Keep the Conflict Contained : Vicious Hezbollah attack stirs Middle East tensions anew

Israel, after suffering its worst one-day death toll in Lebanon since 1985 in attacks on its soldiers, has struck back with air raids against facilities of the radical pro-Iran Hezbollah movement. Now civilians in both southern Lebanon and northern Israel wait nervously to see if the violence will again escalate.

Initial indications are that it won’t. Despite the fact that nine soldiers were killed, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin has carefully noted that since the Hezbollah actions weren’t directed against Israel proper, last month’s cease-fire agreement has not been violated. In Beirut, the Hezbollah leader Sheik Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah has threatened to resume rocket attacks on Israel only if Lebanese civilians come under Israeli attack. The Israeli media have reported that the secret understandings that underlie the July cease-fire include an Israeli promise not to attack civilians provided Hezbollah doesn’t rocket Israel. So far it appears that both sides are prepared to keep the conflict contained.

That could change at any time. Like the regime in Tehran, from which it draws financial support and spiritual guidance, Hezbollah fiercely opposes any settlement between Arabs and Israel, whose very existence the radical Islamic forces regard as illicit. Trying to provoke Israel into heavy-handed retaliation as a way to destroy the talks didn’t work last month. That doesn’t mean it won’t be tried again.

Rabin seemed to give some credit to Syria for restraining Hezbollah from launching rockets against Israel this week. Earlier, Israelis had suggested that Syria’s blocking of arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah last month was important in helping to bring about the cease-fire. Jerusalem is pretty clearly signaling that it regards Damascus as seriously interested in reaching a settlement. Couple that with the new political realism now at work in Israeli-Palestinian talks and peace prospects look a bit better. That’s not something Islamic radicals in Iran and southern Lebanon want, which is why the area almost certainly has not seen the last of their efforts to sabotage the peace process.