Quake Cost Put at Up to $20 Billion : Disaster: But Wilson Administration says damage figure could also be as low as $13 billion. Political debate continues over how the state will fund its share.

The Wilson Administration on Tuesday estimated the total cost of the Northridge earthquake at between $13 billion and $20 billion, which would make it the state’s most devastating natural disaster and one of the nation’s worst natural calamities.

State Finance Director Russell Gould pegged the total quake price tag for federal, state and local governments at about $11.6 billion, including everything from removing debris and fixing water lines to providing housing assistance and rebuilding highways.

Gould cautioned that the overall damage estimate--initially set as high as $30 billion--will continue to change, especially as the full extent of damage to underground utility, sewer and water lines becomes known.

“This is something that’s our best estimate,” he said. “But I’m not guaranteeing it wouldn’t change as we know more.”

State officials cited several factors for the wide range in their damage estimate, including the continuing aftershocks that trigger more damage, continuing scrutiny of damaged structures and the rising number of applications for relief by individuals and business owners.

“The big variable is private loss. The bottom line is we don’t know yet what the private loss is,” said Andy McLeod, a state official assisting the California Office of Emergency Services.

Although the federal government is picking up most of the cost for damage to public facilities, California’s tab is estimated at $1.9 billion, Gould said. Local governments face a bill of about $135 million.

How the state, with its ailing economy, will finance its share of the quake costs has become a subject of political dispute in the Capitol.

Gov. Pete Wilson has refused to commit himself, pending release of firm government cost estimates. Even after the figures were disclosed Tuesday, Wilson would not spell out his plan.

Leslie Goodman, Wilson’s chief spokeswoman, said “now that we have a better sense of the estimates, the governor will take a look at what he has to do. He will review this and very quickly be telling people how he intends to pay for it.

“He’s expressed a preference for bonds over taxes. He has not ruled anything out. He’s said it’s important to look at all the options,” Goodman said.

But state Senate President Pro Tem Bill Lockyer (D-Hayward) said that legally only about half the state’s $1.9-billion share can be made up by bonds. “They (the Wilson Administration) need another form of financing,” he said.

He said that in the aftermath of the 1989 Loma Prieta quake, then-Gov. George Deukmejian moved much more quickly to craft a response. The Loma Prieta quake caused about $6 billion in damage, officials said Tuesday.

Lockyer said that “the situation cries out for executive leadership. We’ve postponed confronting difficult decisions while a damage inventory was conducted. . . . It’s now imperative that we move forward expeditiously.”

While politicians debate the best approach, state officials have retained the services of EQE, a San Francisco-based seismic consulting firm to calculate the quake’s toll. Within days of the Jan. 17 quake, Wilson estimated the total damage at between $15 billion and $30 billion, an amount roughly equal to the nation’s worst disaster, 1992’s Hurricane Andrew in Florida and Louisiana.

The initial estimate was based on a computer model, using observations from the first day or two after the quake, plus geographic, demographic and economic data. That was combined with information about the location of the quake in a heavily populated urban area, state officials said.

Richard Andrews, of the Office of Emergency Services, acknowledged that the $30-billion figure was suggested against a backdrop of “a great deal of uncertainty” about the extent of the damage, especially to large facilities.

In the ensuing three weeks, state authorities have compiled a more refined portrait of the damage, prompting them to lower the initial estimate. Now, they are basing the revised estimate on data from 300,000 people who have applied for disaster assistance and reports from hundreds of inspections of private residences, highways, schools and hospitals.

Coupled with studies of ground motion during the quake and other geologic analysis, Andrews said he expects the toll to be between $13 billion and $20 billion.

Finance Director Gould said he was more confident using the $11.6-billion cost that government agencies must shoulder. State officials provided a partial breakdown that showed $3.4 billion for repairs to public facilities and initial relief; $1.45 billion to repair bridges and highways; $717 million for grants to families, and $575 million to repair damaged or destroyed houses or apartments.

Of the $11.6 billion in costs to government, the federal government is expected to pick up about $9.5 billion. At least $800 million has already been committed and another $8.6 billion was approved last week by the House of Representatives. The aid bill was sent to the Senate on Tuesday.

The state, according to Wilson’s office, is responsible for $1.9 billion, with $135 million in local government costs.

On Tuesday, Wilson urged swift Senate passage of the emergency quake bill. In a letter to Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Wilson said “any delay could threaten the flow of urgently needed funds.”

While pressuring Congress for help, the Wilson Administration last week opposed a bill by Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco) that would raise $1.5 billion from a temporary sales tax increase. Even so, it was approved by the Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee.

Meanwhile, legislation to temporarily increase the state gasoline tax by 2 cents a gallon to raise an estimated $1 billion for earthquake-related highway repair and retrofit work was introduced Tuesday by Sen. Quentin L. Kopp (I-San Francisco), chairman of the Transportation Committee. The proposed gas tax hike would be in effect for 3 1/2 years from July 1 to Jan. 1, 1998.

Lockyer, who just became Senate leader, said raising funds for the state’s share will likely require a mix of financing measures, including either a sales tax increase or a boost in the gasoline tax.

“Without the governor’s involvement, I’m skeptical about the ability of each house to generate a two-thirds (vote) agreement (to approve a tax hike),” Lockyer said.

Times staff writers Daniel M. Weintraub in Los Angeles and Paul Jacobs and Jerry Gillam in Sacramento contributed to this story.

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