NFL Future Shock Near Reality : Pro football: Several accomplished players can expect pay cuts or loss of jobs as a result of projected salary cap.

Wide receiver Henry Ellard of the Rams is probably in the final year of his football career, and he doesn’t know it.

Ellard, one of 33 players in NFL history to have caught more than 500 passes, will earn $850,000 this season.

When the season ends, Ellard will become a free agent and, based on the recent off-season’s payoffs to free agents with his credentials, he expects to become a millionaire.

“No way,” said an official from one NFL team. “Salary cap. Next year he’s just another guy named Henry looking for work, now that his football career is over.”

Salary cap. By this time next year, those two words will probably have been the death knell for scores of athletes who shared one major flaw: They made too much money.

Pay cuts and pink slips are expected to deplete most NFL rosters. Household names will be released, and fans will not understand why good players remain available and unwanted.

“There are a lot of people who are in for a rude awakening,” said Jackie Slater, Ram offensive tackle. “You will no longer have the middle-of-the-road guy, the solid, stable backup who has been paid good money to do what he does. That job is going to be eliminated.

“Guys that have the ambition of playing a long time and who have set economic goals are going to become disenchanted when they realize their dream is unattainable because of what the union has done with the collective-bargaining agreement.

“There are going to be cuts in pay, and there are going to be lots of young guys making little or no money. Everybody is looking at last year and thinking they are getting ready to break the bank. They are totally ignoring that little bitty thing--the salary cap.”

The salary cap will go into effect if the league spends 67% of its gross revenue on player costs.

John Shaw, executive vice president of the Rams and one of the prime designers of the salary cap, said his team is $3 million to $5 million over next year’s projected cap.

Take a look at the Rams’ roster, and imagine having to cut up to $5 million from the payroll and then go compete for a playoff berth.

“And we’re considered in the middle of the pack,” Shaw said. “If we don’t have an increase in television revenue, then most organizations are going to have to make cuts.”

Players such as Ellard, however, will be looking for a raise next season.

“With free agency like it was this year, there is definitely a big difference,” Ellard said. “I’m just not sure how all this affects me.”

Players who have done great things, such as Ellard, might continue to pile up impressive statistics, but that probably still won’t matter.

“This is (Washington wide receiver) Art Monk’s last season, whether he likes it or not,” agent Bruce Allen said. “Players are going to be playing for $350,000 a year or they’re going to be out of a job, especially on successful teams.”

Tackle Irv Eatman left the New York Jets in March and agreed to play for the Rams this season for more than $1 million. Good timing, as Eatman discovered, made him a rich man.

“Next year won’t be like this year, that’s for sure,” Eatman said. “A lot of teams did their thing this year and said, ‘We’ll worry about next year when it comes.’

“You’re going to see a lot of surprises next year. There are going to be guys who don’t make it, and you won’t understand why until you look and see what they’re making.”

This year, teams such as Green Bay and the Jets put out large sums of money for widely known free agents. Next year, they will be forced by the rules to substantially reduce their payrolls.

“I’ve drawn up some scenarios on an overhead projector just to show our coaches what 1994 is really going to look like,” said Bobby Beathard, San Diego general manager. “The 49ers have 23 players and have set aside $23 million for them. Most people are guessing the cap to be around $33 million with $4.5 million of that being set aside for players’ benefits.

“That leaves $28.5 million for salaries.”

That would also leave $5.5 million, under the 49ers’ plan, to pay their remaining 25 to 30 players.

“I took an example for our team,” Beathard said. “Setting aside 37 players and what we pay them, we’re about $5.7 million over the projected cap right there.

“Coaches are going to have to sort out the players they absolutely can’t do without. Coaches aren’t used to those kind of decisions. I mean, I’ve never been with a team where you had to get rid of somebody because of money, but the system now is telling you to do that.”

The system changed when owners and players agreed to a new six-year collective-bargaining agreement, which includes the potential for a salary cap beginning in 1994.

“The purpose of the cap is to put all teams on the same playing field competitively,” Shaw said. “During the labor negotiations, movement--free agency--was a big issue with the players.

“At the heart of the negotiations was a trade-off of free agency for a salary cap. All teams, despite their revenues, despite the fact the Eagles might have $15 million more than the Falcons, the Packers and Bengals, have the same amount of dollars to sign players.

“In the future, it will become a question of who best allocates the money. Everybody will have the same amount of money to spend. Who makes the best decisions with that money?”

This first year of unrestricted free agency--players with five or more years of service qualified--prompted a spending spree by owners, and 118 players changed teams. Those players enjoyed an average increase of 91.7% over their previous contract package, according to the NFL Players Assn.

One hundred and forty-six players re-signed with their former employers, and as a group they realized a 74% increase over their previous contracts.

There were 114 restricted free agents--four years of service--who stayed with their teams, and on the average their contract packages increased 111.9%.

The financial bonanza appears to have been a one-time deal, however.

“If we spend, as a league, 67% of our defined gross revenue on player costs, which is roughly 92% of total gross revenue, then we trigger a salary cap the next year,” Shaw said. “From all appearances and from figures I’ve seen recently, we will trigger the cap.”

Although 67% of the league’s defined gross revenue will bring on the cap, only 65% of the league’s defined revenue will go to the players next year, and it will ultimately drop to 62%.

The amount of money available under the salary cap next year will be determined to a large extent by next year’s television contract, which has yet to be negotiated. Each team received an average of $32.5 million a year for the previous four-year TV deal. In this, the final year of that pact, teams will each receive $39 million.

“A lot of problems will be solved if we have an increase in TV revenue,” Shaw said.

NFL owners are counting on a larger payoff in the new television package, but network executives have hinted that if there is an increase, it may be minor. A good deal will allow players to earn more money next season; a drop in TV money will force more veterans from the game.

“In looking at the cap, you have to stay focused on the big picture rather than taking a microscopic glance at one particular player,” Shaw said. “What we are saying to the players now is that we are partners in this business and for this business to succeed we have to do it together as a partnership.

“We are saying to the players, as our partners we are giving you 62 to 65% of our defined gross revenue. If our business has some unhealthy years, then you players as our partners have to share in the downside of those years. You still get the same percentage, but you share in a lesser portion of defined gross income.

“As this business expands and matures, then as our partner you will get more as the gross increases.

“Taking less money is a difficult concept for some to understand, but as in any partnership, when you’re not doing well, all the partners have to take less.

“You can have a player making $500,000 in ‘92, $1.5 million in ’93 and there’s nothing to say now he couldn’t make $500,000 or $900,000 in ’94. You’re seeing it in American business today during this recessionary period. High-paid executives are being asked to take less money. From our organizational view, we’re going to try and have the best players making the most money. If that means an unrestricted free agent might be asked to take less, then that’s going to happen.”

When all the economic decisions have been made, who will be left on the field to play the game?

“A lot will depend on management’s view,” Shaw said. “Some people think we’re moving to a star system where the stars will get a lot of money and the rest of the roster will include younger players and less expensive backups.

“There is another view, however, that this is a team sport and that there are very few stars who impact a club significantly. So the idea is, if you have a whole bunch of good players, rather than a few stars, then you can have a good football team.

“This just puts a greater emphasis on management, coaching and the ability to make the right roster decisions during the free-agency period. Many of these decisions will have to be made now rather than later in training camp. The teams that make the most right decisions will be the ones most successful under the salary cap.”

Unlike the NBA’s salary cap, which allows teams to increase the salaries of its own players without counting against the cap, the NFL will have an absolute cap.

The NFL’s cap will include all player costs. Most teams are spending $300,000 to $400,000 a year to induce players to work out in the off-season. That money will now count against the cap.

If a player moves to injured reserve next season, his salary counts against the cap, which theoretically could prompt a team to cut another player in order to have the money to sign a replacement for the injured player. The Redskins reportedly have already set aside $2.5 million next season for injured-reserve situations.

“Teams that have a sudden rash of injuries could fall from being very competitive to just average and having to finish out the season,” agent Ralph Cindrich said. “And now you’re going to have more younger players because you’re not going to keep or be able to pay older players. Younger players are more apt to blow assignments because of their lack of experience, and now your quarterback is getting slammed to the turf.”

The cap, which might lead to ultimate parity in the game, is not being greeted by everyone with gloom and doom.

“Theoretically, it will help give backup players on good teams an opportunity to move to teams who haven’t done as well,” said Bill Polian, NFL vice president of football development. “Teams such as the Redskins and Bills, who had good veteran backups, may not have that luxury in the future. But I don’t believe any good football player is going to disappear. Good football players will still have a place in this league, although they might not be with the team they were a year ago.”

Some observers, however, have suggested that there won’t be much movement via free agency next season because teams won’t have the money to spend on high-profile performers.

“But I don’t think we’re looking at ‘Apocalypse Now’ for the 1994 season,” said Michael Duberstein, research director for the NFLPA. “If you have teams with high payrolls, such as the Redskins, 49ers, Giants, Bills making adjustments, these players aren’t going to leave the league. They are going to play for teams that have had lower payrolls. The salary cap is pro competitive.”

The draft, more than ever, will also become an important tool in dealing with the salary cap because teams will have to rely on youth to fill their rosters. In addition, teams are guaranteed four years of service from drafted players before they become eligible for free agency.

“You can’t afford to make mistakes in the draft with high picks,” Beathard said. “I’ve been a bit of a risk-taker in the second round before and have made mistakes, but you can’t do that anymore. The better you draft, the better chance you have of being good in the new system. The way the cap works, you can’t go out and buy the talent; now you have to draft the guys and get them ready to play right away.”

Projected Free Agents in ’94

Some of the NFL players who can become free agents in 1994:

Player Team Pos. ’93 Salary Darryl Talley Buffalo LB $950,000 William Perry Chicago DT $742,500 Chris Spielman Detroit LB $1.025 million Andre Ware Detroit QB $1.025 million Chris Dishman Houston DB $846,500 Sean Jones Houston DE $950,000 Webster Slaughter Houston WR $1.150 million Jon Hand Indianapolis DE $1.1 million Dave Krieg Kansas City QB $1.95 million Henry Ellard Rams WR $850,000 Anthony Carter Minnesota WR $1 million Blair Thomas New York Jets RB $1.1 million Rickey Jackson New Orleans LB $1.3 million Freddie Joe Nunn Phoenix LB $1.2 million Herschel Walker Philadelphia RB $1.5 million John Friesz San Diego QB $850,000 Tom Rathman San Francisco RB $985,000 Gary Anderson Tampa Bay RB $950,000 Jeff Bryant Seattle DT $1.125 million Earnest Byner Washington RB $1 million