THE TIMES POLL : Governor’s Approval Rating Resumes Its Fall

After a brief rally in September, Gov. Pete Wilson’s standing among Californians has sagged back toward his record negative performance levels of last fall, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Wilson also dropped back into double-digit deficits in matchups against two potential Democratic challengers, state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and Treasurer Kathleen Brown.

The slippage in the Republican governor’s job rating coincides with a dip in the number of residents who rank illegal immigration as one of California’s top problems. That is an issue Wilson has pushed with vigor since August and that apparently gave him a boost in popularity in The Times poll a month ago.

There has been no easing, however, in Californians’ pessimism about the state’s economy and the general direction in which the state is going. Three-fourths of the 1,718 Californians contacted Saturday through Tuesday believe California is on the wrong track. The overall sample has a margin of error of 3 points.

An overwhelming number say that the state remains mired in recession. More than half consider it a serious one. About a third think the economy will get even worse in the next three months and only 1 in 10 think it will improve in that time.

Against that gloomy backdrop, Wilson gets a job approval rating of 31% and a disapproval rating of 55%. That compares to 37% approval and 45% disapproval in September. Wilson’s low point as governor was 28% and 61% last October, after the protracted state budget stalemate.

As Wilson prepares to seek reelection next year, he is having trouble holding the support of even his own Republican constituency, Times Poll Director John Brennan said. He barely wins majority approval among registered Republicans and fails among conservatives.

Brennan added that Wilson does less well now against Democrats Brown and Garamendi because his standing has slipped and not because the Democrats’ position has improved. Relatively few--even among Democrats--know much about either Democratic candidate at this point, he said.

But with more than a year before the gubernatorial election, Wilson has a long time to overcome his unpopularity with voters. Wilson is a dogged campaigner who has demonstrated an ability to bounce back from adversity.

He is also expected to have the luxury of winning renomination in the GOP primary next June without significant opposition. Brown and Garamendi already have indicated they will be fighting a bitter battle for the Democratic nomination to challenge Wilson next fall.

Still, Brennan said, Wilson appears to suffer the sort of problems that plagued Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican George Bush when they sought second terms: a bad economy coupled with a perception of weak leadership.

When asked why they do not like the Wilson, those who gave him poor job marks cited his economic policies (16%), said he is ineffectual (14%), do not like his positions on illegal immigration (12%) and believed he has hurt education (10%). Weakness and insensitivity were cited by 8% each.

“Wilson clearly needs more than the immigration issue to vault him out of the political pits,” Brennan said.

On other subjects, the poll found that:

* In a hypothetical Democratic primary matchup, Brown gets the support of 36% of registered Democrats to Garamendi’s 19%. In a runoff against Wilson, Brown led the governor by 15 points and Garamendi topped Wilson by 18 points. In September, Brown led by 8 points and Garamendi led by 10.

* Most Californians--71%--reject the notion that the state should be divided into three new states because it is too big to govern. Assemblyman Stan Statham (R-Oak Run) has proposed the division of California and is attempting to get the Legislature to put the issue on the 1994 state ballot as an advisory matter, to measure public sentiment for and against it.

The proposal even trailed in the counties that would be in the new Northern California state, where sentiment for the plan is strongest, by 57% to 30%. In the proposed South California, the margin of opposition was 72% to 18%. Central California residents were against it 72% to 20%.

* Residents remain ambivalent about the North American Free Trade Agreement--30% supporting it, 33% opposed and 37% undecided.

* President Clinton is winning a 51% job approval rating from Californians against 39% who disapprove. That is just about what it was in September, before the U.S. roles in Somalia and Haiti became flash points of debate. Clinton’s health care plan is favored in California by 52% to 32%.

* Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) continues to make a strong favorable impression on voters, 59% positive to 33% negative. In potential matchups for election to a full term in 1994, Feinstein runs ahead of Republican Bill Dannemeyer of Fullerton by 49% to 30% among registered voters, and 47% to 29% over Rep. Michael Huffington (R-Santa Barbara). Most voters know little about either Republican, the poll indicated.

The subject of illegal immigration has by no means withered as a potent political issue. But the number of poll respondents who identified illegal immigration as one of California’s top two issues declined from 16% in September to 11% this month.

When Californians were asked in September to volunteer the state’s most pressing issues, immigration ranked fourth after the economy, employment and crime. This month, it fell to fifth place as education moved up to third. Moreover, majorities of Californians sampled declined to identify immigration as a substantial cause of California’s economic or crime problems.

Wilson still benefits from his position on the issue, however. Among the 31% who believe Wilson is doing a good job, 23%--the largest single group--said they liked him because of his tough positions on illegal immigration.

With the Legislature and Wilson adopting an on-time state budget and achieving one of the most productive legislative session in years, some analysts expected Wilson’s standing to rise. Wilson made a high-visibility tour of California this fall to sign into law many of the bills passed in the final days of the 1993 legislative session.

But according to The Times poll, only 19% of those surveyed thought Wilson and the Legislature did their best on the budget this year--no better, in fact, than after the divisive 1991 session.

But the Legislature’s job approval rating at 26% was worse even than Wilson’s. It was up from a low of 13% after the 1992 budget stalemate.

THE TIMES POLL: Views on California

After a late summer boomlet, Gov. Pete Wilson’s standing with Californians has declined, as has concern over the illegal immigration issue. Many Wilson backers are attracted by the governor’s immigration stand. But there is no consensus that illegal immigrants cause most of the state’s crime and economic problems.

10/93

* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pete Wilson is handling his job as governor? Approve: 31% Disapprove: 55 Don’t know: 14

* Why do you approve of the way Wilson is handling his job? (Asked of those who approve of the way Wilson is handling his job.)* His views on illegal immigration: 23% He’s doing the best he can: 18 Just like him/no particular reason: 16 Improving the economy, like economic policies: 13 Controlled state spending/budget well managed: 9

* Why do you disapprove of the way Wilson is handling his job? (Asked of those who disapprove of the way Wilson is handling his job.)* Hasn’t helped economy/states economy in bad shape: 16% Does nothing/ineffective: 14 His views on illegal immigration: 12 Service cuts/cut state services/service cuts hurt people: 12 Policies hurt education, cut back education: 10

* What do you think is the most important problem facing California today?*

10/93 9/93 Unemployment 34 27 Crime/gangs 30 27 Economy 20 21 Education 18 14 Immigration/illegal aliens 11 16

* How much of the crime and street violence in California do you think is caused by illegal immigrants? Great deal: 17 Good amount: 28 Not too much: 35 Hardly any: 14 Don’t know: 6

* How much blame should illegal immigrants get for the current problems in California’s economy? Great deal: 11 Good amount: 29 Not too much: 38 Hardly any: 19 Don’t know: 3

* Accepted up to two replies; top five responses listed.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,718 adult residents of California--including 1,301 registered voters--by telephone from Saturday to Tuesday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and labor force participation. The margin of error for the total sample and the registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For other subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as the wording of questions and the order in which questions are presented.