Upsurge in Violent Crime Seen for County : Law enforcement: The D.A., sheriff and a criminologist ask supervisors to consider the prognosis when making budget cuts.

Violent crimes are expected to explode in Ventura County by the middle of the next decade, and the county’s financially strapped law enforcement system could be hard-pressed to keep pace, county supervisors were told Wednesday.

Trying to stave off further budget cuts, the county’s district attorney, sheriff and a nationally recognized criminologist warned that the rising number of male youths could lead to sharp increases in crime.

Sheriff Larry Carpenter asked the supervisors to consider the grim prognosis in the coming months, when they will be making budget reductions to offset state funding cuts.

“If this was an ordinary year, I would be in here trying to get an increase in sworn deputies,” Carpenter said. “I come in now saying, ‘Just leave me alone.’ ”

Candace McCoy, a professor of criminal justice at Rutgers University, told the board that she recently completed a study on sociological trends expected to affect California’s criminal justice system during the next three decades.

In Ventura County, she warned of a “crime wave” by 2005. She said her conclusions are based on an analysis of county population projections compiled by the state Department of Finance.

The number of males between ages 10 and 25--the group at greatest risk of committing violent crimes--will increase by nearly 15,000, to a total of 96,000, McCoy said.

“You cannot afford to neglect your juvenile prosecution,” McCoy told the supervisors. “Your law enforcement resources must be maintained.”

Supervisor John K. Flynn said he found the projections depressing. But he said the county should find ways other than beefing up law enforcement to combat the problem.

“There needs to be a huge commitment in the fields of education and child-rearing,” Flynn said. “When these kids are little, we should prevent them from getting into trouble.

“We always need police, courts and public defenders,” he continued. “But our society needs more than that.”

Supervisor Maria E. VanderKolk said, however, it will be a struggle to fund such crime-prevention programs.

“The saddest thing is all those good preventive programs are first to go during times like these,” VanderKolk said. “I think ultimately the board needs to go through all of these things and really start prioritizing. There is no way we can cut criminal justice to the extent that has been discussed.”

Several months ago, the supervisors ordered department heads to find ways to slice their already sparse budgets by up to 12.5% in the next fiscal year, which begins in July.

The supervisors agreed that most areas of government should make cuts ranging from 10% to 12.5% of their current funding. But law enforcement agencies and the Ventura County Medical Center were only asked to make reductions ranging from 7.5% to 10%.

Although Carpenter did not outline for the supervisors the effects of a 10% cut on his department, he said earlier this week that such a cut would cost jobs and end routine investigations of all but the most serious crimes.

On May 25, Carpenter, Dist. Atty. Michael D. Bradbury, Public Defender Kenneth I. Clayman and Courts Administrator Sheila Gonzalez are scheduled to present the details of their budgets to the board.

Wednesday’s two-hour session was intended to give supervisors more background information on the challenges that law enforcement officials are facing, Bradbury said. His office asked McCoy to brief the meeting on future trends.

Bradbury told the board that even now, “Today’s youths are acting out more violently and at a younger age.”

For instance, he said, last year his office filed homicide charges against 19 people. Five of the defendants were under age 18 at the time of the crime. All but four were under age 25.

“The realization that the current level of violence we are experiencing in our society is only going to increase over the next decade is frightening,” Bradbury said.

What’s worse, Bradbury said, the number of his investigators probing violent crimes has decreased from 36 to 28 in two years.

Carpenter said that while Ventura County remains among the nation’s safest urban areas, he fears the county could soon lose that standing.

“We’ve already seen the beginnings of these trends in our communities,” he said. “Gang membership in the sheriff’s jurisdiction has risen to 760 in 1993.” Three years ago, only 452 belonged to gangs, he said.

According to department projections, the number of violent crimes in the sheriff’s jurisdiction could increase from the current level of 80 per month to about 240 per month by the year 2020, Carpenter said.

“If we are going to preserve the quality of life we now enjoy in our communities, we cannot afford to lose any more ground,” he said.