MIGHTY DUCKS ‘93-94: PREMIERE SEASON : Facing the Factors for Winning Edge : Preview: There are several elements that could give the expansion team a little help in grabbing a victory here and there.

The Mighty Ducks are going to have good nights and bad nights this season--but definitely more bad than good.

Ottawa won 10 games in its first season. San Jose won 17. Tampa Bay won 23. Those are the parameters set by recent expansion teams.

Coach Ron Wilson knows that it will take a certain alignment of the planets for the Ducks to win, but he still has a positive take on his team’s chances. Give him time.

“I don’t think there’s anybody in the league we can’t beat,” Wilson said. “We have to be on top of our game, for sure, and maybe the top teams would have to not be at the top of theirs, or tired.”

Here are some of the factors that are likely to be involved on those occasional nights--will there be 10, 15, 20?--when the Ducks win.

LOW SCORE

“For us to win, it’s got to be low-scoring--4-3, 3-2,” Wilson said. “I don’t see us ever winning a game giving up five or more goals.”

GOOD FIRST PERIOD

The decisive moments will be early.

“If we catch a team not prepared to play us, and in the first 10 minutes guys finish their chances, then we can get a two- or three-goal lead and then dig in defensively,” Wilson said.

If the early minutes go the other way, look out. This won’t be a team very capable of coming from behind.

“For a team that doesn’t have a proven 30-goal or 40-goal scorer in the lineup to get down two goals in the first 10 minutes of the game--it will be an uphill battle,” Wilson said.

PHYSICAL PLAY WITHOUT PENALTIES

General Manager Jack Ferreira’s strategy is that size and strength can even things out for the skill-deficient Ducks. Wilson believes some opponents might take his team lightly and be surprised by its physical play--or see the physical style and be tempted to take a skilled player out of the lineup.

But the benefits of the team’s size and strength will be erased if the Ducks have to spend all their effort trying to kill penalties.

“We have to play hard and physical, but we have to stay out of the penalty box,” Wilson said. “We can’t get mad and slap people in the back of the head. We can’t get a lot of hooking and holding penalties. We want to be aggressive, but we want to be cleanly aggressive.”

DILIGENT DEFENSE

“Finish your checks,” could be this team’s motto. Defensive intensity will be all-important. Even in exhibition games, it has been evident that when this team doesn’t concentrate all its efforts, bad things happen.

“(We have to) stick to our strategy defensively, so we give up one shot at a time, not in waves,” Wilson said.

Alexei Kasatonov, 33, a former New Jersey Devil and Soviet national team defenseman, is the anchor of a defense that includes Sean Hill, 23, and big defensemen Bobby Dollas and Bill Houlder.

STEADY GOALTENDING

Guy Hebert and Ron Tugnutt are expected to share the job as “No. 1-A and No. 1-B.” Wilson believes the expansion workload is too much for one goalie. If these two need “time to recuperate,” as Wilson says, he can turn to veteran Allan Bester or Mikhail Shtalenkov in San Diego.

To give Hebert and Tugnutt a fighting chance, the Ducks need to limit the shots. Thirty-five or 40 is too many.

“Our team needs to keep it around 25,” Wilson said. “I don’t look at is so much as shots as quality chances. Teams that keep the quality chances under 15 usually win.”

SCORERS MUST BLOSSOM

No defense is good enough to get more than a scoreless tie. The Ducks need goals, and not just from Terry Yake, who scored 22 for Hartford last season and is expected to carry the load. Former Vancouver center Anatoli Semenov had 49 points last season, but is mostly an assist man.

Tim Sweeney, who had 96 points for minor-league Providence and eight in 14 games for Boston, is an example. Steven King, who had 35 goals for minor-league Binghamton but started slowly in training camp, could be another. Joe Sacco has never had more than 37 points in a professional season, but he caught Wilson’s eye with a strong camp performance. Shaun Van Allen, a free-agent signee, has had two 100-point seasons in the minors but only five points in 23 NHL games.

MINIMAL INJURIES

With little depth and a physical game plan, sprains, strains and charley-horses could be a problem. A significant injury to a key player--say, Kasatonov--could be devastating. Not only is the steady veteran the defensive anchor, but he also will be on the power-play and penalty-killing units.

“Alex might be the key to everything we do,” Wilson said. “He’s a workhorse.”

*

These are the factors. The next 84 games will determine the season.

Reason to be optimistic: Well, Wilson is.

Reason to be pessimistic: Ottawa was optimistic too.