Wilson Had No Way to Go but Up

When California’s political gurus someday look back on this past weekend, they may see it as the point where Gov. Pete Wilson bottomed out and began climbing back toward voter acceptability.

There is an assumption among many Republican activists and strategists that the climb Wilson faces is so steep that he likely will fall short and be ousted from office next year. A recent California Field Poll found two Democrats, state Treasurer Kathleen Brown and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, each leading the governor by a comfortable 16-point margin. Worst for Wilson, his job approval rating--although slightly improved--remains the lowest of any first-term governor measured by Field.

What happened over the weekend at a Republican state convention to give Wilson and his allies renewed hope was subtle, abstract and nebulous. But the tea leaves that it produced for gurus to read can only be interpreted as a good sign for the governor.

Basically, the erosion of Wilson’s conservative base was halted at the convention. And to put that in perspective, one has to realize that this was a convention originally planned last summer as a “trash-Wilson” meeting.

Conservatives never have trusted the governor because of his abortion rights and centrist environment views. They got really angry at him when he raised taxes shortly after taking office and ran his own candidates against conservatives in last year’s legislative primaries. But then came November and the Republican debacle, from the presidential race on down through the congressional and legislative contests. And many Republicans--the governor and right-wingers alike--realized that instead of beating up on each other, they should have been banging away more at Democrats.

And so at the state GOP convention most delegates seemed to be walking around with a glazed look in their eyes, in the manner of a barroom brawler who had just been smacked hard across the head and was ready to sit down and think about it.

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“There’s nothing that concentrates the mind so much as the sight of the gallows,” noted new Republican National Chairman Haley Barbour, paraphrasing the English critic Dr. Samuel Johnson as he stood in the back of the convention hall Sunday.

Barbour had set the tone for the meeting Saturday by urging delegates to fight President Clinton’s proposed tax increases instead of fellow Republicans. “As Ronald Reagan used to tell me, if somebody agrees with you 80% of the time he’s a friend and an ally, he’s not a 20% traitor,” Barbour said.

That night, Wilson spoke to the convention and got only a mildly enthusiastic reception. But there were no signs of the blatant hostility that his advisers had feared. His subliminal message during an unusually well-delivered address seemed to be: I can be acceptable . We can live together.

The governor also quoted from Reagan: “We should emphasize the things that unite us and make these the only ‘litmus test’ of what constitutes a Republican.”

What is starting to unite the California GOP again are Clintonomics and the prospect of a Brown or Garamendi governorship.

This was made clear at the climax of the convention Sunday when delegates voted to elect as the GOP’s new vice chairman John S. Herrington, 53, a politically savvy former energy secretary in the Reagan Administration. That puts him on course to automatically become the state party chairman in two years. But more significant now, his election represents a victory for Wilson.

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Herrington by any measure is a conservative, but the right-wingers opposed him because, they charged, he was Wilson’s secret candidate. Too cozy with the governor, they complained. So they backed John McGraw, 31, a conservative activist and anti-abortion crusader.

The astounding fact is that Wilson’s stature within the Republican Party has been so low that his endorsement of a candidate was thought to be a bigger detriment than an asset. For that reason, the governor officially remained neutral while privately rooting for Herrington.

“As I learned politics, you benefited from being close to the governor. You were always climbing over everybody to get tight with a governor,” said an amazed Sal Russo, a GOP consultant who has worked for two governors and was helping Herrington at the convention.

Wilson still faces a lot of fence-mending with conservatives and the state GOP. Many delegates wore buttons reading: “Dump Wilson” and “No Re-Pete.”

But party activist Steven A. Merksamer, echoing others at the convention, noted: “The Republicans who assume the governor is a certain loser are probably the very same people who assumed George Bush was a certain winner a year before his election. . . . Wilson’s great strength is an iron butt.”