 11%

*How this poll was conducted: The Times Poll interviewed 1,273 adults nationwide, by telephone Feb. 18-19. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the country. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL: How Age, Income Affect Support for the Plan Here is how various population groups say they feel about Clinton’s economic program.

Approve Disapprove Don’t know All Americans 60% 26% 14% HOUSEHOLD INCOME Less than $30,000 57% 24% 19% $30,000 to $60,000 60% 25% 15% More than $60,000 63% 32% 5% AGE 18 to 29 years old 61% 24% 15% 30 to 44 60% 23% 17% 45 to 64 54% 33% 13% 65 and older 65% 26% 9% PARTY Democrats 79% 9% 12% Republicans 38% 48% 14% Independents 61% 29% 10% PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN NOVEMBER Clinton voters 87% 6% 7% Bush voters 31% 55% 14% Perot voters 61% 24% 15%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,273 adults nationwide, conducted by telephone Feb. 18-19. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.