THE TIMES POLL : School Voucher Initiative Narrowly Trails, 45%-39%

With less than two months until the statewide special election, a measure that would allow parents to use tax-funded vouchers to pay for private school tuition is trailing narrowly among the state’s registered voters, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Proposition 174--the Education Vouchers Initiative--is favored by 39% of voters surveyed and opposed by 45%, with 16% undecided.

But the fate of the measure--which would fundamentally alter the way California funds its public schools--will likely rest in the hands of a fraction of the state’s voters, making it difficult to predict how the voucher proposal will fare in the election.

“There is no evidence in the poll right now that one side has a major advantage over the other in terms of mobilizing its supporters,” said John Brennan, director of the Times poll, which surveyed 1,162 California residents--including 896 registered voters--between Sept. 10 and 13. The overall sample has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, and 4 percentage points among registered votes.

“People who favor or oppose vouchers have about the same level of interest in the election,” Brennan said.

The Nov. 2 election is not expected to generate a heavy voter turnout; more than eight of 10 voters polled by The Times said they were not familiar with one or the other of two tax measures that will appear on the ballot alongside the voucher initiative. More than half were unfamiliar with the voucher proposal and offered their opinion only after being read a ballot summary of the measure.

The special election was called by Gov. Pete Wilson to allow counties to vote on whether to make permanent a half-cent increase in the state sales tax. When read the ballot summary, voters favored the measure by 53% to 26%.

The third ballot proposition would allow voters to approve local school bond measures and raise property taxes to repay them by a simple majority rather than the two-thirds vote now needed. It was trailing, with 51% of the voters opposed and 35% in favor.

About 37% of voters turned out in the last statewide special election in 1979. This time, the character of a small electorate could dramatically influence the outcome on the voucher issue.

The Times Poll shows the voucher issue does not divide voters sharply along ideological or political lines. And its proponents have yet to develop the strong core constituency the measure needs to prevail at the polls.

“It’s got lackluster support among some of the groups that might be expected to really be behind it,” said Brennan. “It is struggling even among what might be considered its base.”

The measure draws its strongest support from among conservatives, blacks and private school parents, but none of those groups favor it by more than 60%. Its biggest opposition comes from union members. Catholics are divided, as are Republicans.

It is an issue on which people may tend to vote their personal interests, rather than their politics.

“It comes down to a financial decision for me,” said Sam Kuwahara, whose daughter is in the eighth grade at a Sacramento Lutheran school. The $2,600 voucher would be more than enough to pay her annual tuition, he said.

The voucher initiative would amend the state Constitution to allow tax money previously set aside for public schools to go directly to parents, in the form of vouchers that could be redeemed for approximately $2,600 each year at private or parochial schools.

Proponents say it would relieve the pressures on the state’s overcrowded public school systems and spur them to improve by competing for students. Opponents say it would drain money from already underfunded schools and allow the proliferation of unregulated and inadequate private academies.

If the voucher initiative passes, California would be the first state in the nation to adopt a “school choice” measure that allows taxpayer funds to go to private schools. The initiative is being watched closely by education groups around the country.

Supporters have produced such big-name backers as former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp and former Secretary of Education William Bennett. Their opponents have locked up endorsements from most major civil rights groups and used teachers unions to field a strong grass-roots campaign.

“The other side has said all along that they were going to blow us out of the water,” said Ken Khachigian, the veteran conservative political consultant who heads the voucher campaign. “But this is a very heartening result, from my point of view. A six-point margin means it’s a horse race, it’s even.”

Although neither campaign is yet in full swing--only the voucher opponents have begun airing radio commercials--voters seem to have a clear understanding of the arguments advanced by each side.

The Times Poll found that those who favor vouchers believe they will provide children with a better education (28%), allow parents more choice in picking schools (26%), force drastic changes on a public school system that is not working (15%) and encourage competition with private schools (13%).

Those against the measure say they oppose vouchers because they will destroy the public school system (23%), drain needed money from public schools (17%), help the rich and hurt the poor (11%) and won’t work to improve schools (10%).

“Rather than energy going into the public school system, they would be fragmenting the system, with people left behind who have nowhere to go,” said Susan Graubard Archuletta, a single mother with four children who have attended public schools in Northern California.

Archuletta lives in Ft. Bragg but sends her two youngest children to a public high school in Mendocino, 10 miles away, where classes are smaller and the curriculum is more challenging than at her neighborhood school. She is active at Mendocino High--a musician, she accompanies the school’s choir--and plans to lobby her friends against vouchers.

But Archuletta has already exercised a form of school choice--sending her children outside her local district in search of a better education. And many parents polled by The Times say vouchers would allow them that same opportunity.

“Our schools are overcrowded, supplies are short. . . . I’d hate for (the voucher measure) to take money away from them,” said Niecy Brumfield, whose two daughters attend Los Angeles Unified campuses in South-Central Los Angeles.

“But there are some people like me who can only afford public schools and we want the best for our kids,” she said. “This would give me a chance to look for the best.”

If the measure passes, the poll indicates that two in five (42%) parents with children currently in public schools would consider transferring them to private or parochial schools.

Among private school parents, 59% say they plan to vote for vouchers, compared to 37% of public school parents.

“It would pay for four or five months worth of tuition,” said Al Grice, whose son is in the first grade at a Claremont Montessori school. “I don’t know of a good private school you can go to for $2,600, but it would help.”

Grice visited his neighborhood public school in Chino before enrolling his son at the Claremont private school. “The kindergarten class had 36 kids,” he said. “I think (vouchers) would benefit public schools, because kids would leave and that would decrease class size.”

Despite the criticisms leveled at the state’s public schools, the Times Poll found that almost three-quarters of parents whose children attend public schools generally give them high marks. Twenty-eight percent rated them as excellent and 44% said public schools are adequate.

One in four said their local public schools are getting worse, but almost as many (21%) think they are improving. By 59% to 37%, they rate the current reform efforts in local public school adequate, rather than inadequate.

However, voters--most of whom are not public school parents--view the schools more negatively, with 36% saying public schools are getting worse and 42% indicating that reform efforts are inadequate.

Brennan said those lower levels of school satisfaction among voters--who will ultimately decide the fate of the voucher initiative for the state’s parents--should help give the measure a boost.

But disaffection with the schools does not translate directly into support for shifting to a voucher system. Even among the 37% of voters who feel public schools are getting worse, the initiative leads only narrowly, by 47% to 39%.

Indeed, when Californians are asked to name the thing they most want done to improve the state’s schools, almost none (4%) say passage of Proposition 174 is their top priority.

Mentioned far more often were more money for schools (22%), higher teacher salaries (11%), improving teacher quality (12%,) greater parental involvement (9%) and getting back to basics in education (8%).

“This is a hard one for me,” said Rebecca Lui, who is leaning against vouchers, while her husband is inclined to vote for them. “I can see both sides, but I don’t want to do anything that is going to hurt the public school system.”

Her son is in the seventh grade at an exclusive private school in the Sacramento suburb of Roseville. Her third-grade daughter attends public school but is on the waiting list for a private school.

Cost is not an issue for the family, she said. Concern for the public schools is, and she and her husband are divided on whether vouchers will help or hurt.

She worries that vouchers would take so much money away from public schools that they could not afford to improve. Her husband contends that without the competition from private schools, the public system has no incentive to improve.

The poll showed that voters over 65 could be an important swing vote in moving the voucher fight one way or the other. The elderly tend to vote in high proportions--40% of those over 65 polled said they are very interested in this election, compared to 33% of other voters. Moreover, 37% of the elderly have not committed to a decision, compared to 24% of the rest of the voters.

“Older voters are the kind that turn out in large numbers in special elections, and they’re our kind of voters,” said Rick Manter, campaign consultant for the voucher opposition. “They’re concerned about the fiscal impact, and when they realize this will cost over a billion dollars a year (in vouchers to students already in private schools), we think that’s a pretty good message to older voters.” The fiscal impact of vouchers is a highly contentious point in the campaigns.

Khachigian said his side will try to capture the elderly vote, too, with the message that vouchers will help keep property taxes low in the future by relieving the need to build new schools. The tax measures are expected to draw large numbers of elderly voters to the polls.

* RELATED STORY: A3

THE TIMES POLL: Californians on School Vouchers

Few cite passage of Proposition 174 as a high priority for improving state schools; more say funding and teacher quality are important. Voucher proponents think the initiative will improve education and allow parents greater choice; opponents fear it will destroy the public schools and deprive them of needed funds.

* In your opinion, what should be done to improve the quality of elementary and secondary school education in California? (Two replies accepted.)

All Registered Public Private Adults Voters School School Parents Parents Schools need more funds 22% 22% 25% 24% Improve teacher quality 12% 13% 11% 15% Pay teachers more 11% 12% 8% 15% Cut bureaucracy 10% 12% 8% 8% Get parents more involved 9% 10% 8% 10% Emphasize basic education 8% 8% 7% 10% Cut class size 6% 7% 7% 13% Add more teachers 5% 5% 6% 5% Improve security 5% 5% 5% 4% Increase student discipline 5% 6% 5% 5% Pass voucher initiative 4% 5% 3% 11%

* If passed, Proposition 174, the Education Vouchers Initiative Constitutional Amendment, would permit the conversion of public schools to independent voucher-redeeming schools. It requires state-funded vouchers for children enrolled in qualifying private schools. And it restricts the regulation of such schools. If the November election were being held today, would you vote for or against 174?

All Registered Public Private Adults Voters School School Parents Parents For 38% 39% 37% 59% Against 43% 45% 45% 26% Don’t know 19% 16% 18% 15%

* Why are you voting for Prop. 174? (Two replies accepted.)

All Registered Public Private Adults Voters School School Parents Parents Allow better education 28% 29% 29% NA Allow parents greater choice 26% 25% 26% NA Public schools aren’t working 15% 18% 14% NA Encourage competition 13% 15% 22% NA

* Why are you voting against Prop. 174? (Two replies accepted.)

All Registered Public Private Adults Voters School School Parents Parents Will destroy public schools 23% 21% 22% NA Drain money from public schools 17% 15% 21% NA Helps rich people 11% 12% 10% NA Vouchers won’t work 10% 9% 11% NA

Notes: NA indicates not available. Numbers for the first, third and fourth questions do not add to 100% because only the top responses are displayed.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,162 adult California residents statewide, including 896 registered voters, by telephone from Sept. 10 to 13. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and labor force participation. Parents with children in private and parochial schools were oversampled to ensure a large enough group for analysis but were weighted to their proper proportion in the overall sample. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the total sample and plus or minus 4 points for registered voters; for other sub-groups it may be somewhat higher. Polls are also affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.