THE TIMES POLL : Wilson Trails Despite Brighter Economic View

Californians have turned the corner toward optimism about the state’s troublesome economy, defining the state’s prospects and their own financial security in the rosiest terms in years. But the change in attitude has yet to substantially benefit Gov. Pete Wilson, who continues to lag behind his major Democratic opponents in gubernatorial election matchups.

According to a Los Angeles Times poll, the perennially embattled Wilson is creeping closer to state Treasurer Kathleen Brown and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, but he would still lose the election to either if the election were held today.

Brown would defeat Wilson 51% to 41%, a smaller margin than the 49% to 34% registered in a Times poll last October. Garamendi would beat Wilson by a spare 47% to 42%, down from October’s 49% to 31%, the survey found. The governor gained a marginal boost from his recent emphasis on the issue of crime, which along with the economy ranks uppermost among the concerns of the state’s residents, the poll found.

In the Democratic primary, however, the race was substantially unchanged. Brown continues to run well ahead of Garamendi, defeating him 39% to 25%. The third well-known candidate in the race, state Sen. Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica), has not even risen to the level of a spoiler, garnering just 8%. Hayden was also the only Democrat losing to Wilson--55% to 33%--in a hypothetical matchup.

“We’re getting a marginal improvement for Wilson, who keeps raising himself a few points here and there,” said John Brennan, director of the Times Poll. “But the whole level is still low.”

The other contest of note before voters this year remains a runaway for Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who pummels both Rep. Michael Huffington (R-Santa Barbara) and former Rep. William Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton), her major Republican foes. Despite the more than $1 million he has poured into television advertising this spring, Huffington is still an enigma to most Californians, 76% of whom say they don’t know enough about him to judge him.

The Times Poll surveyed 1,608 Californians--1,211 of them registered voters--between March 26 and 29. The margin of sampling error overall is 3 points in either direction; among Democrats or Republicans exclusively, it is 5 points.

The changing attitude about the state’s economy was the most remarkable element of the poll. Undeniably, Californians are feeling better about the state’s prospects--but the change was relative and most are clearly still worried about the economy. It was also evident that a broad undercurrent of negativism exists about the future in general.

Asked whether the state was going in the right direction or headed down the wrong track, nearly two-thirds of the respondents said it was on the wrong track. Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives agreed, the poll found. The finding was not good news for Wilson because it suggests that voters feel a need for change.

Nevertheless, it was an improvement from October’s poll, in which 74% said the state was on the wrong track. And on the more explicit questions about the economy, Californians were more positive than they have been in any Times survey taken since 1991.

The percentage of residents who feel the state is in a “serious” recession dropped to 34%, down from 51% last fall. About one in seven described the state’s economy as “robust” and 85% said it was shaky. Of those, 31% described the economy as “very shaky,” down from 43% in October.

Although the latter reading was hardly a glowing endorsement, it was the lowest percentage registered since December, 1991. Asked how the economy would be in three months, 22% said it would be better, the highest in almost two years. An identical percentage said they expect unemployment to diminish in their area within three months.

Optimism extended to the pocketbook. Overall, 65% said that they consider their personal finances to be “secure,” compared to 33% who said they were on economically shaky ground. The last time more than 60% of Californians were so confident of their own finances was December, 1991.

Whether Wilson can extend confidence about the state’s economy to confidence in the state’s incumbent leader is at the core of the governor’s race. At least at this point, Wilson can count on little benefit from the economic turnaround.

He can, however, lay claim to incremental improvements in the way Californians judge him. The percentage of Californians who say he is doing a good job rose from 31% in October to 39%, though half those surveyed disapprove of his tenure.

In both increasing his job approval rating and closing the gap between himself and the Democrats, Wilson is leaning on the issue of crime, the poll showed. Thirty-one percent said that Wilson’s approach to crime had made them think better of him, while 19% made them think less favorably of him.

For Brown, in contrast, proposals on crime made little difference to the electorate. And the weapon Brown has tried to wield against Wilson--that he was derelict in allowing the release of repeat rapist Melvin Carter--has had little impact. Most Californians, whether they live in the southern or northern part of the state, said Wilson was not to blame for Carter’s release from prison.

Wilson’s hold on the issue of crime is hardly firm, however. Although 37% said he has the best ideas about crime and only 16% said that of Brown, the margin narrows significantly when Wilson and all of the Democrats are compared. Then, Wilson barely ekes out an advantage--37% compared to 33% for Democrats as a whole.

All told, Wilson has the edge on two of the four most important issues to Californians--crime and immigration--while Brown was judged to have the edge on education. In the fourth area, the economy, Wilson was seen by 30% as having the best ideas while Brown was endorsed by 25% and Garamendi by 18%. But here, too, Wilson’s hold was not solid: People said Democrats overall had better ideas on the economy than Wilson, 47% to 30%.

Wilson’s weaknesses showed up in the head-to-head matchups with Democrats. Brown’s lead over Wilson was fueled by support from the moderates and independents whose votes generally determine success in California. Among independents, Brown led 50% to 33%; among self-described moderates she won 58% to 33%. She was running even with Wilson among men, and holding a wide advantage among women, 56% to 36%. Her potential weakness was that 40% of voters say they do not know enough about her to rate her.

Brown, however, may be poised to take advantage of a shift in the state’s gender politics. Asked whether it was “time we had a woman governor,” 52% said it was. The last time a woman was running for governor--Feinstein in 1990--that figure rose only to 40%. The ensuing years, however, have seen Feinstein and Barbara Boxer elected to the U.S. Senate from California, the first time a state has sent two women to its highest elective positions in Washington.

Like Brown, Garamendi defeated Wilson among women, but his hold on that majority of the electorate was not as strong as Brown’s. Garamendi also received support among moderates and independents, but he was weaker within the Democratic Party than Brown.

The race for the Senate was a straightforward blowout, with Feinstein solidifying her position as the state’s most popular politician. Sixty-three percent of voters said they had a favorable impression of the first-term senator, who is now making her third statewide bid in four years.

By a 52%-24% margin, Californians approved of the way Feinstein is doing her job, an improvement from last year. Boxer had a smaller approval rating, 39%, with 27% disapproving.

The difficulty any candidate would have in taking on Feinstein was apparent in the survey, and just as apparent was the current anonymity of those who are seeking to defeat her. Feinstein beat Huffington, a first-term congressman from Santa Barbara, by a margin of 58% to 28%. She bested Dannemeyer, a former Orange County congressman, by 56% to 30%.

It is within the Republican primary that voters expressed the most confusion, because none of the participants is particularly well known.

Huffington’s million-dollar ad campaign has so far failed to raise his image much even among Republicans, 68% of whom said they did not know enough about him to say whether they liked him. Similarly, 69% of voters and 60% of Republicans said they did not know enough about Dannemeyer, despite his years in Congress.

Not surprisingly, most Republicans asked about the Senate race--58%--said they did not know whom to support. Twenty-two percent went for Dannemeyer, 13% for Huffington and 7% for Kate Squires, a lawyer and businesswoman from Corona.

Californians’ views were more definitive on two bond issues set to be determined June 7, as well as on one proposal whose authors are aiming for the November ballot.

Two-thirds of California voters favored releasing $2 billion in bonds to help the state rebuild from the Jan. 17 Northridge earthquake and to strengthen the state’s bridges. Sixty-five percent said they favored a $1-billion bond issue to pay for public school construction and remodeling. Both were supported by voters across the political spectrum.

A more controversial measure, a proposal that would exclude illegal immigrants from attending public schools or receiving social services, also was popular, winning the support of 62% of voters.

THE TIMES POLL: Wilson Still Trails Potential Opponents

Gov. Pete Wilson’s political position has improved but he still trails Democrats Kathleen Brown and John Garamendi in hypothetical trial heats. Brown continues to lead Garamendi for the Democratic nomination.

If the Democratic primary for governor were held today, and the candidates were Kathleen Brown, John Garamendi and Tom Hayden, who would you vote for: Among Democrats Brown: 39% Garamendi: 25% Hayden: 8% Don’t know: 28% *

If the general election were held today and the candidates for governor were Garamendi and Gov. Pete Wilson, who would you vote for:

Garamendi: 47% Wilson: 42% Don’t know: 9% Someone else: 2% *

If the general election were held today and the candidates for governor were Brown and Wilson, who would you vote for: Brown: 51% Wilson: 41% Don’t know: 6% Someone else: 2% *

Which candidate for governor, if any, do you think has the best ideas for handling these issues: ECONOMY Wilson: 30% Brown: 25% Garamendi: 18% Hayden: 4% None: 4% Don’t know: 19% CRIME Wilson: 37% Brown: 16% Garamendi: 14% Hayden: 3% None: 6% Don’t know: 24% IMMIGRATION Wilson: 35% Brown: 11% Garamendi: 9% Hayden: 3% None: 8% Don’t know: 34% EDUCATION Wilson: 18% Brown: 34% Garamendi: 9% Hayden: 4% None: 7% Don’t know: 28% *

If the Republican primary for U.S. senator was held today, and the candidates were William Dannemeyer, Michael Huffington and Kate Squire, who would you vote for: Dannemeyer: 22% Huffington: 13% Squires: 7% Don’t know: 58% *

Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track? (Among all adults / Registered voters)

Right direction Wrong track March ’94 25% 63% Oct. ’93 18% 74% Sept. ’93 20% 68% March ’93 18% 72% Oct. ’92 14% 80% Sept. ’92 12% 82% May ’92 13% 80% April ’92 19% 73% Dec. ’91 18% 69% Oct. ’91 28% 60% May ’91 31% 59%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,608 California adults by telephone from March 26 through 29. The sample included 1,211 registered voters, 549 of whom are Democrats and 458 Republicans. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total and registered-voter samples is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for Democrats and Republicans it is 5 points. For certain other sub-groups the error margin may vary. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.