PACIFIC 10 BASKETBALL / DAN HAFNER : Will Kidd Leave Before Reaching Final Goal?

When Jason Kidd, probably the most sought-after prep basketball player to choose California, decided to play at Berkeley, he cited three goals:

--In his freshman season (1992-93), he wanted to help the Bears reach the NCAA tournament.

--In this, his sophomore season, he wanted Cal to reach the Final Four.

--And next season, his plan called for the Bears to win their first national title since 1959.

The ease with which Cal advanced to the round of 16 last season made it appear possible that the 6-foot-4 playmaker would achieve all three. After winning eight of their last nine Pacific 10 games, the Bears defeated Louisiana State and Duke before losing to Kansas in the tournament.

It now seems likely that Kidd, one of the country’s best players, will not achieve either of his last two goals.

It won’t be his fault if Cal doesn’t make it to the Final Four this season. Injuries have cost the team two starters and an outstanding freshman guard, Randy Duck.

As for 1994-95, Kidd will probably be playing in the NBA by then. And junior Lamond Murray, also one of the nation’s top players, might turn professional as well. Nobody has said any of this officially, but it seems obvious that Kidd would be at home on a higher level.

The handicap of trying to carry a team with only seven players is proving to be a bit too much for Kidd and Murray. Both seem to be slowly wearing down. Their play enabled the Bears to build seemingly comfortable leads against UCLA and USC last week, before they wilted.

Cal managed to outlast the Bruins, but Saturday the young, physical Trojans simply wore the Bears out. The same thing figures to happen in the NCAA tournament.

Few realize how important Alfred Grigsby and K.J. Roberts, the missing regulars, were to this team. As a sophomore last season, the 6-9 Grigsby was the fourth-leading scorer and No. 3 rebounder. He kept Monty Buckley on the bench. Still, with more playing time because of Grigsby’s absence, Buckley is becoming a solid player.

One of Todd Bozeman’s first moves after replacing Lou Campanelli as coach in February of 1993 was to put Roberts in the lineup opposite Kidd at guard. Roberts played a major role in the Bears’ late spurt. He played so well that the man he replaced, Jerod Haase, transferred to Kansas.

Both Grigsby and Roberts were lost early this season, probably because each tried to return too soon from injuries. Grigsby, who has a hamstring tear, played in three games, then re-injured himself. Roberts, who has a stress fracture in his foot, played in six games before he had to sit out the rest of the season. Duck broke his arm after playing in the first 20 games.

With four more Pac-10 games--at home this week against Oregon and Oregon State, then on the road next week at Washington and Washington State--the Bears, 10-4 in the conference, still have a chance to win the title. But it’s a slim one at best.

Arizona and UCLA, tied at the top with 12-3 records, each have three games remaining. The Bears would have to win all four, and the Bruins and the Wildcats lose at least one each, to tie for the title. Cal would win either a three-way or two-way tie.

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After a hard-fought victory over Oregon on Saturday at Eugene, Arizona is in the best position to win another Pac-10 title.

The Wildcats, who are at home against Washington and Washington State this week, have won six games in a row since losing to the Huskies in Seattle. Arizona will finish conference play on March 12 against Arizona State at Tempe.

While the Wildcats have been coming on strong, the Sun Devils have been slumping.

“I like our chances,” said Khalid Reeves, Wildcat senior guard. “I like the position we’re in. We just have to keep bearing down in our last three games.”

UCLA, which won the Pac-10 title in 1991-92 (the only season Arizona hasn’t been the champion since 1987), will play its last three games on the road.

Even if they get past the suddenly aroused Trojans tonight at the Sports Arena, the Bruins won’t be home free. They play Oregon at Eugene on March 12, and the Ducks have shown steady improvement. If Arizona and UCLA finish in a tie, the Wildcats would win the title because of a better record against Cal, which would finish third.