Mayor Young Keeps Detroit Guessing on Bid for Sixth Term : Politics: He has a loyal constituency and a $4-million campaign war chest. But city’s economic woes lead many to call for fresh leadership.

Will he or won’t he? That has been the main topic of political discussion here recently as Mayor Coleman A. Young keeps everyone guessing about whether he will run for a sixth four-year term.

It is a guessing game that the 75-year-old Democrat appears to relish. He has tantalized the public and the media with his indecision, and his close associates insist he has not made up his mind. The filing deadline is Tuesday.

At his public birthday party last month, about 5,000 supporters packed Cobo Hall downtown hoping to hear Young declare his candidacy. But in a brief speech, he did not tell his vocal backers what they wanted to hear.

“I don’t know whether I will and I don’t know whether I won’t,” Young said. “I’ll tell you this, I’ll run if I want to. And if I run, I won’t be playing.”

No one doubts that Young would be a formidable candidate if he runs in the Sept. 14 primary. He has a loyal constituency, an efficient political machine and a $4-million campaign fund.

But there appears to be growing sentiment that the city needs fresh leadership. Some note parallels to Los Angeles, where Mayor Tom Bradley, who like Young is black and was criticized at times for ineffectiveness, stepped aside after 20 years in office.

Four people, some with the backing of onetime Young supporters, already have announced their candidacies for mayor. The most serious challenger so far is Dennis Archer, a former state Supreme Court justice and a former Young ally. Other challengers are expected to emerge by the Tuesday deadline.

The eventual winner will face some daunting problems. The city has experienced a sharp decline in population and economic health. Crime and drugs continue to plague the neighborhoods, and businesses are still leaving downtown.

Young, the city’s first black mayor and once a national political force, increasingly has become isolated, rarely venturing out of the executive mansion. His health has deteriorated--he suffers from emphysema--although supporters say he is still vigorous enough to handle the mayoral duties.

But cracks have appeared in Young’s political armor. An independent poll commissioned earlier this year by the city’s newspapers found that nearly 80% of the voters thought he should step aside.

Even many supporters, noting Detroit’s long-term decline that Young has presided over, say it is time for him to quit. The Rev. James Holley, pastor of the Little Rock Baptist Church and a longtime Young supporter, lashed out at the mayor in a recent speech.

“One man’s history must not determine 1 million’s future,” he said in the speech that took Young to task for his trademark profanity and poor record in attracting and retaining businesses.

Young, however, who honed his skills as a labor organizer and civil rights advocate, has overcome opposition in the past. He defeated accountant Tom Barrow in 1989 by a 56%-44% margin after a bruising primary in which he beat out Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.). That was Young’s closest race since he was first elected in 1973.

Still, his popularity seems to be waning. He has received more open criticism than ever before, and his opponents point to a host of problems troubling the city.

Detroit’s population has fallen to just over 1 million from nearly 2 million three decades ago. And it is one of the nation’s poorest and most racially segregated cities, with a 70% black population, surrounded by affluent suburbs.

The city’s public housing department is in disarray and has been threatened with a federal takeover. Southwest Airlines is leaving Detroit’s inner-city airport because a promised expansion was not completed.

And the city’s bond rating is below investment grade. In recent years, it has had to balance its $2-billion budget by cutting employees and services and raising taxes. This has contributed to the exodus of businesses.

A recent survey by the Central Business District Assn. found 20% of the buildings downtown vacant. Young has supported casino gambling to revitalize the downtown area, but voters rejected it in a special election earlier this month.

Young has said the city’s problems are linked to financial difficulties in the auto industry and white flight to the suburbs. These have contributed to unemployment, and, thus, the crime and drug problems, he says.

Besides Archer, candidates who have announced that they are running for mayor are Sharon MacPhail, a division chief in the Wayne County prosecutor’s office; Paul Hubbard, former president of a civic and civil rights group, and Charles Costa, a businessman.

Several others may join the race if Young does not run. Those who have expressed interest include Conyers; Wayne County Commission Chairman Arthur Blackwell; Don Barden, owner of the local cable TV franchise, and Charlie J. William, Young’s top aide in city hall.

If Young does not run, he still could be a kingmaker by anointing a favorite candidate. Speculation has centered on Blackwell as the most likely beneficiary of Young’s blessing.

The son of the former mayor of Highland Park, Mich., Blackwell is highly regarded in national black political circles. He recently held a $250-a-plate fund-raiser in which Young served as one of the honorary chairmen.