NBA: A Once-Cold Draft Could Heat Up

What the NBA needed more than anything, in the wake of Bird and Magic retiring, in the wake of Michael, Charles, Patrick and Hakeem turning 30, is an infusion of talent. Back-to-back drafts, six deep in players of impact. The Shaq Class has already proven it’s ready to take on such responsibility. And what looked three months ago like a really bland draft crop has been enhanced to no end by underclassmen. Maybe lots of underclassmen. The first six picks in the June 30 draft could easily be underclassmen.

Shawn Bradley, Chris Webber, Glen Robinson, Jamal Mashburn, Penny Hardaway, Rodney Rogers, maybe in that order. The first half-hour of the draft could be over before Calbert Cheaney, J.R. Rider, Alan Houston, Bobby Hurley, or any senior’s name is mentioned. Bradley, Mashburn and Hardaway have already told the NBA to count them in. If Webber, reportedly mulling over his options in California, joins them, it’s a great draft. If Robinson, maybe the most talented player in the entire lot joins them too, it becomes a truly great draft.

Twice previously, the top three draftees have been underclassmen. In 1981, Mark Aguirre, Isiah Thomas and Buck Williams went 1-2-3. The next year, 1982, it was James Worthy, Terry Cummings and Dominique Wilkins. But never six. So you wonder, naturally, who is ready to play and who isn’t. Are there more Ennis Whatleys than Dominique Wilkinses among the underclassmen?

David Falk, who will represent the likely No. 1 pick Bradley, came right out and said this week that “hysteria over the possibility of a rookie wage scale,” as communicated by agents, is leading some underclassmen toward leaving school early. “From my discussions with the NBA players association,” he said, “there’s not a strong likelihood that will happen. But a lot of players have been admonished that it will.”

A lot of these kids--and that’s all college underclassmen are, no matter how tall or well-muscled, or endorsement friendly--need to be warned, and reminded constantly about the possible perils of leaving school too early. Falk, who has represented more underclassmen in the last 15 years than anybody, said his advice is to stay in school, “unless he’s in a dire financial situation, or flunking out of school, or will definitely be a lottery pick.”

Even then, in hindsight, some should have stayed. The CBA and the European leagues are littered with players who thought they were God’s gift to pro basketball. And the NBA is stocked with mid-level players who should have given themselves a chance to become stars by staying in college longer.

Sean Higgins left Michigan early and wound up being the last pick in the second round. Now he’s a guy who wanders the league signing 10-day contracts; Golden State signed him for the rest of this season after a pair of 10-days. Anderson Hunt could have transferred to any number of places when his UNLV team went on probation, but he turned pro and wasn’t drafted at all.

Remember Jay Edwards from Indiana? CBA baby. Rex Chapman might not have wanted to stay at Kentucky, but two more years of college ball probably would have made him a much better player than he is now. Same for Cliff Robinson I. Same for John “Hot Plate” Williams. And double for Whatley, who looked like the next coming of Isiah Thomas until he made like Isiah and turned pro after two years at Alabama.

My rule of thumb used to be: “If you’re not Magic or Isiah, don’t turn pro after two years. Period.” It may be time to amend it. Bradley, the 7-foot-6 center from BYU, would be the top pick for most every NBA team even though he’s played only one year of college ball and hasn’t played any organized ball in two years because of his mission for the Mormon church.

People want to compare him to Rik Smits and Manute Bol, which is unfair because Bradley is a jock, a big-time athlete who competes in other sports and has grown up in this country quite accustomed to the cultural pressures and rewards that accompany jockdom. Mark Eaton, a total non-athlete, caused havoc in Utah for years just by standing in the lane. Sure, what we know about Bradley is a drop in the bucket compared to what we don’t know, but the fact is that he may be the only guy coming along the next five years who can occasionally get between Shaq and the glass. We’re talking $4 million to $5 million a year, remember.

Glen Robinson’s case at Purdue is slightly more complicated, starting with the fact that he’s not 7-6. He is 6-9, he did average 25 points and 9.3 rebounds a game, and he is to my eyes the most complete and polished player in the draft. But he’s played only one season. How do you come out after one season? Falk points out that Patrick Ewing, just to throw a name out there, made more money by staying in school and taking advantage of the rising market than if he’d come out after his junior year--1984--and been taken behind Hakeem Olajuwon. Glen Robinson could stand another season.

Hardaway has played two years but hasn’t done particularly well in the NCAA tournament. I’m in the small, small minority on this one, but what has Hardaway done to merit all these comparisons with Magic? Count me as a skeptic.

The entire league, though, waits for Webber’s decision. If Webber had Robinson’s game, Webber would be the No. 1. Right now, his defense is way ahead of his offense, which you can’t often say about college players.

The guy who used college and college basketball for every drop he could is Mashburn, who has come closer to maximizing his potential than anybody.