Crime in the Valley: Some Clues Behind the Numbers

The good news is that there was less crime in the San Fernando Valley in 1993 than there was the year before. Still, it was difficult to find comfort in the numbers. That’s because crime in 1993 involved a particularly bad blend of extremes and senselessness.

An elderly man died at the hands of a carjacker while on a simple errand to refuel his vehicle at a gas station. A pregnant Toluca Lake woman was knifed to death at an automated teller machine in Sherman Oaks. And who would have imagined that a mother picking up her daughter from a Bible study class in Northridge would be shot to death in front of her son, even after she had surrendered her purse to robbers.

There was cause for concern in what ought to have been the most routine and previously worry-free matters, such as sending children off to school in the morning--and leaving them there. Parents fretted over a sex offender who preyed on children in the northeast Valley, a serial child molester operating in the West Valley who remains at large, and campus shootings that left a Reseda High School student dead and a Chatsworth High School student seriously wounded. The latter was shot because his attackers apparently wanted his book bag.

The unease created by such inexplicable mayhem was no doubt accentuated by the burgeoning problem of graffiti vandalism. It served as a constant reminder of neighborhoods under siege.

AND OVER THE LONGER TERM, CRIME IS STILL UP: But there was substance in the fear. It was backed up by the fact that Valley crime is still a much greater problem than it was five years ago.

In 1988, for example, there were roughly nine homicides per month in the Valley. Through November, 1993, the average was 11 per month. Divide the time involved in every 24-hour period by the frequency and types of crime and you are left with the following facts: On average, a rape occurred every 17 hours in the Valley in the first 11 months of 1993, an increase of 14% over 1988. A robbery occurred every 76 minutes last year.

That rate represented an increase of 43% over 1988. A case of aggravated assault occurred every 49 minutes, a 30% rise over 1988. Burglaries took place nearly every half hour, an increase of 9%, and a car was stolen every 26 minutes, up 12% from five years ago.

WHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED, AND WHAT CAN BE DONE: If Valley voters are not kicking themselves for helping to defeat a modest property-tax increase last April that would have beefed up the Los Angeles Police Department by about 1,000 officers, they ought to be. That’s because there were countless reminders in 1993 of just how understaffed and under-equipped the LAPD really is. Consider one particularly disturbing example involving that serial child molester. There might well be several likely suspects among the 20,198 registered sex offenders in the county, but there’s a problem. “We at this time don’t have a system that tracks registered sex offenders,” said an LAPD spokesman assigned to the task force tracking the molester. “At one time, we were trying to develop one, but it had to be scrapped for lack of funds.”

What should Valley residents do? The answer, in part, is that they should carefully weigh Mayor Richard Riordan’s and Chief Willie Williams’ ambitious plan to modernize and increase the size of the LAPD, and they ought to be prepared to pay a fair price for it.

It was also learned that the LAPD and school-based security officials need to do a far better job of communicating with each other when similar crimes occur. That might have helped discern the serial child molester’s pattern much earlier.

A WELCOME AND NECESSARY RESOLVE: There were several laudable examples last year in which residents here decided to play a role in making their communities safer. It was seen in the case of hundreds of volunteers fanning out to distribute flyers warning families about the child molester, in those who were willing to provide a ride or an escort to a child on his or her way to school. There were community members who went beyond the usual role of Neighborhood Watch groups to walk their streets and report suspicious behavior to authorities.

It was found in the work of the Community Tagger Task Force, made up of about 300 Valley volunteers who have used privately raised funds to photograph graffiti vandals and pass the information on to police.

It was seen in the fearlessness of folks like Viviana Guerra of North Hollywood, whose court testimony has sent five gang members to jail, and Hannah Dyke of Sylmar, who apprehended taggers referred by the courts to clean up the mess they have made.

Such involvement is badly needed and may help authorities roll back crime to even lower levels than those recorded five years ago.

A Rising Tide

Monthly averages of crimes reported to Valley LAPD stations in 1988-93.

Robberies 1988: 322 1993*: 567 Increase: 43%

Aggravated assaults 1988: 615 1993*: 874 Increase: 30%

Homicides 1988: 9 1993*: 11 Increase: 18%

Rapes 1988: 36 1993*: 42

Increase: 14%

Auto thefts 1988: 1,490 1993*: 1,689 Increase: 12%

Burglaries 1988: 1,244 1993*: 1,361

Increase: 9%

*As of Nov. 30

Source: LAPD