Financial Notebook / Third-Quarter Planner
The third quarter often means the dog days of summer. But this summer you may want to pay a bit more attention to politics and economics than usual.
President Clinton’s tax plan and economic indicators could trash--or boost--your investments. The markets--still at historic highs--are assuming that the economy is improving, albeit slowly. Employment and productivity must continue to rise and interest rates and inflation must remain low for financial markets to remain healthy, experts say. Here’s a planner to help you get through the quarter:
JULY
Tip of the month: Watch the progress of Clinton’s economic and tax proposals. House and Senate leaders will meet to iron out their differences and come up with a detailed bill for the president to sign.
Bargain buys: Seasonal fruit, vegetables and fish, shoes, men’s summer suits and underwear. Near the end of the month, look for bathing suit sales.
Monday, July 5: Take it easy. Banks and financial markets observe the Independence Day holiday by taking the day off.
Wednesday, July 14: Hope for low inflation. June’s consumer price index should rise only slightly.
Thursday, July 29: Look for modest growth in gross domestic product statistics released today.
AUGUST
Tip of the month: These are the dog days of summer for your tax accountant, which means he or she has time to examine your financial picture and tell you what actions you might take today to save on 1993 taxes.
Bargain buys: Seasonal fruit, vegetables, furniture, carpet, linens, garden tools, air conditioners, patio furniture and women’s fall fashions.
Thursday, August 5: Family and Medical Leave Act takes effect. Starting today, most workers have the right to 12 weeks of unpaid leave to care for a newborn, an ill family member or your own medical problems.
Friday, August 6: Watch the July unemployment statistics. Declining jobless figures released today could help stocks rally. But if unemployment’s up, watch out.
Friday, August 13: Consumer price statistics out.
Monday, August 16: Quit procrastinating on your taxes. If you applied for an extension to file your personal tax return, today is the day of reckoning.
Monday, August 30: Consider buying equities. The stock market has climbed 23 out of 30 times in the three days prior to Labor Day.
SEPTEMBER
Tip of the month: Buy big-ticket items such as cars, washers and dryers: The 1994 car models are starting to come out and dealers are desperate to peddle unsold ‘93s. Meanwhile, home buying ebbs in the fall, so housewares on sale.
Bargain buys: Seasonal fruit, vegetables, hardware, housewares, gardening supplies and children’s clothes, thanks to back-to-school sales.
Wednesday, September 1: Second-quarter gross domestic product statistics should indicate modest growth.
Friday, September 3: August unemployment statistics out.
Monday, September 6: Relax. It’s Labor Day, and financial markets are closed.
Tuesday, September 14: Consumer price statistics out.
Wednesday, September 15: Pay your estimated taxes. If you don’t pay income taxes through employee withholding, you must make a payment of roughly one-quarter of the estimated amount you’ll owe for the 1993 tax year.
Thursday, September 30: Check September stock performance. Buy stocks before Labor Day but sell if stock prices rise all through the month. While stock prices usually move up in the three days prior to Labor Day, the month is considered a good “reverse indicator” for both the fourth quarter and the coming year. In other words, if September’s up, stock prices are poised to decline.
Sources: Yale Hirsch, Stock Trader’s Almanac; Melodie Moore, Skinflint News; Internal Revenue Service; Commerce Department; Department of Labor
